From Zeroes to Heroes

The Royals, Twins, Giants, and Nationals are all looking much better than they did last year. The Twins and Giants are suddenly contenders while the Royals and Nationals are far from the bottom of their respective leagues. Below is a ranking of the most up-and-coming teams in baseball. The record to the right of the team name is what I project to be their record in 2009.
1. San Francisco Giants, 87-75: The Giants have a scary rotation (view it below) and have an improving offense. Their pitching staff features the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, a future Hall of Famer, one of the best young pitchers in baseball, a former Cy Young Award winner and an up-and-coming power lefty. If any of those guys goes down, they still have a very good lefty in Noah Lowry, and two of the top pitching prospects in baseball--Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson-- in the minors. The playoffs are in reach for the Giants, especially in the mediocre NL West. Their sucess rests on the shoulders of their young offense--which luckily has quite a few future All Stars in Pablo Sandoval, Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa. If these three produce, and provide some help to Rowand, Winn, Lewis and Molina the sky is the limit.

Rotation: A-

1. Tim Lincecum (A)
2. Randy Johnson (B)
3. Matt Cain (B+)
4. Barry Zito (C)
5. Jonathan Sanchez (B-/B)
6. Noah Lowry (B-)

Bullpen: B

CL Brian Wilson (B)
SU Bob Howry (B-)
LHP Jeremy Affeldt (B)
MR Alex Hinshaw (B+)
MR Sergio Romo (B)
LRP Merkin Valdez (C+)

Lineup: B

LF Fred Lewis (B-)
RF Randy Winn (B-)
CF Aaron Rowand (B-)
1B Travis Ishikawa (B)
3B Pablo Sandoval (B+)
C Bengie Molina (B)
SS Edgar Renteria (B-)
2B Kevin Frandsen (B-)

Bench B+
OF Nate Schierholtz (B/B+)
Util Juan Uribe (B-)
Util Eugenio Velez (B-)
CI Rich Aurilia (C+)
C Steve Holm (C+/B-)


2. Minnesota Twins 90-72: The Twins are back in business, and this time without Santana. Their outfield is stocked and included Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and the very solid Denard Span. Jason Kubel could go .300-30-100 some day at DH, and of course, Mauer and Morneau are there to lead the way. More importantly is their improvements to their rotation. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano provide some serious umph to the rotation, while Blackburn and Perkins are solid and will eat some innings in the back of the rotation.

The best part about the 2009 Twins is their depth. If anyone gets injured, they'll have a more-than-good-enough player to replace him. Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Mike Redmond would all be starting on other teams, so to have them on their bench is a luxury. Defensively the Twins have never been better and that bullpen is looking hotter than hell with the young guns Joe Mijares and Jesse Crain. Playoffs? Almost definitely.

Rotation B+/A-

1. Scott Baker (B+)
2. Francisco Liriano (A-)
3. Kevin Slowey (B)
4. Nick Blackburn (B)
5. Glen Perkins (B-)

Bullpen B+

CL Joe Nathan (A)
SU Jesse Crain (B+)
MR Matt Guerrier (B)
LHP Craig Breslow (B+)
MR Jose Mijares (B)
MRP Luis Ayala (C+)
LRP Phil Humber (B-)

Lineup A-

LF Denard Span (B-)
2B Alexi Casilla (C+)
C Joe Mauer (A)
1B Justin Morneau (A-)
DH Jason Kubel (B)
RF Michael Cuddyer (B-)
3B Joe Crede (C+/B-)
CF Carlos Gomez (B-)
SS Nick Punto (C)

Bench A-

Util Brendan Harris (B)
OF Delmon Young (B+)
C Mike Redmond (B-)
INF Brian Buscher (C)
C Jose Morales (B-)


3. Kansas City Royals, 81-81: The Royals aren't the Red Sox or Yankees, but they're a hell of a lot better than years past. The last time they made a run at the playoffs was about a half-decade ago when Tony Pena was manager. Since then they've been the worst in the AL. Their rotation is jumping leads and bounds toward respectability, their bullpen is one of the better ones in the AL and their offense is almost in the top 5. Zach Greinke and Gil Meche are the anchors of the staff, Meche being an incredibly free agent buy for the Royals. Danny Cortes and Luke Hochever have a bright future, but still need some work. Kyle Davies is poised to have a Kevin-Slowey-type season and Brian Bannister is looking to make a comeback.

Their offense is their strength. Coco Crisp was acquired from the Red Sox for Ramon Ramirez, and is looking to hit about 10-15 homers and steal 30-35 bases. David DeJesus is as solid as they come, and will probably hit near .300 with 12 homers and some good baserunning in the 2 hole. The 28-year-old Mike Aviles is underrated, even after putting up a .326 batting average in 2008, and could hit .300, 20 homers, and 40 doubles in a full season. Another underrated producer is Jose Guillen who has a cannon in right field and can usually hit 20-25 homers in 500-600 at bats. Both Butler and Gordon haven't lived up to their potential just yet, but if they do, you'll have two annual All-Stars on your hands. Butler could easily win a batting title, and Gordon will hit 40 homers some day. Alberto Callaspo doesn't get the credit he deserves, and he'll hit near .300 and play a solid second base for the Royal Blues in 2009. Miguel Olivo is all power and decent defense, and he will split at bats with the solid John Buck. Super Utility man Mark Teahen will get 400 at bats, and can put up 15 homers and a .280 batting average, while Killa Kila Ka'aihue could hit .300 some day. Looking ahead to 2009, they could make a run at the playoffs, but if not, they'll atleast be a .500 team.


Rotation B-
1. Gil Meche (B+)
2. Zach Greinke (B+)
3. Kyle Davies (B-)
4. Brian Bannister (C+)
5. Horacio Ramirez/ Luke Hochevar (C+)

Bullpen B+/A-

CL Joakim Soria (A)
SU Juan Cruz (B/B+)
LHP Ron Mahay (B)
SU Kyle Farnsworth (B)
MR Robinson Tejeda (B-)
MR Joel Peralta (C+)
LRP Jamey Wright (C+/B-)

Lineup A-

CF Coco Crisp (B)
LF David DeJesus (B)
SS Mike Aviles (B+/A-)
RF Jose Guillen (B)
3B Alex Gordon (B/B+)
DH Billy Butler (B/B+)
1B Mike Jacobs (B-)
2B Alberto Callaspo (B-)
C Miguel Olivo (C+)

Bench B

Util Mark Teahen (B-/B)
C John Buck (C+/B-)
1B Ryan Shealy (C+/B-)
INF Willy Bloomquist (C+)
1B Kila Ka'aihue (B/B+)


4. Washington Nationals, 76-86: The Nationals have a good lineup, and a deep one. They have power and speed in Dukes and Milledge. They have a developing 30 homerun hitter in Ryan Zimmerman and they have an annual 40 home run, on base machine in Adam Dunn. At short they have the very solid All Star Cristian Guzman, and at second they have defensive wizzes Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez. Nick Johnson is coming back from injury and is always a solid producer, and he'll split time with Josh Willingham.

The rotation isn't looking so hot, but it's not looking awful either. John Lannan and Scott Olsen are both solid pitchers and both will pitch 200 innings of 4.00-era-ball. Daniel Cabrera is a question mark, and has always had to the stuff to be an ace. Maybe a change of scenery will bring his potential out. Jordan Zimmerman is a future number 1, and has dominated in spring training, while Shairon Martis is a solid young gun that could post a sub 4.00 era some day. Their bullpen has been rebuilt and has improved dramatically.

Rotation B-

1. John Lannan (B)
2. Scott Olsen (B)
3. Daniel Cabrera (C+)
4. Jordan Zimmerman (B+)
5. Shairon Martis (B-)

Bullpen B

CL Joel Hanrahan (B)
SU Garret Mock (B+)
LHP Joe Beimel (B/B+)
MR Steven Shell (B)
MR Saul Rivera (B)
LRP Wilfedo Ledezma (B-)
LRP Jason Bergmann (B-)

Lineup B

CF Lastings Milledge (B)
SS Cristian Guzman (B-/B)
LF Adam Dunn (B+/A-)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (B)
RF Elijah Dukes (B)
1B Nick Johnson (B)
C Jesus Flores (B)
2B Anderson Hernandez (C)

Bench B-

OF/1B/C Josh Willingham (B-)
INF Alberto Gonzalez (C+)
OF Austin Kearns (B)
Util Ronnie Belliard (B-)
C Wil Nieves (D-)/C Luke Montz (C+)

5. Baltimore Orioles 81-81 (2010):



The Orioles are headed in the right direction, especially with their lineup. They may not compete in the AL East in 2009, but they makes this list because of their 2010 projections. Markakis, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, and Aubrey Huff are all in the top 10 at their positions--with Roberts in the top 5. Adam Jones is solid, can hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases if he finally gets there, and the platoon of Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton deserves a B. Mora has good range and has a nice bat (with no patience however) while Wigginton complements him with power and patience (but no range). Cesar Izturis is a fast and good-fielding shortstop, in the mold of Ray Sanchez while Ryan Freel is a very good utility man. Luke Scott is a nice DH capable of 25 homers annually.

The rotation has considerable issues to address. Although Jeremy Guthrie is as solid as they come, he's the only pitcher in there starting 5 that looks like a solid contender. Koji Uehara will probably be solid and he brings veteran leadership to the staff, while Adam Eaton is likely the worst starting pitcher in the AL. Mark Hendrickson has always been solid but hasn't really started the past few seasons, so he too is a wild card. Rich Hill is a project but still could develop into an ace. The 'pen needs work as well, but looks solid and is anchored by George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Matt Albers and Jim Johnson. Jamie Walker is awful, but a fellow dissapointing pitcher, Danys Baez is still just 31 and could bounce back and be effective again.

What makes the Orioles look promising isn't what they are now, but what they will be. Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are some of the best young arms in the minors, and when they get it going in the MLB they could provide some ace power to the Orioles. Brian Matuz, the second pitcher drafted in 2007, and a lefty, is one of the better pitchers in the minors as well and could be an ace some day--or at lead a solid Mark Mulder type. David Hernanez an Kam Mickolio are both developing into solid prospects as well. Th below pitching rotation is accompanied by the 2010 rotation.

