Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2010: 1-25

The above list is the first segment of the 200 player list that I've composed over the past thirty days. The eligibility requirements for this list are somewhat similar to those for Baseball America. The requirements are: a maximum of 150 career MLB at bats for non-pitchers, 50 career MLB innings pitched for starting pitchers, 25 career MLB innings pitched for relief pitchers.

These rankings take in to account batting and fielding abilities and statistics, age, height, weight and body type, baseball experience and position played. Their distance to the MLB is less of a factor than in Baseball America's rankings; Younger prospects that likely won't play for an MLB team in 2010 won't be ranked much lower than prospects identical in talent, but closer to the MLB.

The numerical scouting ratings (20-80) are all projections. A scouting rating of "80" for a fastball, means that the pitch will be one of the top pitches in professional baseball during the pitchers' prime years. 80's are rare, and are given for a Johan Santana change-up, Greg Maddux control and Adam Dunn power. A "50" grade represents the Major League average, "60" is fringe All-Star, and 40 is below average. A grade of 20 is given to poor minor league abilities (Sean Casey speed).

For players ranked 1-10, I offer MLB Comparisons using my own observations and statistics as well as some that I've found through The Baseball Prospectus. I generally shoot for a comparison of 80% of what that player could be if their development continues according to plan, and isn't halted by injuries, off the field issues etc... The comparisons are crude.

To view the Top 25, please click on the above image. The following is an in-depth look at each prospect featured in my Top 25 prospect rankings.


1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals- Strasburg leads this list without pitching in a single professional game outside of the Arizona Fall League. He's easily the most lauded prospect of this years' list, and probably the most talked about of the past decade. His 4-seam fastball--often said to hit 102 mph--sits in the 95-99 range and he has mastered control of it. This pitch projects to be one of the best in the MLB in his prime. He also features a 2-seamer with good movement that sits between 94-96 mph, an overpowering slider in the high 80s (often in the 90s), and a developing change (that could grade plus with work). The whole package makes Strasburg an elite prospect. He simply doesn't have an MLB comparison (without getting too far ahead and comparing him to the best ever), but his prospect hype and his stuff make Josh Beckett the closest available comparison.
MLB Comparison: Josh Beckett (a very good chance for more)

2. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves- Heyward will be ranked as the number 1 prospect on most top prospect lists for 2010. He's a true 5 tool player, with a great bat, great arm, plus speed, a 6'4" 220 frame and he has consistently proven himself in the minors. Just 19 years old for most of the season, Heyward posted a .963 OPS in 363 at bats between A Advanced, AA and a few AAA games. Heyward doesn't have a single hole in his game, and rates plus to plus-plus on every tool. Although he's a right fielder at the moment, he has the range and athleticism to a be very good center fielder. He doesn't quite have the power of Strawberry, but the rest of his game is similar. And barring the injuries and slow starts that hampered Cliff Floyd and J.D. Drew, Heyward looks like he could be one of the top outfield prospects of the past twenty years. Some compare him to Willie McCovey, I'd say he's more Vladamir Guerrero or Vernon Wells.
MLB Comparison: Vernon Wells

3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers- Feliz could easily be number 1 on this list-- he would have been in many previous years. His 95-101 mph fastball is absolutely electric, and his hard slider is a top of the line secondary pitch. In his MiLB career, he's struck out 325 batters in 276 innings and he whiffed 11.3 batters per 9 innings as an MLB reliever in 2009. It's difficult to find a comparison to Feliz due to his rare mix of stuff and his ripped/wiry physique, but he's somewhere between Ramon Martinez and Ubaldo Jiminez. The Rangers are slotting him in as a starter for 2010, but at the very least he'll be a very effective back of the 'pen reliever. He still needs to harness his control, and work on hiding his pitches a bit better.
MLB Comparison: Ubaldo Jiminez