Rotation C- (2010 B-/B)

1. Jeremy Guthrie (B)
2. Koji Uehara (B-/B)
3. Adam Eaton (D+)/ Chris Tillman (B)
4. Mark Hendrickson (C)/ Brian Matusz (B)
5. Rich Hill (B-/B)

Bullpen C (2010 B-)

CL Chris Ray (B)
LHP George Sherrill (B)
SU Matt Albers (B-)
SU Danys Baez (B-)
MR Jim Johnson (B)
LHP2 Jamie Walker (C+)
LRP Radhames Liz (B-)

2010 CL/SU Jake Arrieta (B+)

Lineup B/B+

CF Adam Jones (B)
2B Brian Roberts (A-)
OF Nick Markakis (A-)
1B Aubrey Huff (B/B+)
DH Luke Scott (B-)
LF Felix Pie (B-)
3B Melvin Mora (B-)
C Greg Zaun (C)/ Matt Wieters (A-)
SS Cesar Izturis (C/C+)

Bench B-

CI Ty Wigginton (B)
Util Ryan Freel (B-)
C Chad Moeller (B)
INF Chris Gomez (C)
OF/CI Nolan Reimold (C+/B-)

Minors B+/A-

C Matt Wieters (A-)
SP Chris Tillman (A-)
LHP Brian Matusz (B+)
P Jake Arrieta (B)
SP David Hernandez (B)
LHP Troy Patton (B-)
SP Chorye Spoon (C+/B-)
SP Kam Mickolio (C+/B-)
RP Hayden Penn (C+)

The Bullish & The Bearish: Fantasy Advice on Who to Keep and Who to Get Rid of

Buy

1. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: LaRoche has a career .294 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and a very sexy .897 OPS in the minors. His 2008 debut was horrid, batting well below the "Mendoza Line" with the Pirates and Dodgers. However since 2005, LaRoche has hit over .300 every year, and has slugged about .500 in each of those years. In 1,800 at bats he has also walked 243 times-proving that he as a good eye, even at such a young age. He has been working with his hitting coach to overcome the pressure that ruined his swing in 2008. His Spring has been fantastic.

2. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz shouldn't be compared to Hughes--he's better at every aspect of the game except their small gap in control that favors Hughes. His hammer-curve is one of the best in the minors and his 95 mph riding fastball is often unhittable when he places it well. His 2008 wasn't impressive--he posted an era over 6.00-- but with an aging pitching staff the Sox may very well have Bucky back in the rotation by the All Star Break.

3. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics: Travis Buck is a hell of a hitter, hitting .326 in his minor league career. His line drive swing averages about 45 doubles in a full season, and he could easily go 20 homers and 50 doubles at some point. His horrid concussion kept him sidelined for most of 2008, but his hot September showed that he has recovered. 20 homers, 10 stolen bases, a .280-.300 batting average and 40 doubles is very possible for him this year.

4. Angel Salome, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Outside of his suddenly-decent-defense, Kendall has turned into an awful player. He has absolutely no power, and is unable to hit the ball out of the infield most of the time. He grounds into double plays and his sub .250 batting average was bad even for a catcher. Luckily th Brewers have Salome. The major-league-ready Salome won the AA batting title in his league in 2008 batting .360. He may only be 5'9".but his stocky build and his strong arm make him look like a young pudge. He may never hit more than 20 homers, but a .300 average at some point seems like a decent bet. Buy him now before too much hype makes him an early round fantasy pick. Oh and Brett Lawrie is good too.

5. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees: Most baseball fans know too little about Betances. The kid from the Bronx is a great guy--polite, kind and he regularly attends minor or and major league games to study other pitchers. He is 6'8" and has long arms and legs. He throws 93-97 mph fastballs that have considerable movement, as well as a knuckle curve that is developing into a plus-plus out pitch. He occasionally toys with a changeup, and it may be good at some point, but his two plus pitches are all he needs as of now, and they have made him an elite prospect.

Sell

1. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: In 1,175 at bats Ludwick has 65 homers, a .517 slugging percentage and 209 rbis. Ludwick is on the wrong side of thirty, and those nice career numbers are really only a product of his 2008 performance. He may not regress to an average level, but he certainly won't be as valuable as he was last year unless lightning strikes twice. Now, especially with a crowded outfield, The Cardinals will be more apt to bench Ludwick in unfavorable matchups.

2. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers- Shoulder troubles ruin careers, and that's exactly what is happening to Hurley. Sadly, he hasn't even made a career out of his talent as of now. In his 580 innings in the minors he's struck out 534 and posted a nice 3.97 era, but hasn't blown away his competition. Now with shoulder trouble, his low-mid nineties fastball will regress to average and his breaking stuff will as well. Sell.


3. Greg Smith, LHP, Colorado Rockies- Smith has some elbow trouble and didn't have good stuff to begin with. His 4.16 era in 2008 was a product of the best pitcher's park in baseball, a young arm and some luck. Now in Colorado his era will raise a point, and if he makes it to 150 innings before his arm falls off he'd be lucky. In 190 innings pitched he gave up 21 homeruns. That number of bombs is horrible considering how difficult it is to hit in that stadium. In Colorado, he'll be spanked.

4. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners- Sell him while he's still in the top 100. He has never shown anything but average hitting ability, power and bad fielding. Now that he's an outfielder (not playing third since college) his value is almost nill. He has a career .798 OPS and a 2.74 batting average in the minors and most of those at bats were in AA or below. If he's posting average numbers in the low-mid level minors its hard for me to believe he'll be anything but decent--at best--in the majors.

5. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees- Kennedy doesn't have the talent to be a good major league starter--plus he's an asshole. His 87-90 mph fastball is straight and hittable. His 12-6 curve isn't special and he doesn't control it well, and his Vulcan change is his only plus pitch. His control was supposedly close to Mussina's, but from what I've seen, he's practically Victor Zambrano or Dennis Sarfate with his placement. Sell him now while theres still some hype surrounding him.

No Bull %@#$ in this Bullpen

The Yankees re-constructed bullpen is looking better than ever. It took Girardi just one season to completely revamp a struggling relief staff. Torre was notorious for being a terrible bullpen manager--overtiring young relievers, pulling set up men when they make a single mistake, etc... Girardi took a bunch of journeyman and unexperienced young pitchers and made the second best 'pen in the MLB--next to the Red Sox. Sorry Mets, but you still need work--no amount of money is going to make up for the fact that the back of your pen gives up gopher balls like Caddy Shack. Below is a list of the key pieces of the Yankees' pen in 2009. With Marte and Rivera clearly entrenched in the late innings, the Yankees have a pretty open 'pen to fill with young talent. The number in parenthesis is the pitcher's potential. The number the right of their letter grade, is my grade (based on the usual college grading system) for their current ability.


The New Guns

1. David Robertson, MR, 88 (A-): Robertson is a top 100 prospect, and one of the best young relievers in the MLB. His career MiLB era is an absolutely insane 1.24 in 138 innings. His career line is 12-3, 138 ip, 190 k, .93 whip and a 1.24 era. Jose Ceda is getting a lot of the hype, and he is very good, but Robertson has the better stuff--which is saying a lot. His power 12-6 curve, sider and fastball are all plus pitches. His 4-seamer rides and his 2-seamer dips. He looks to me to be a possible heir to Rivera.

2. Phil Coke, LHR, 85 (B+)- Outside of Marte, who actually did a better job of getting out righties than lefties in 2008, the Yankees haven't had a good lefty in the bullpen since Mike Stanton. Mike Myers was a bust, and the parade of shit that Torre chose to use didn't include one effective lefty. Phil Coke didn't allow a single earned run in his September callup in 2008, and is 2-0 with a 1.86 era this spring. His 94 mph 4 seamer and his slider are both top of the line. He finally came in to his own in 2007, and now in 2009, he looks to be a lock for the 'pen.

3. Mark Melancon, CL, 78 (A-)- Melancon is widely considered to be the heir to Rivera. His mid 90's fastball and his slider are both very, very good pitches. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, he went 6-0 and posted a 1.86 ERA in Trenton in 2008. He has an outside shot at the 'pen for 2009, but it looks like the Yankees want him to get some more work in the minors first.

4. Jonathan Albaladejo, MR/LR, 80 (B)- Albaladejo was traded to the Yankees, from the Nationals, for Tyler Clippard. He missed most of 2008 with injury but looks healthy and in shape for 2009. He's a sinker/slider pitcher who has good stuff. He has a low-mid nienties fastball. In 28 career ip in the majors, Alabaledejo has put up a 2.89 era and has struck out 25. He doesn't need any more time in the minors, but with the all-of-sudden-crowed Yankees' bullpen, he may have to start the season in AAA Columbus.

5. Humberto Sanchez, SU/LR/SP, 82 (A-)- Sanchez has a very high ceiling and can really fill any role for the Yankees in 2009. He throws a mid nineties fastball and a top of the line slider. The 6'6" 230 lb righty has a big enough body to be able to shake off his elbow surgery and shouldn't have too many problems in 2009 as long as he stays in shape. His career 4.15 ERA in the minors isn't fantastic, but right before his injury he seemed to put everything together. In 72 innings in 2006, Sanchez put up nice numbers-- a 1.75 era, 86 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Theres a good chance that he'll make the pen for 2009--Girardi loves his stuff.

6. Steven Jackson, MR, 76 (B-)- Steven Jackson has some decent stuff. A good fastball and decent breaking stuff, the southern boy may very well be one of the top 3 Yankees' 'pen prospects. It's highly unlikely that he'll make the 'pen for 2009, at least out of Spring training, but his 2.16 era suggests that the 27-year-old is MLB ready.

7. Kanekoa Texeira, SU, 74 (B)- The young Hawaiian has dominated the minors in his 144 career innings. He;s 11-5 with a 2.24 era and 149 strikeouts. He came with Swisher to the Yankees this Spring and has a very good change of being in the Yankees' pen in 2010.

8. Anthony Claggett, SU, 74 (B)- The 24-year-old Claggett may not be a star, but he is very solid. He throws a 93 mph fastball, a slurve and a solid change. He has a 2.76 ERA in 261 MiLB innings and will be in Scranton in 2009.

9. J.B. Cox, SU, 73 (B/B+)- The former college closer, Cox's stock has fallen since his first few years with the Yankees. His 4.75 ERA with Scranton last year wasn't too promising, but his slider is still one of the best in the minors. He still has a career 2.64 era in the minors, and will probably be a mid-season call-up in 2009.


The Proven Young Guns

1. Jose Veras, SU, 86 (B+)- Veras, hampered by elbow problems for most of his career came into the Yankees' bullpen dealing out of Spring training in 2008. He throws a fastball that can get to 98 mph, a hard slider and a good 12-6 curve. He was the most reliable reliever in the pen for the Yankees in 2008, outside of Bruney, and will probably make a bid to set up for Rivera in 2009.

2. Brian Bruney, SU, 83 (B)- In the minors, Bruney struck out 316 in 285 career ip. He has horrid control 164 in that span, but he had shown flashes of brilliance in 2007, and then put it together in the second half of 2008. He was the Yankees' best set up man in 2008, and he had 19 holds, a 1.83 era and 33 strikeouts in 34 ip. He gace up just 18 hits in the 34 innings but walked 16. He probably can never be a lock as a late inning reliever due to his control, but he can be a top-of-the-line middle reliever.

Back from the Dead


1. Edwar Ramirez, MR, 83 (B+)- The 6'3" 155 pound Ramirez looks 18, but is actually 28. Before learning his forking super-change, Edwar was cut from just about half of the teams in the AL. He learned that pitch in the Indy leagues and immediately won minor league relief pitcher of the year upon returning to professional ball. With Scranton in 2007 Edwar pitched 40 innings, posted a .54 era, gave up just 20 hits and struck out an insane 69. Because of his straight 88 mph fastball, and average slider, Edwar is prone to the homerun, but that superchange is one of the best pitches in the game. The 76 mph pitch, screwballs more than Pedro's circle-change, and makes hitters look absolutely horrible--even when it hangs. For most of 2008, Edwar had an ERA below 3.50, but a tough September made it rise to a still respectable 3.90. He pitched 55 innings and struck out 63.

2. Dan Giese, LR/SP, 81 (B-)- Giese is a nice guy, but never showed much potential in the minors before he hit 30. He helped the Yankees out in 2008, spot-starting and providing long relief. In 52 innings he has a 3.76 era and started 3 games. His minors numbers in AAA Columbus in 2008 were very impressive. He had a very nice 1.98 ERA in 51 innings, and struck out 51.

3. Alfredo Aceves, LR/SP, 78 (B-)- Aceves has an outside shot of making the Yankees 'pen in the long relief/spot starter role. It looks like Giese has his hands on it, but you never know...The 5'10 Mexican, already had a professional career in Mexico before coming to the Yankees. He knows how to pitch and has a lot of experience, but his stuff is only slightly above mediocre. He throws an 88-92 mpg fastball that gets some groundouts and a few different changes and breaking balls. In 140 career innings in the MiLB Aceves posted a 2.62 ERA and a .98 WHIP--so it's obvious he has some potential.

Prospects to Think Twice About

There are quite a few good prospects in this year's BA top 100 and The Scouting Book.com's top 1,000. However, most of these players, won't become anything more than utility players or minor league journeyman. Only a few will become stars or decent major leaguers. Below is a list of prospects that I believe have a considerable chance at failure.

1. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners-- Saunders is a big kid, standing a well-filled-out 6'4," and that's exactly why BA has placed him in the top 100. The guy has never hit above .300, never slugged above .500, strikes out, can't field and has shown absolutely nothing that would suggest that he'll be anything more than a below-average major leaguer. The fascination with him? I'm not sure...

2. Sean West, LHP, Florida Marlins-- West has some serious control issues, and if it wasn't for his left-handed 95 mph fastball, he wouldn't be a top prospect. He's walked 112 in 270 ip in his MiLB career, which includes no stops above A ball. When he gets to AAA or the Majors, umpires will start calling a tighter strikezone, and will make guys like West through his 4-seamer down the heart of the plate. He'll either get crushed for homeruns, or he'll walk too many to be effective. Either way, think twice about him.

3. Brent Lillibridge, MI, Chicago Whitesox-- Lillibridge is a guy you want to see succeed. Although listed at 5'11, 185, Lillibridge is a little guy, truely only about 5'9" 170. His MiLB career numbers aren't prospect-worthy-- hitting .270 and slugging .429. He strikeouts out far too much for a batter with little to zilch power, and after a season in which he hit .220 in AAA, it's become completely clear that he's nothing more than a solid Utility man at best.

4. Jonathan Niese, LHP, New York Mets-- Like Yankees fans, Mets fans make too much of September call-ups. Niese put up lousy MLB numbers (an ERA over 7) and hasn't shown much beyond a decent line in the minors. He's too easily hittable, like Ian Kennedy, and doesn't have the stuff to make up for his propencity to issue walks to good hitters. In 457 MiLb innings Niese has walked 166 and given up 155 hits. In the Florida State League in 2007 he gave up 151 hits in just 134.1 innings pitched.

5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies--I strongly believe that the Matt Holliday trade was more of a desperate "sell high" move, to get rid of Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street while they still have value. Gonzalez strikes out way too much, 487 times in a little over 2200 MiLB at bats. He's never walked more than 48 times in the minors, so he doesn't post a good OBP, and outside of his power, doesn't hit well enough to make up for his short comings. He has poor pitch-recognition and won't be a star. MAYBE he'll be a Mike Cameron type hitter--but nothing more.

The New Kids on the Block

Below is a list of 10 young prospects that are either just now making a name for themselves, or are too young to really be recognizable by most fans.

1. Dellin Betances, 21 yrs, RHP, New York Yankees
10-7, 169 ip, 3.50 era, 197 so

Betances is the next uber-prospect for the Yankees. The kid is barely old enough to order a beer at McSorley's yet he has already compiled impressive minor league numbers. He throws a 95 mph running 4-seamer, a hammer-knuckle-curve and a developing change. Basically, he's the player that Yankees fans believed Phil Hughes was--a hard thrower with an unhittable curve. Hughes throws 88-92 and has a very good 12-6, but his control is what defines him. Betances is a more of a young Kelvim Escobar--living off of an electric arsenal.

2. Nick Hagadone, 23 yrs, LHP, Boston Red Sox
1-2, 34 ip, 1.31 era, 45 so

Hagadone has the makings of a Matt Cain. He's a hard throwing lefty, with a fastball that can touch the upper 90's. Brackman got all of the hype as a Yankees' prospect but the Sox have the better pitcher in Hagadone...period. His fastball is a 4-seamer that sits in the 93-96 mph range, but can be dialed up to 98 at times. His 81 mph slider also has serious bite and tilt, and although it isn't Randy Johnson's, it certainly warrants a comparison between their stuff. His change, sitting in the low eights, is developing. However, because its the same speed as his slider, its never going to be an absolutely necessary pitch for him. All and all, Hagadone isn't too far behind Cain or Price. Theres little difference between Prices's arsenal and Hagadones--the only difference being that Price is a little bit more polished, while Hagadone has a better fastball.

3. Matt Tuiasosopo, 22 yrs, 3B, Seattle Mariners
1914 ab, .279 ba, .356 obp, .399 slg, 37 hr, 28 sb

Michael Saunders, the big Canadian outfielder/corner infielder, gets all of the hype as far as corner infielders in the Mariners' system go. However, Matt Tuiasosopo, who has put up only average stats in his minor league career has finally come in to his own this spring and has shown that he's the better prospect--thus far. He leads the Mariners with a sexy .407 batting average in 57 at bats. Through March 26th, Mr. T. has spanked 7 doubles and 2 homers. His line drive swing will keep his average around .280-.300 once he gets it together in the majors. In Safeco especially, it's unlikely that he'll ever hit more than 15-20 homers, but 40-50 doubles is a given in a full season. With Beltre's injury, and Mr. T's Spring performance, Tuiasosopo has a good shot at making the roster out of Spring Training. If not then he'll be there by the summer for another look.


4. Travis Ishikawa, 25 yrs, 1B, San Francisco Giants
2516 ab, .260 ba, .350 obp, .453 slg, 96 hr

Prior to 2007, Ishikawa was a good prospect but wasn't projected to be anything more than an average hitter--good for a .280 average and possibly 15 homers a year in the majors. In single A San Jose in 2007, however, Ishikawa hit 13 homers in just 198 at bats. In 2008 he started mashing even harder, belting 16 homers, 19 doubles, in just 171 at bats with AAA Fresno. Once again Ishikawa is mashing in home runs, this time with the Giants, and has put up a very nice .313 batting average through March 26th this Spring. There was some talk that Jesus Guzman would take 3rd base and Sandoval would be moved to first, but Ishikawa is a very good fielder, much better than Sandoval or Guzman, and with that strong bat will be slotted at first while Sandy makes some picks at third. Hold on to Ishi, he'll be good for 20 homers in 2009 easily (barring a disaster/injury). After that, a .300 batting average and 100 rbis will come at some point. At the very least he'll be Adam LaRoche.

5. Chris Carter, 26 yrs, DH/OF, Boston Red Sox
2352 ab, .308 ba, .383 obp, .518 slg, 110 hr

The Red Sox' Chris Carter is always mixed up with Oakland's Chris (Vernon) Carter--it was even harder not to mix them up when they both played for the Diamondbacks. The trouble is, once people figure out that they're not the same player, they forget about the Sox's guy and only thought of the other Carter as the top prospect. They shouldn't. The smaller one, the guy that came out of Stanford, the guy on the Sox, has a hell of a bat. This spring he's slugging .704 with 5 home runs, 4 doubles and has put up a .352 batting average. It's becoming more and more evident that Tito Francona desperately needs to find this guy's bat a spot in his lineup. Ramirez is gone and Poppi is too fat to last forever so Chris Carter may be the power bat that the Red Sox need to keep their batting order intimidating--top to bottom.

6. Jesus Guzman, 24 yrs, 3B/OF, San Francisco Giants
2236 ab, .295 ba, .365 obp, .463 slg, 66 hr

Guzman is an absolutely awful defender and has absolutely no place on the ballfield defensively. His fielding percentage falls below .900 with regularity, and was completely exiled from the Oakland Athletics' 40 man roster after failing to put up decent defensive numbers at 3rd, 2nd or short, in 2008. The Giants are giving him his last chance at third, but it looks more and more obvious that they'll move him to a corner outfield spot regardless. Either way, the Athletics made a big mistake letting Guzman go to the G's in the Rule 5. The guy hit .364 with 14 homers in half of a season last year in AA. The year before he had a .909 OPS in the California League. In 47 at bats this spring Guzman is hitting a PHAT .404 with 4 homers, 8 doubles and an .872 slugging percentage in 47 at bats. The Giants have really made an offense out of a bunch of nobodies and a few stars. Ishikawa, Sandoval, Guzman, Velez and Fred Lewis aren't exactly household names, but they will be in 2009, once they start helping that electric pitching staff win games.


7. Ryan Flaherty, 22 yrs, SS, Chicago Cubs
219 ab, .297 ba, .369 obp, .511 slg, 8 hr

Flaherty is a less well-known Gordon Beckham. The other third of the "Big 3" from Vanderbilt (Flaherty, Price and Alvarez), Flaherty is already used to being overshadowed by super-star-talents. So, with Vitters in the system, it's no new situation for Flaherty to be considered to be less than what he is because of flashier (but not better) teammates. Gordon Beckham is a nice comparison for the kid. While Triunfel, Andrus, Cardenas and Escobar get all of the press, Flaherty, Frazier and Gordon Beckham are the three best shortstops currently within reach of the Majors. His line drive stroke and solid plate discipline will suit him well in the MLB, especially in the NL. Someday the kid could win a gold glove, maybe not at short, but certainly at third or second base. He needs to sure up his hands, but his fluid movement, mastery of the figure-4 slide and his strong arm make him a complete package. A batting average between .280 and .300, 15 homers, 10 stolen bases, 40 doubles and an OBP around .380 sounds like the numbers Flaherty can probably put up in the MLB if all goes as planned.

8. Kellen Kulbacki, 23 yrs, OF, San Diego Padres
591 ab, .303 ba, .393 obp, .521 slg, 30 hr

Looking at those career MiLB stats should tell you enough about Ke-Kul. The kid is barely 5'11" and isn't exactly a hulk, but has some serious power. He slugs, he makes great contact and he gets on base--all without striking out at the rate that most 30 homerun hitters do. Somehow, both Keith Law and BA completely missed this kid and he doesn't even make their top 100s. With a wide open roster, and the commitment to rebuild Kulbacki will probably see some time in San Diego this year. But in 2010 looks for him to win a job. He may not impress right away, but when he gets it all there then .300 with 20 homers yearly is pretty reasonable.

9. Shairon Martis, 22, RHP, Washington Nationals
21-15, 416 ip, 3.80 era, 345 so

For the Netherlands, Martis threw a no hitter, without recording any strikeouts in the 2006 WBC. In 2008 for Columbus AAA, Martis thew 41 innings, striking out 31 and posting a 3.02 era before being promoted to the Nationals. He didn't dominate, but he did strike out 23 in 20 innings in the bigs. He probably won't be in the rotation in 2009, but he has good enough breaking stuff and a decent 4-seamer, so he'll likely become a valuable part of their bullpen--like a Ramiro Mendoza or Aaron Heilman type.

10. Chris Gimenez, 26, C, Cleveland Indians
1727 ab, .270 ab, .378 obp, .466 slg, 69 hr

If you average out Gimenez's career stats you'd find that he'd have a .270 batting average, about 23 homers, 100 runs, 39 doubles and about 85 rbi yearly. The guys a catcher! For some reason he's never fallen anywhere near a top 10 MiLB catcher list, and even now, during Spring Training 2009, Gimenez is hitting .357, slugging .879 and posting a .471 obp yet the guy still hasn't attracted any sort of notable press. With their surplus of catchers, the Indians won't even give the guy a roster spot out of Spring Training. Carlos Santana, Kelly Shoppach and Victor Martinez are the only catchers that will get a listen for the 25 man out of Spring Training, but once Santana is moved to third and Martinez is converted to first to save his body, Gimenez will finally get a look for the MLB team.

Prospect Rankings as of 3/23/09

The number in parentheses is the player's current rating as a prospect. Their rank is based on this number and the number is based on their quality of play/athleticism/makeup throughout their minor league career. The letter grade is their ceiling in the Majors. Realize, that an A in the Majors and an A in the Minors are very different, and the Majors grade is always more telling/harder to achieve. Finally, the Major League player listed to the right of each prospect is their closest major league comparison, both in the field and at the plate. Obviously most of these players haven't reached their potential yet, so this is who they COULD be. Please remember that age doesn't play a significant role here. For instance, if I compare a late bloomer like Joe Nathan to Daniel Bard, I'm not implying that Bard will be a late bloomer like Nathan.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles (98)A+, Mike Piazza (Kurt Suzuki Defense)
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants (98)A, Randy Johnson
3. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves (97)A+, Kerry Wood
4. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, (94)A-, Cole Hamels
5. Jason Heyward, CF, Atlanta Braves, (93)A, Andruw Jones
6. Buster Posey, C, Baltimore Orioles, (93)A-, Joe Mauer
7. Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals (92)A-, Carlos Beltran
8. Cameron Maybin, CF, Florida Marlins (92)A-, Rocco Baldelli (2005)
9. Trevor Cahill, RHP , Oakland Athletics (92)A-, Brandon Webb
10. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers (92)A+, Pedro Martinez
11. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates (92)A-, Chipper Jones
12. Lars Anderson, 1B, Boston Red Sox (91)A-, Fred McGriff
13. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (90)A, Jimmy Rollins
14. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers (90)A-, Mark Texeira
15. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, St. Louis Cardinals (90)A-, Edgar Martinez
16. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (86)B/B+, Omar Vizquel
17. Derek Holland, LHP, Texas Rangers, (90)A, Josh Beckett
18. Aaron Hicks, CF/SP, Minnesota Twins, (90)A, Ken Griffey Jr.
19. Travis Snider, LF/1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays, (89)B+, Greg Luzinski
20. Gordon Beckham, SS/2B, Chicago White Sox, (89)B+, Stephen Drew
21. Michael Stanton, OF/1B, Florida Marlins, (87)B/B+, Jose Canseco
22. Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, (87)B+, Matt Garza
23. Greg Halman, OF, Seattle Mariners, (87)B+, Grady Sizemore
24. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals, (87)B+, Conner Jackson (some say Casey Kotchman)
25. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics, (87)B+, Andy Pettitte
26. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Chicago Cubs, (87)A-, Francisco Rodriguez
27. Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado Rockies, (87)B+, Devon White
28. Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers, (87)A-, Tim Hudson
29. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (87)A-, Kevin Millwood
30. Dellin Betances, RHP New York Yankees (87)A, Ervin Santana
31. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals (86)B+, Ryan Zimmerman
32. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees (86)A, Victor Martinez
33. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates, (83)B+/A-, Steve Finley
34. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins (86)B, Derek Lee
35. Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Washington Nationals, (86)B/B+, Bert Blyleven
36. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, (86)B/B+, Cole Hamels
37. Matt LaPorta, LF/1B/DH, Cleveland Indians, (86)B/B+, Adrian Gonzalez
38. Carlos Santana, C/3B, Cleveland Indians, (85)B+, Kurt Suzuki
39. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers, (85)B, Rafael Furcal
40. Michael Inoa, RHP, Oakland Athletics, (85)A-, Rich Harden (but much taller)
41. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, (85) A-, Anibal Sanchez
42. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays, (85) B/B+, Chris Ianetta
43. Reid Brignac, SS, Tampa Bay Rays, (84) B/B+, Troy Tulowitzki
44. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, (84) B/B+, Curt Schilling
45. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs, (84) B+, Scott Rolen
46. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds, (84)B+, Joey Votto
47. Brett Cecil, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (84)B+/A-, Kelvim Escobar
48. Mat Gamel, 3B/1B, Milwaukee Brewers, (84)B+, Wally Joyner
49. Ben Revere, CF, Minnesota Twins, (84)B+, Brett Butler
50. Angel Salome, C, Milwaukee Brewers, (83)A-, Paul Lo Duca
51. Jordan Schafer, CF, Atlanta Braves, (83)B/B+, Jim Edmonds
52. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros, (83) B/B+, Geovany Soto
53. Aaron Cunningham, RF, Oakland Athletics, (83)B/B+, Michael Cuddyer
54. Jacob McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, (83)A, Matt Cain
55. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies, (83)B+, Ubaldo Jiminez
56. Tim Alderson, RHP, San Francisco Giants, (83)B+, John Danks
57. Angel Villalona, 3B, San Francisco Giants, (83)B+, Jorge Cantu
58. Daniel Bard, CL, Boston Red Sox, (83)B+, Joe Nathan
59. Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets, (82)B+, Yunel Escobar
60. Todd Frazier, SS, Cincinnati Reds, (82)B+, Edgar Renteria
61. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets, (82)B+, Delmon Young
62. Andrew Lambo, OF/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, (82)B, Andre Ethier
63. Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Chicago White Sox, (82)B+, Orlando Hudson
64. Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas Rangers, (82)B+, Kenji Johjima
65. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, (82)A-, Troy Percival
66. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, (82)B+, Jered Weaver
67. Matt Dominguez, Florida Marlins, (82)B-/B, Josh Fields
68. Kellen Kulbacki, RF, San Diego Padres, (82)B, Jason Kubel
69. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins, (82)B, Jason Varitek
70. Brett Lawrie, C, Milwaukee Brewers (82)B, Jorge Posada
71. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Seattle Mariners, (82)A-, Chris R. Young
72. Kyle Skipworth, C, Florida Marlins (81)B+, Ryan Doumit
73. Austin Jackson, CF, New York Yankees (81)B, David DeJesus/Mark Kotsay
74. Chris Perez, CL, St. Louis Cardinals (81)B+, Jose Valverde
75. Bryan Anderson, C, St. Louis Cardinals (81)B, A.J. Pierzynski
76. Jose Ceda, CL, Florida Marlins (81)A-, Carlos Marmol
77. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (81)A-, Kelly Shoppach
78. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins, (80) B-, Ryan Garko
79. Chris Valaika, SS, Cincinnati Reds, (80) B, Mike Aviles
80. Carlos Triunfel, 3B, Seattle Mariners, (80) B, Julio Lugo
81. David Huff, LHP, Cleveland Indians, (80) B/B+, Cliff Lee
82. James McDonald, SU/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, (80) B-/B, Keith Foulke
83. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Raus, (80)B+, Matt Garza
84. Daniel Cortes, RHP, Kansas City Royals, (79)B, Zach Greinke
85. Scott Elbert, SU/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, (79)B, Jonathan Sanchez
86. Kyle Blanks, 1B, San Diego Padres, (79)B+, Prince Fielder
87. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Boston Red Sox, (79)A-, Scott Kazmir
88. Esmailyn Gonzalez, Washington Nationals, (79)A-, Cristian Guzman
89. Max Ramirez, C, Texas Rangers, (79)B+, A.J. Pierzynski
90. Michael Main, RHP, Texas Rangers, (79)A-, Josh Beckett
91. Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox, (79)B/B+, Michael Barrett
92. Adrian Cardenas, SS, Oakland Athletics, (79)B/B+, Orlando Cabrera
93. Will Inman, RHP, San Diego Padres (81)B, Edwin Jackson
94. Jose Tabata, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates, (79) B+, Milton Bradley
95. Chris (Vernon) Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics, (78) B+/A-, Paul Konerko
96. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals, (78) A-, Billy Wagner
97. Andrew Brackman, LHP, New York Yankees, (78)A-, C.C. Sabathia
98. Lou Marson, C, Philadelphia Phillies, (78) B-/B, Yadier Molina
99. Desmond Jennings, CF, Tampa Bay Rays, (78) B, Tori Hunter
100. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, (78) B+/A-, Mike MacDougal
101. Chuck Lofgren, LHP/MR, Cleveland Indians, (77) B+/A-, Matt Lindstrom
102. Josh Reddick, CF, Boston Red Sox, (77) B+, J.D. Drew
103. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox, (77)B-, Hideki Okajima (righty)
104. Tyson Ross, LHP, Oakland Athletics, (77) B/B+, Matt Cain
105. Casey Kelly, SS/SP, Boston Red Sox, (77) B+, Rafael Furcal
106. Adam Miller, RHP/Cl, Cleveland Indians, (77) B/B+, Matt Anderson
107. Chris Marrero, RF/1B, Washington Nationals, (76) B-/B, Russell Branyan
108. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Atlanta Braves, (76)B+, Carlos Gomez
119. Chris Nelson, SS/OF, Colorado Rockies, (76)B, Rich Aurilia
110. Mark Melancon, CL, New York Yankees, (79) B+, Bobby Jenks
111. Nick Weglarz, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians, (76)B, Mark Grace
112. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Minnesota Twins, (75)B-/B, Scott Baker
113. Josh Donaldson, C, Oakland Athletics, (75)B-/B, Mike Napoli
114. George Kottaras, C, Boston Red Sox, (74)B-, Greg Zaun
115. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves, (74)B/B+, Casey Kotchman
116. Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies, (74)B+, Jacque Jones
117. Nick Evans, 1B/LF, New York Mets, (74)B+, Hank Blalock
118. Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, (74)B, Jon Rauch
119. Aaron Poreda, LHP, Chicago White Sox, (74)B+, Scott Olsen
120. Tyler Colvin, OF, Chicago Cubs, (73)B, Mike Cameron
121. Ethan Martin, RHP/MR, Los Angeles Dodgers, (73)B+, Steve Karsay
122. Fautino De Los Santos, CL, Oakland Athletics, (73)B/B+, Francisco Cordero
123. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees, (73)B+, A.J. Pierzynski
124. Chris Carter, DH, Boston Red Sox, (73)B+, Edgar Martinez*
125. Nolan Reimold, OF, Baltimore Orioles, (72) C+/B-, Melvin Mora
126. Trevor Crowe, OF, Cleveland Indians, (72) B-, Coco Crisp
127. Jaime Garcia, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals, (72) B-, Glen Perkins
128. Henry Sosa, RHP, Oakland Athletics, (71) B, Ramon Ramirez
129. David Freese, 3B, Cincinnati Reds, (71) B, Joe Crede
130. Wes Hodges, 3B, Cleveland Indians, (71) B, Mike Lowell

Cash Crops Part I

#1 The Boston Red Sox

If you look at the most successful teams throughout history, their teams have been built on the young talent that they've harvested from their farm. You might argue that the Yankees are an exception to this rule, however, if you take a closer look to their history, they're not. Babe Ruth was never a baby Yankee, but Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Don Mattingly, Andy Pettitte, Whitey Ford and of course, Yogi Berra were at one point in their professional careers.

Recently, the Red Sox, The Athletics, The Devil Rays and the Marlins have all been powerhouses at some time in the last decade, and all of them created those teams with a powerhouse minor league system. Over the next month, I will be ranking an providing analysis for the best Farm-Constructed MLB teams throughout the last 20 years and providing analysis. Each team is ranked by my opinion on their player quality, prospect-to-All Star (or "good" player) frequency and the team's success using those players. The last factor that goes into my ranking is the percentage of the ratio of harvested prospects on their 25 man roster in comparison to the rest of their 25 man roster. That may sound confusing, especially with such an awkward sentence, and I'm not sure how to write it more clearly, but if the percentage is 40%, then 40% of their 25 active players have been prospects for that team at one time or another. This technique may not be as effective as the usual numbers technique that I use, but bear with me, remember that I always try to give you readers some decent stuff. The number in parenthesis is the ration of former prospects now starting for the MLB team to 25 (25 man roster). The number of championships in the last decade is also listed and is next to the percentage.

1. The Boston Red Sox, (%52), 2 WS -

Looking back on the days before Theo Epstein, for a Red Sox fan, is like thinking about the Universe before the Big Bang. Epstein took an annually mediocre team and turned it into one that's won two World Series in four years. The Red Sox aren't the Devil Rays however--their team always has a veteran presence. Sometimes these veterans are rent-a-players like Jon Smoltz or Orlando Cabrera, while others bleed--well--red...Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett are two great examples. The point is, Theo is adept at finding a happy medium in constructing his roster. He mixes his powerful young-guns, his old-n'-steadies, and his high-priced free agents better than any other GM in baseball. Billy Bean got the book, Moneyball by Michael Lewis, but Epstein should get a medal. Below are some of the recent, top, young players that the Sox have raised through their farm system, from Greenville, to Pawtucket and then too the big club.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, CL-When Rivera's arm finally falls off, Papelbon will take the AL Closer's Crown off of the old man's head and step in as the most dominating closer in the AL--maybe in the MLB. Even as a Yankees/Nats fan, I love Papelbon. Papelbon's repertoire: a 95 mph 4 seamer, a mid-eighties slider, a diving splitter and an occasional change. Yes it's sexy. He's a reliever that has the stuff to be a frontline starter. His stuff is unmatchable, and he has been the biggest part of the Red Sox recent playoff run.

2. Kevin Youkilis, CI- Youkilis was drafted by the Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 MLB draft and drew Billy Beane's eye immediately. Yook is a perfect ballplayer in my opinion. The guy is %100 skill--not all muscle and 'roids. He understands the game, and most importantly, he understands that in most situations a walk is as valuable as a single. He gets on base at an impressive rate, fields the corners extremely well and is the true MVP of the Red Sox. Francona, one of the best managers of my generation, taught Youkilis to take a more liberal approach at the plate in Spring 2008. That new approach resulted in 29 homers, 115 ribbies and a .312 batting average. He is also a great role model (outside of the gut) for young baseball fans/players. No 'roids, no problem.

3. Clay Buchholz, SP- I didn't place Buchholz third because of what he is--I placed him here because he WILL be one of the best young pitchers in the AL in the next few years. Hugh's got the hype. A "ninety five MPH fastball" the Yankee fans said...Not so. His fastball is 90-92 and he's a placement pitcher. True, Hughes looks like he'll be a good player, but he's not Buchholz. Not nearly. Buchholz has a 95 mph rising four-seamer, a developing two-seamer, and a 12-6 curve that could potentially beat out Kazmir's slider for the best pitch in the AL East (outside of Rivera's cutter). Oh, and his change is pretty nasty too. He hasn't been slotted in to the rotation just yet, but if Theo knows what he is doing--and he does--he'll have him in there by mid-season. He reminds me of a young Roy Halladay.

4. Jon Lester, LHSP- Lester, drafted in the second round of the 2002 amatuer draft by the Red Sox, was one of the greatest "comeback stories" in the history of the game. Hotchkins disease kept him from the sport for a couple of seasons, but when he returned he returned with fire in his eye. With the big club, the kid threw a no-hitter in the Spring of '08. Schilling is about to ride off into the sunset, and Beckett/Daisuke can't carry all alone. Lester is the new leader of this staff, as long as the Alpha Male, Beckett, recognizes Lester's ability. In his first full season Lester went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152 k's in 210 ip. His numbers were sexy last year, and although some say he'll regress slightly in 2008 to James Shields numbers, I disagree. His curveball and his placement make me think he's closer to Cole Hamels than to Shields.

5. Dustin Pedroia, 2B- Nobody expected Pedroia to be what he's become except for me of course. Not to gloat, but I saw this coming...Pedroia has always been a gamer. Pedroia pushes his 5'9" (really 5'6") stature well beyond the limit. He swings like he's aiming for the Citgo Sign--quite a few blocks from Fenway-- and he fields like he has a thing for brown face paint. He makes some of the best contact in the game, striking out a ridiculously low 52 times in 653 at bats in 2008 while hitting .326. In his short career, the energizer Bunny has walked more times than he has struck out--a feat that almost no batter today could dream of. Although his minor league OPS was .845, Pedroia was never viewed as anything more than a stopgap to Hanley Ramirez, and then when Hanley was traded, he was thought to be only a decent option to hold second base down for a couple of years until a big free agent name appeared on the market. Then, in spring training '07, the little fireball started heating up. His career stats through 1262 at bats include a .313 batting average, 140 rbis, 104 BB's 101 K's, 140 rbis, 209 runs and 320 hits. His base running ability is also one of the best in the AL, slyly stealing 27 bases in his career, vs. only 3 gun-downs. If he was a Yankee, he'd already be a "lock for the Hall of Fame" like Jeter was deemed at age 26...

6. Nomar Garciaparra, SS- Before Papi, D-Ped, Schilling, Papelbon and Youkilis were beloved, there was Nomar. Jeter's smile always got the press, but Nomar was the better hitter AND fielder in his heyday. In 3,968 at bats with the Red Sox Nomar, brother of the less famous Ramon, had 1282 hits and batted .323 with 178 bombs. His arm was stronger than Jeter's, and at times, his Range Factor was nearly a point higher--even with similar pitching. Tearing apart his wrist has cost him his chance at winning a World Series as a starter, but he will be in the Hall in a few years, so don't feel too bad for him.

7. Jason Varitek, C- After being drafted in the first round of the 1993 draft by the Twins, Varitek was traded to the Mariners and then with Derek Lowe to the Sox in July, 1997. Papelbon is the pitching staff's leader, but Varitek was the one-field General for the last decade. At the plate Varitek has always been solid, extremely close in yearly statistics to Mike Lieberthal. Although Posada has the better bat, Varitek had the better glove and the bigger balls. Not only did he slap A-Rod around in 2005, but he's won a few games off of Rivera. Through about 9 seasons worth of at bats (about 450 a season is a full season for a catcher) he had 654 ribbies and 161 homers. I never really bought the "you need a catcher that can call a good game" thing, because, in the end, the pitcher decides what he pitches. If a catcher can't hit or field like Wil Nieves, I don't think he has any place in the MLB--even with a nice rapport with his pitchers. I didn't believe it until Ausmus and Varitek, and what makes Varitek an All Star is the fact that he can call a great game and hit as well. Anyway, the point is both of their staff's love them, and both of these guys are gamers. A true leader, Varitek deserves his spot in the heart of ever Red Sox fan.

8. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF- In a few years Ellsbury will be near the top of this list. The kid is Reyes-fast, and stole 50 bases in '08--amazing considering his .336 OBP. He doesn't strike out too often, and he can take a walk well enough to slot in as a leadoff man for a long time. Even though his '08 numbers weren't as earth-shattering as those he put up in 2007, his minor league numbers suggest that he'll be an annual All-Star with more experience. In barely 1000 at bats in the minors Ellsbury hit .314 with 164 runs, a .390 OBP and 105 stolen bases. That averages out to about 90 runs and 60 stolen bases a season. His power has developed at an impressive pace since his call-up, and someday he will hit 15 homers to go along with his stellar peripherals.

9. Trot Nixon, RF- Nixon had a relatively short career due to injury. Still, he was an immense talent in the early days of his career and Nix managed to help the Sox to a World Series before he left Boston. In 3,285 at bats with the Red Sox, Nixon collected 912 hits and crushed 106 bombs while posting an OPS+ of about 120. After he left the Sox his career fell apart, but while he was with them he helped them win the World Series, and helped win them more than one playoff game as well.

10. Jed Lowrie, MI- Lowrie is a very good player, but no future MVP. Still, he can hit for a high average and field most of the positions on the diamond. His lousy range should tell you that third base-- or possibly second base-- is in his future. Wherever he plays he'll be solid. He had a .381 OBP in the minors and an .827 OPS. At some point Lowrie will hit about .300, post an OBP of about .370-.390 and slug about .450. He has a nice line drive swing, and could be a number 2 hitter if Pedroia gets injured, but more than likely he'll be towards the back of the lineup. Either way, Lowrie is a guy that every team wants. And, you never know, he could turn into Mike Aviles one day.

Cheap Fantasy Pickups for Deep Leagues

1. Josh Bard, C, Boston Red Sox- Bard was a late bloomer and didn't secure a starting job until he was 28, but once he did, he batted .305, with 14 homers, 44 doubles, 91 rbi and 189 hits in 620 at bats over his first two seasons starting for the Padres. If those 620 at bats were in a season instead of stretched over two (to keep him fresh and allow Barrett to play) then Bard would've been an All Star and regarded as one of the top 10 hitting catchers in the MLB. He's in Boston now, and playing his home games at Fenway--a tiny park, especially in comparison to the impossible-to-hit-in-Petco-Park. He's pretty good at squaring up on off speed pitches and mediocre fastballs, so the AL East may not be the greatest place for him to play, but as a line-drive hitter the Green Monster and that weird center field will allow him to slug close to .450 and put up some nice doubles numbers. His line will looks something like this 300 abs, .280-.295 ba, .350-.360 OBP, 6-8 homers, 15-25 doubles and a .430-.450 slugging percentage.

2.Russell Branyan, 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners- Branyan qualifies at both corner infield positions in most fantasy leagues and because of that he's way more valuable than he's been given credit for over his career. By debuting before Money Ball was released, Branyan was never able to catch on. Simply put, before Adam Dunns, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard, and Michael Stanton there was Russ Branyan-- a guy that could bat .250 but wallop 40 homers and walk 80 times. Not giving him a starting job was a crime and his career and ability was wasted. Striking out 200 times when you slug over .500 and get on base %35 of the time isn't a problem at all. He's no number two hitter, but sticking him between fifth and seventh in the order is pretty nice. In 766 games, about 4.7 full seasons, he has a .485 slugging percentage, hit 133 home runs, has 320 rbis and has walked 281 times. His season averages are 28 homers, 59 walks and 68 rbis, and if it wasn't for a bad 1999, 2003 and 2007, Branyan would average about 35 homers, 80 rbi and 65 walks.

3. Wilson Betemit, 1B/3B, Chicago White Sox- In Atlanta in 2005 Betemit hit .305 over a half season, and in 2006 he slugged .497 in the ATL over a third of a season. Off of the bench Betemit has slugged an impressive .438 over his career. Pinch hitting and coming off the bench cold make it hard to hit homers and raise your average but he's still manage to put up good numbers. Now that he's playing in US Cellular and may have a starting gig, he could hit 20-25 homers and drive in 60-80 runs. Think of a Ty Wigginton 2.

4. Franklin Gutierrez, CF, Seattle Mariners- Gutierrez has generally been viewed as a dissapointment thus far into his major league career. Once a sex-machine-prospect, Guttierez hasn't put up super numbers yet--but they haven't been all that bad either. Don't forget he's only 26 and he may very well break out with his starting job in Seattle this year. His career minor league stats are pretty nice. Through 2080 at bats--equating about 3.5 600 at bat seasons--he has a career .809 OPS, 66 homers and 75 stolen bases. In a 600 at bat season he's average 19 homers, 22 stolen bases and has a career .282 batting average. If he can do that in the minors then he's a damn good steal.

5. Dana Eveland, LHP, Oakland Athletics- Eveland put up very solid numbers in 2008--his first full season in the majors. Through 168 innings he struck out 118 and gave up only 10 home runs while he posted a 4.34 ERA. To me he looks a lot like the new Andy Pettitte. He isn't as big as Pettitte, but he's well built, and if he learns to get his breaking stuff over a little bit better he could easily put up Pettitte numbers year in and year out. His minors numbers suggest that this projection is very reasonable. In his MiLB career, Eveland had a sparkling 2.61 ERA and 427 strikeouts in 434 innings pitched. He's a steal.

6. Joe Mather, 3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals- Mather was a low level prospect before his complete turnaround in 2007. He went from a future fourth or fifth outfielder like Bryan Anderson to freak'n Colby Rasmus-- belting 31 homers in 487 at bats in AA/AAA in 2007 and another 18 homers in 211 at bats in AAA in 2008. Now that Freese has been sent back to the MiLB camp and Glaus is a Mess, the Cardinals have handed the job to Mr. Mather. He may never be a star, but he could hit 20 homers and bat .250-.280. If he really catches on then he may be able to even hit 30 some day, but don't expect miracles from the former MiLB-filler.

7. Skip Schumaker, CF/2B, St. Louis Cardinals- Schumaker may not have a starting job in the OF anymore, but the Cardinals were so happy with his bat that they've insisted on converting him to a second basemen. So far the experiment has failed miserably, but if Schumaker stays dedicated to converting in spring training then he may very well be playing some second this spring. If he does, then his .300 batting average and 8-10 homers and 80 runs are looking pretty darn nice.

8. Nick Hundley, C, San Diego Padres- Hundley doesn't make great contact but he plays solid defense and hits for power.In 597 at bats in AA and AAA over the past two years Hundley has hit 32 homers, driven in 111 and walked 59 times. He'll never be a top hitting catcher but a baby Mike Napoli is never something to scoff at as a second catcher or even a starter when you're in a pinch. A .230-.260 batting average and 20 home runs is very possible over a full season for Hundley. He'll get a lot of at bats in San Diego as they simply don't have another option besides the old and lousy-hitting Brad Ausmus.

9. Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado Rockies- It seems that the fantasy world has forgotten about Stewart and Baker almost completely. Finally in 2008 the Rox made room on the roster for the power-hitting prospect and he didn't dissapoint, hitting 10 homers and driving in 41 in 266 at bats. He has an insane .897 career OPS in the Minors, and clearly, just judging by that almost silly number, Ian Stewart has loads of potential. In a full season at third, Stewart could hit 25-30 homers, walk 60 times and bat between .260 and .280. Move over Bitch (Garrett Atkins).

10. Sean Rodriguez, 2B/SS, Anaheim Angels- Rodriguez has a shitty year in the majors last year, just barely hitting over .200. In 2007 and 2008 Rodriguez put up a .944 OPS and a 1.043 OPS in AA and AAA. He can also steal bases--stealing 95 in about 3.8 seasons. He has AROD power except he's Sea-Rod. If he can get a beat on those major league curveballs then you have a middle infielder that can hit 30 homers (maybe even 40), get on base 38% of the time and steal 30 bases yearly. Sounds good right? You fucking better believe it does Sally.

RHP Collin Balester, C JR Towles, CF Brett Gardner, DH/CI Jeff Larish, 1B Gaby Sanchez, 3B/2B Martin Prado, MI Brent Lillibridge, OF Brandon Moss, 2B Chris Getz,C Ivan Rodriguez,C Ryan Hanigan,C Dusty Ryan, 1B Travis Ishikawa, OF/CI/2B Mark Teahen.

Underrated Minors- SP Dellin Betances, OF Kellen Kulbacki, C Austin Romine, C Wilson Ramos, 1B Sean Doolittle, LHP Nick Hagadone, OF Josh Reddick, RP Humberto Sanchez, RP Brad Holt, RP Ethan Martin, MI Joaquin Arias, RHP Daniel Cortes, LHP Tyson Ross, SS Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS Chris Nelson, SS Hector Gomez, SS Reese Havens,LHP Sean O'Sullivan, LHP Jacob McGee, RHP Mitch Talbot.

Body of a God

There are 6 types of bodies among infield and outfield prospects and baseball players according to the "old scouts"--a name coined by Billy Bean. The perfect body is something of an art;It exemplifies youth. A frame that hasn't been filled out yet, a youthful face and tools that are just screaming to be developed. The swollen body is the opposite. The body is overcrowded with muscle and their game is strength and power hitting. Their potential has been reached and they're prone to injury. The athlete. A thin muscular specimen, with developed legs, plus speed and developing hitting ability. The soft guy is a player that is a little but overweight, and has some power but generally lives on his knowledge of the game and discipline. A speedster is the cornerback of baseball--pure speed. They're highly coordinated, and can make contact but won't develop much power, and adding muscle to their frame won't increase their potential it will simply make them slower. Finally, the energizer bunny is small, energetic and does all of the little things right. Their athletic ability lacks, as does their size, but their dedication, fundamentals and a little bid of speed help them out.

1. Soft Body
MLB: Kevin Youkilis, Billy Butler, Juan Uribe, Austin Kearns, Jason Kubel
Prospect: Kyle Blanks, Jesus Montero, Leonard Davis, Chris Shelton, Michael wilson

According to Beane, Youkilis has the body of a Greek God. He walks and lives off of his brain and discipline. He has some power, and makes decent contact and even has some good forearm and back strength, but he's not an athlete--simply a good baseball player. Butler hasn't reached his potential yet, and it is high for a soft-bodied player. He is incredibly adept and making contact, and his batting fundamentals and swing are near perfect. His defense blows like "Deep Throat" and he's been converted to DH.

Kyle Blanks is a beast at 6'6" 270 (more like 300). He hits for a lot of power and good patience and batting fundamentals. Of course, a guy his size can't play defense and he's absolutely not nimble. Leonard Davis a chunky National's prospect and their Minor League Player of the Year for 2009. Montero does have power and a lot of it. He's overweight, and he has an 80 for power. Montero's true skill comes from his batting smarts however; He knows how to make square contact like Butler, and that's what makes him so special.

2. Swollen Body
MLB: Jason Giambi, Yunel Escobar, Wily Mo Pena, Travis Hafner, Brad Eldred
Prospect: Travis Snider, Colby Rasmus, Matt LaPorta, Joe Koshansky, Ian Gac


Giambi is the classic example of a swollen MLB player. He's a former steroid user, and this is what they often are. He has a lot of power and good fundamentals but he's both prone to injury and poor at making contact. He's slow and doesn't play good defense either. Pena and Hafner have both fallen victim to injury due to their overly muscular bodies. Both were clearly on steroids and neither will probably ever be good players again. Pena is a disappointment already.

Although Snider has some MLB at bats and plans to be in the MLB in 2009, he's been listed as a top 10 prospect the last two years and won't been considered a major leaguer until 2009. Snider is similar to Giambi in that he strikes out, doesn't make very good contact, but has a lot of power and can get on base. He too is a bad outfielder and defender. Colby Rasmus is evidently prone to injury as well--already struggling with knee injuries in 2008. He has a lot of strength and even some speed, but his body-size-potential is already reached and he'll probably have leg trouble in the bigs--maybe even shoulder trouble. LaPorta is the more athletic type of swollen and can even add a little bit more of bulk. But like Snider he's all power and (more) patience, but his defense and speed is awful. Wily Mo Pena is so 'roided out that he looks inhuman. Yunel Escobar's neck/chin suggests HGH.

3. Perfect/Youthful Body
MLB: Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Lastings Milledge, Cameron Maybin, Joe Mauer
Prospect: Dexter Fowler, Cameron Maybin, Matt Wieters, Austin Romine, Alcides Escobar


Bruce has the exact body. He looks a little bit soft, but his rosie cheeks and youthful face suggest its just baby fat. The point is that Bruce already posseses homerun power and good defense without reaching his bodyt potential. A few pounds of muscle and *poof* you'll have 40 homeruns. Lastings Milledge is another example of this. Another young guy with a double chin. Milledge already has speed and the ability to go 20-20 and hit .300, but when he gets in better shape (2009?) he could even go 25-30 and hit .310-.320. Joe Mauer is the best example I have at catcher. He's already won two batting titles, but still has room to bulk up his frame and improve his power. He also plays fantastic defense. If he hits the weights he could hit 15-20 home runs and steal about 15 bases as well. Finally, obviously for Longoria, the sky is the limit.

Fowler, Maybin and Alcides and Matt Wieters have the exact body that I am talking about. All of them have nice frames, all of them are good athletes and all of them can add some muscle and bulk. All of them will be stars, and yes, all of them still have baby-faces. Batting titles, All Star Games, MVP and the Hall of Fame is common among this type of player. If you're wondering how to spot them, consider this example--Romine and Jackson are the Yankees' best examples of this type of player. Brett Wallace was once on this list because of his ability to mauever his large body, hit the ball square and he possesses a frame that could be highly mesomorphic some day with some work. I took him down, because 1. I received an astute comment from a reader, and 2. as is, he's a little bit too fat. He's a cross between soft/youthful.

4. Pure Athlete
MLB: Elijah Dukes, Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore
Prospect: Greg Halman, Aaron Hicks, Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings, Tyler Colvin

Dukes, Sizemore and Rollins are perfect examples of a pure athlete; Crawford and was a better example when he was younger but still qualifies. All of these guys can hit, field their position, have speed and range and are leapers. They could play in the NFL if they wanted too and many of them played football in college. 30-30, 30-40, MVP--these are common terms among these guys. They're prone to injury for their style of play (Ken Griffey Junior). These players make the bulk of the All Star teams. Reyes, Kinsler and Russ Martin could also make this list, but Granderson's 20-20-20 season was darn impressive.


Halman and Hicks are also the best examples of their body type among the body type-prospect examples on this list. Hicks throws a 95 mph fastball, hits a ton and has outstanding speed. He's the quintessential a 5 tool player. Halman could easily go 20-20 in the majors, especially if he improves his contact rate. Heyward is an incredible athlete, everyone knows that. Colvin doesn't have enough patience, yet, to be a major leaguer but he too is a 5 tool guy. He could go 20-20 in the MLB one day.


5. Pure Speedster
MLB Ex: Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chone Figgins, Joey Gathright
Prospect Ex: Ben Revere, Ryan Kalish, Elvis Andrus, Everth Cabrera, Eric Young Jr.

Pierre and Gardner exemplify speedsters. Neither have any power to speak of, but both have good plate discipline and both can hit .300 (Pierre doesn't strike out at all either). They make their money on the bases and all of them could steal 50 sans Gathright (due to playing time). Gathright was a better base stealer in the minors but he could still steal 30 in the majors, or even 50 with a full time job (unlikely). He doesn't have much power but makes good contact and plays good defense. A lot of guys that fit this body type are pinch runners. Ellsbury is the example of how a speedster can become an All Star

Ben Revere is a great example among prospects. He makes loads of contact and has plus-plus speed. In the majors he could very well develop into Carl Crawford, but more likely Juan Pierre with an even better bat. 50 steals, a .310 batting average and great range in the outfield is Ben Revere. Kalish and Andrus both could steal 30-40 in the majors, but moth need bat development. Andrus could be very good, but he needs to add some steady hands to his range at shortstop. Eric Young was moved to the outfield because of his horrendous fielding percentage at second base. He has a lot of speed but will likely be a 4th outfielder/pinch runner in the MLB. He strikes out too much to start.

6. Energizer Bunny (Kiss-Ass),
MLB Ex: David Eckstein, Dustin Pedroia, Joe Inglett, Ryan Theriot
Prospect Ex: Ivan DeJesus, Jemile Weeks, Angel Salome, Brent Lillibridge, Ivan Ochoa

Eckstein is pretty much where the name came from. The guy is a serious suck up, but he plays hard, never strikes out and is a role model for all of the vertically-challenged, pesky players out there. Theriot is good at playing beyond his potential. Like Eckstein or Phil Rizzuto, he doesn't have a good arm but he throws the ball with all of his might and some accuracy. Neither of them are top-of-the-league base-stealers but they do enough to maket them a threat on the base paths. Inglett was little AAA journeyman before 2008, and then he had a solid year replacing Aaron Hill. Pedroia is the proof that these guys can make the All Star team and put up some serious numbers. The absolute idol of all of the tiny second basemen out there, Pedroia has a hell of a career ahead of him, even if he is playing/swinging way off his potential/out of his shoes. Most hit between 1-10 home runs, hit between .280-.300, play their hearts out on defense, steal 10-20 bases, bunt with the best of 'em and hit in the clutch.


Brent Lillibridge, Ivan Ochoa and Angel Salome are the best minor league examples. Both Salome and Lillibridge have a tiny bit of experience in the MLB, but both are considered a top-prospect and not yet MLB players (until 2009). Lilly can hit about 2.70-.290, steal 20-30 bases and play some solid defense. He's thin and wiry like Theriot or Eckstein and that's who he'll play like. Salome is a short and squat catcher for the Brewers. He wasn't gifted with height, speed or athleticism, and his defense shows it, but he makes contact at a fantastic rate--hitting .360 in AA in 2008. All of these guys need to play beyond their athletic potential to stay in the majors, and those that do--most likely Salome--will stay in the majors.

The Road to Recovery

Various injuries destroy the careers of young players every year. Some of the injuries, although fairly severe, are still treatable however and many of the players afflicted by them are able to "bounce back" and make a full recovery in a reasonable amount of time. Below is a list of the players that will likely "bounce back" from their injury-plagued 2008 season. The second segment is a list of players that will be less likely to make a full recovery--and many of their careers may very well be over.

Call it a Comeback

1. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland (B)- Buck was marred by post concussion syndrome in 2008, as well as various bumps and bruises. However, it doesn't look like he'll pull the "Ryan Church" and really drop off due to his head injuries. It took him the summer to recover, but he showed those skeptical of his future that he was A-O-K with a .367 batting average in September. Many scouts claim that Buck doesn't have a high ceiling--I disagree. At four different stops between A and AA ball, Buck hit .342, .361, .302 and .349. He's never really looked overmatched when healthy, and seems like a guy that could hit .300 and belt 20 homers--like a Nick Markakis--if all goes well.

2. Jake McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (B)- McGee was quite possibly Tampa's best pitching prospect before his season-ending Tommy John surgery last July. He led A-ball in strikeouts in 2006 with 171. In 2008 McGee was ranked the #15 prospect in the minors by Baseball America, and his career numbers justify this ranking. In 485 career innings he's struck out 553 batters and posted a 3.41 ERA. He has an electric curve and a very nice running fastball that tops out in the mid-nineties. He won't be ready until 2010, but believe me, when he is ready he'll be nasty.

3. Daniel Bard, CL, Boston Red Sox (A-)- The Sox are still considering using Bard as a starting pitcher since their bullpen is already crowded with talent. After his brief and rocky stint as a starter in A-ball, Bard put up incredible numbers as a reliever before and after his elbow surgery. In the Sally League in 2008, Bard had a 0.64 ERA and struck out 43 batters in 28 innings. After being promoted to AA, he proved that he can dominate even in a hitter's league, boasting a 1.99 ERA in 49 innings and posting 64 strikeouts. He has a 94-99 mph (able to hit 100) fastball, a low 90's sinking 2-seamer, a high 80's cutter, a low/mid-eighties slider and a 78-82mph circle change. All of his pitches are average or plus--the best being his slider, 2-seamer and four-seamer. Although his four-seamer is straight, he can place it well. His sinking 2-seamer is effective against lefties, and his slider dominates righties. He is just plain sick-nasty.

4. Josh Johnson, LHP, Florida Marlins (B+)- Johnson was another player that had to thank God that Tommy John had blown out his arm and forced his surgeon to invent Tommy John Elbow surgery. Johnson's arm was torn up in 2007 and the prognosis wasn't looking too good when he came back to pitch with the Marlins late in the offseason. He missed the beginning of 2008, but when he finally returned he was as good as ever. In 87 innings pitched, Johnson posted a 3.61 ERA and struck out 77 batters. He looked good, and will be a big part of the Marlins rotation in 2009. He's still only 25, so his youth and his size suggest that he'll put his arm problems behind him quickly.

5. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP, New York Yankees (B+)- Wang tore his planter fascia running the bases in an interleague game in the summer of 2008. The injury was devastating to the Yankees--they had lost their ace, and as a result, they missed out on the playoffs. Wang will be back for the start of 2009, and luckily he's a sinker- baller, so his foot work/leg-drive isn't as important to him as it is to a power pitcher like Roger Clemens. His arm is as healthy as ever, and this injury looked like as much of a fluke as any injury I've seen. He'll be good for 17 wins and 220 innings pitched in 2009 if everything goes as planned.

6. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (A-)- Gallardo was a victim of a freak accident like Wang. He tore apart his knee attempting to avoid a collision at first base on May 2, 2008. Gallardo is superb, and he's still only 23. He is being treated gingerly by Milwaukee's management, and won't be rushed into a heavy load until summer. In 396 innings in the minors, Gallardo struck out 457 batters and posted a
2.59 ERA. His major league numbers have been nearly as dominant--posting a 3.35 ERA in 134 innings pitched.

7. Josh Bard, C, Boston Red Sox, (B-)- After a horrendous and injury-filled 2008, it's easy to forget about how good of a contact hitter Bard actually is. In 620 at bats--a full season--between 2006 and 2007, Bard collected 189 hits, 14 homeruns, 46 doubles, 77 walks and 91 RBIs. Better yet, he batted .305. Those are damn good numbers for a catcher. Once again, Theo is a genius and he got the guy for nothing. Varitek should be a backup and a role player now that he's lost his touch, while Bard should take over and allow Kottaras to get a look here and there. ..290, 7 homers, 24 doubles and 40 rbi is probably what Bard will put up in a half season with the Sox.

8. Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays (B)- Before losing 2008 to post concussion syndrome, Hill had proven that he was a legit baller in 2007. In '07 he had a 792 OPS, hit .291 and belted 17 homers, 47 doubles and 78 rbi's-- all with good defense. For a second basemen, that is a sexy bat. Hill will be ready for 2008 and will take his job back from Joe Inglett. He has the potential to hit 20 homeruns, but he'll probably be a .285-15 homers-45 doubles-with-good-defense type guy.

9. Chris Duncan, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (B+)- Duncan has some serious power, and before 2008 he had also shown some serious potential. In '06 and '07 Duncan had a .952 and an .834 OPS. He was somewhat inconsistent in the minors, finishing with a ..417 slugging percentage in his career, but with his 6'5" frame, all it took was a few more years under his belt to show that he could easily hit 30 homers in a full season. In 2009 look for him to touch 30 homers with a batting average around .275-- '09's version of Carlos Quentin.

10. Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees (B/B+)- Hughes has the potential to be an A- pitcher but his glass body has shortened both of his major league stints into too small of a sample to really tell what he can be. He cracked a rib in 2008 and lost most of the season because of it. Although his ERA was above 6.00 in April, his performance in September and the Arizona Fall League has shown some serious promise. In 310 innings pitched in the minors, Hughes has a sparkling 2.35 ERA and 348 strikeoiuts. His 76-78 MPH knuckle-curve is near unhittable when he places it well. He also wields a plus 2 seam fastball that sits between 87-90 mph, and a plus 4-seamer that tops out at 93 and very occasionally 94 mph--usually sitting in the 90-92 mph range. He also features a cutter/slider, a nice changeup and is working on a splitter. Either way, if the kid can stay healthy he can be an ace.

Don't Call it a Comeback

1. Dontrelle Willis, LHP, Detroit Tigers (F)- Willis fell apart after leaving the pitcher friendly domain of the Marlins. His control and his body were very shaky in 2008 losing significant time to knee and forearm injuries among others. His 35 walks in 24 innings and his 9.38 ERA suggest that he is already done, even before his 27th birthday. He was also hittable in the minors, posting more hits than innings pitched in both of his stops between A+ and AAA. He's still young, but I've seen this type of play before, and unless the Tigers are hiding a serious injury, Willis will have to pull a Rick Ankiel to remain in professoinal baseball. Actually, he could very well convert to a hitter, as he does bat decently well...Anyway, the kid is a mess.

2. Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (C-)- It's hard for me to give McGowan such a downer of a projection, but the kid is in trouble. He pitched 111 innings in 2008 before falling victim to the worst possible problem for a young pitcher--a shoudler injury. His labrum was fraying and tearing, and his shoulder was simply too weak to pitch. He is supposedly going to skip labrum surgery, and concentrate on his other shoulder injury, which is even worse news. Trying to pitch for the Jays by mid-Spring is a horrid mistake for McGowan, but he seems determined to make that mistake. Even if he puts up decent numbers for a little bit, his career has been extremely shortened. Sad, but true.

3. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers (D)- Originally Hurley was a C+/B- pitcher with decent potential but with a torn rotator cuff, frayed labrum and hamstring problems his career looks to be lost. Those three injuries combined have made Hurley all but doomed to the Independent League, or atleast a career in the minors. The kid's career is over before it ever truely started--that's the sad truth.

4. Billy Wagner, CL, New York Mets (D+)- Wagner's career is all but over. Wagner will be 38 in July, and pitchers that old don't recover well from elbow surgery. He could come back and be a decent reliever, simply because he's a lefty with some good stuff that will still be decent after the surgery, but his career as a closer is over. He's had a nice career, saving 385 games. He may not hang it up right away, but know this, his days as a top tier reliever are over.

5. Pedro Martinez, RHP, New York Mets (C-)- Pedro Martinez is the best pitcher ever in my opinion. His 2000 season is simply the best pitching season ever--especially becayse he led the AL in ERA (1.74) by about 1.5 runs. The labrum injuries and an all-around tired arm are finally catching up with Pedro after four years of denial by the Red Sox and Mets. Once a fireballer with a Joba Chamberlian Slider and the best circle change in the game, Pedro has been reduced to a corner-nibbler, pitching 84-87 mph fastballs, a still-solid change and a flat slider. His 5.61 ERA in 2008 was nearly twice his career ERA (2.91) and it pretty much gurantees that Pedro won't ever return to a good pitcher--much-less a dominant one. At 37 years old, he might be able to get through 100 innings with the Mets, like David Cone did back in the day, simply out of respect--but after that they'll beg him to retire.

6. Mark Kotsay, OF/1B, Boston Red Sox (D+/C-)- Kotsay looks just about done, and with Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson, the Red Sox won't really care. The back surgery he had in 2007 kept him healthy for much of the 2008 season, but it sapped his barely average power enough to have him finish with only 6 homeruns in 2/3 of a season. His back is bad enough that it has turned him from a plus-fielder to an average one, and his days in center are definitely over. As a first basement he played well in the playoffs for the Sox, but since he'll be losing more power and more of his bat with these latest back problems, its unlikely that he'll be useful there. Looks like Kotsay is finally ABSOLUTELY useless after being semi-useless for the past few seasons.

7. Freddy Garcia, RHP, Chicago White Sox (C)- Garcia's arm and shoulder problems have kept him pretty much out of baseball for the past two seasons. Although his strikeout numbers are looking good once again, striking out 12 in 15 innings pitched in 2008, and striking out 50 in 64 innings pitched in '07, Garcia's career is just about done. The White Sox may get a solid year out of Garcia, where he'll pitch about 4.50 ERA ball, but after that, his shoulder will make him ineffective.

8. Jeff Francis, LHP, Colorado Rockies (C-)- Francis was once a B+ pitcher posting nice numbers for a pitcher starting half of his games in Coors Field. Shoulder surgery is historically devastating for a pitcher's career, and the shoulder inflammation Francis experienced last year was bad enough to make surgery look like a blessing. His 4-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 2008 were due to his wrecked shoulder, and although he wanted to pitch through it, the pain got bad enough that he simply couldn't. He'll begin rehabbing immediately, but the Rockies haven't given a time table for his return--if he ever does. His stuff was never electric to being with, so if his curve starts to flatten or his fastball loses its movement he'll be in big trouble--especially in Coors.

9. Ryan Church, RF, New York Mets (B-)- Church will improve in 2009, but his brains were seriously scrambled in 2008 and his performance showed it. His post concussion syndrome was far too sever for Minaya to rush him back like he did. Prior to his second concussion, Church had been putting up All Star numbers, slugging over .500 and hitting above .300. Upon his return however, he slumped badly enough to bring his batting average to .276, his slugging to .439 and his OPS + to a barely-average 102. His arm is still very good, and you could do worse in the corners of your outfield, but Church's All Star potential left with those lost brain cells.

10. Joe Crede, 3B, Minnesoda Twins (B-)- I like Crede--always have. He's slugged 30 home runs in 2006 and then another 22 in 2007. He's never been an OBP guys, with a career .257 batting average and a .306 OBP, but before his back injury his cheap power was valuable to the ChiSox. Now that his back is hurting him, his only asset is in serious jeopardy. Back injuries kill power, and without power, Crede is a below average player. The Twins usually make good moves and signings and have put together a nice team going in to 2009 but they should've stuck with Brendan Harris at 3rd.

Friendly Competition

Below are the most important and fiercest competitions in Spring Training. The Yankees, Mariners and both of the Sox are all unsettled.

1. SS, Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie, Boston Red Sox (B-/B-)- Lugo and Lowrie are the same players but have very different styles of play. Lugo steals and Lowrie hits for average. Lowrie is the better fielder, and he makes nice contact but Lugo still has the pontential to steal 30 bases. Lugo's sub-.240 batting average when he was healthy for the Sox may relegate him to the bench. Projected Winner- Lugo

2. CF, Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner, New York Yankees (B-/B-)- Gardner and Cabrera would do best in a platoon role where Gardner can hit righties and Cabrera can hit lefties. Gardner hit well below the mendoza line against lefties, and Carbrera still has the makings of a decent contact hitter when healthy. Gardner will win the job out of spring training because of his 80 on the scouting scale speed, his ability to walk and his current .378 batting average through March ninth. Projected Winner-Gardner

3. 1B, Russel Branyan/Matt Tuiasosopo/Brandon LaHair, Seattle Mariners (B/C+/C)- Branyan is poised to win the competition for the first bag at Safeco. Branyan has always had the most power in the majors, regularly hitting balls 450 feet in batting practice. Like Dunn, he doesn't make contact and strikes out at an unacceptable rate but 30-40 home runs in 500 at bats (he hit 12 in 132 last year) is enough for him to beat out two mediocre prospects. Winner- Branyan.

4. SP, Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Matt Clement/Michael Bowden, Boston Red Sox (B+/B-/B-/B-)- Bucholz is still one of the best young pitchers not yet securing a spot in the majors. He throws hard, between 90-95 and has a nasty 12-6 curve and solid change. Bowden is a new prospect and isn't particularly special, while Wakefield prefers to come out of the bullpen. Matt Clement is a wildcard, and with his injury history, probably will compete with Bartolo Colon for the "6th" spot. Projected Winner- Bucholz

5. LF, David Murphy/Nick Evans/Fernando Tatis, New York Mets (B/B-/C+)- Minaya is known to always stick with latino players before white players so that plays well for Tatis. Evans is a good prospect and came into hiw own in 2008 batting .300 in AA. Murphy is likely the front runner after performing the best in the majors and batting over .300. A platoon combing 2 of the 3 is a distinct possibility. Projected Winner- Muphy.

6. 2B, Orlando Hudson/Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles Dodgers (B+/B-)- This is a closer battle than you might think. Hudson is a premier option at second, sporting the best defense at his position and a solid .280-.300 batting average yearly. DeWitt showed som decent power, slugging over .400 in 2008 but can also play 3rd, giving Casey Blake, an again basemen, a break here and there. Hudson can play anywhere, even short if Furcal goes down, so second base may not be a lock for him. Projected winner- Orlando Hudson

7. LF, Endy Chavez/Franklyn Guttierez, Seattle Mariners (B/C+)- Chavez played good defense for the Mets, and with their glut of left fielders they ended up trading him to Seattle. His 1 homerun at Shea in 2008 likely won't help his case. Guttierez hasn't played up to his potential just yet but he did nearly go 10-10 last year with the Indiands. With a full season Guttierez could go 20-20. Projected Winner- Guttierez.

8. DH, Nick Swisher/Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees (B/B-)- Swisher hit 24 homers last year after a strong season with the Athletics. Matsui was out for most of the season with a broken wrist but still managed to hit around .300. The Yankees are loyal to Matsui and may need Swisher to play the outfield at some point. Projected Winner- Matsui.

9. RF, Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher, New York Yankees (B/B-)- Swisher is in a nother, less obvious, competition with Nady who hit 24 homeruns between the Yankees and Pirates last year. Nady is a poor defender and can't hit righties at all. Swisher is a solid defender and doesn't have awful splits. Nady and Swish could platoon, and Nady would get the lefties (the shorter end of the bargain). Nady quit on the Yankees last year, and for that Cashman is considering traded the fagbag. Projected Winner- Nady.

10. OF, Delmon Young/Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins (B/B-)- After striking out about 150 times last year, Gomez's starting job may be in jeopardy. The kid can play good defense and is fast, stealing 32 bases in '08, but his bat isn't ML ready. Young always puts up solid numbers, batting between .280-and .300 and hitting 10-14 homeruns. He could finally break out this year, but it seems more and more unlikely. Projected Winner- Gomez.