4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates- Alvarez looked shaky in the first half of 2009, and he was reported to be "out of shape" by his coaches during Spring Training. He then regained his thunderous step in Altoona by June and showed his immense talent for the rest of the 2009 season. In 222 Eastern League at bats, Alvarez hit .333 and mashed 13 home runs and 18 doubles sending his OPS over 1.000. Not a fantastic fielder, he has the tools to be a solid third baseman (sporting a strong arm) and plus at first. His power is tops, and when he's on, his batting is fantastic. He needs to improve his strikeout rate, but there isn't much else that needs work in his batting game.
MLB Comparison: Miguel Cabrera

5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants- Posey has shown that he has the skill set to be one of the top 5 MLB catchers within the next couple of years. He has the bat to win a batting title and the arm and range to win a Gold Glove. His power will probably level off in the 15-20 homers area, but he could hit 40 doubles with ease. In 2009 he put up near identical numbers between AA and AAA, and batted .325 with 18 homers and 31 doubles to go with 62 walks (vs. just 68 strikeouts) in 422 at bats. He even has good 1st-3rd speed. Depending on what the Giants do in the offseason, Posey could even get a few reps at short this Spring.
MLB Comparison: Between Jason Kendall (pre-injury) and Victor Martinez.

6. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees- Montero, the young Venezuelan backstop is one of the top International Free agent signees of the past decade. Scouts have consistently rated his power as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and a few of the less conservative have been quoted in comparing his bat to a young Alex Rodriguez's. Indeed, Montero has the highest offensive potential on this list, posting a .951 OPS with a .337 batting average and 17 home runs in 347 at bats between Tampa A+ and Trenton AA as one of the youngest among his peers (19). His average-at-best potential behind the plate takes him back a few ranks-- throwing out just 20% of base runners (13% in A+) and allowing 11 passed balls in 2009. The Yankees think he can stay there with work, and I agree. There simply isn't an active comparison, but Aramis Ramirez is somewhat similar at the dish.
MLB Comparison: Aramis Ramirez

7. Michael Stanton, RF, Florida Marlins- Stanton has 80 power and is the closest thing to a guarantee for more than 30 home runs annually in the MLB, that one could possibly expect from a prospect that still can't legally order a beer in a Miami bar. At age 18, Stanton tore apart the Sally League in 2008, belting 39 homers and slugging .611. Between the Florida State League and Southern League in 2009, he was less impressive but still managed to slug .501 in 479 at bats, and had an OPS of .968 with Jupiter. He needs to work on his patience and contact--still striking out far more than he walks, but his strong arm and solid range make his defense in right field another possible plus. He could be Eric Davis or Andruw Jones at the plate, or he could be Karim Garcia. There is still a considerable space between Stanton and MLB stardom, but he has the bat.
MLB Comparison: Jermaine Dye

8. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles- The tall lefty doesn't throw hard for someone who is 6'5", but his fastball can still reach 93-94 at times. Matusz's pull resides in his control and his variety of plus pitches. Matusz throws a plus change, a plus curve and a solid slider. With continued development his curve could be his best offering, but currently his change is his best pitch, rating as one of the best secondary pitches in the 2008 draft by Baseball America. In 121 innings between A+ and AA, Matusz led his peers with a 1.91 ERA, and posted 121 strikeouts (vs. 32 walks) in 113 innings. He also went 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA (inflated by a poor first start), and 38 k's in 44 MLB innings. Currently he looks like he could be a lesser Cole Hamels, or a new Greg Swindell.
MLB Comparison: Cole Hamels

9. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers- Smoak is one of the more well-rounded prospects on this list and will probably succeed in the majors with his exceptional discipline, adept batting eye and plus defense. He has a very good bat, and although he has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira, his power potential isn't quite as impressive, but he could still approach 30 homers. In 183 at bats in the Texas League in 2009, Smoak batted .328 with a .449 OBP, six homers and ten doubles. He stumbled in AAA, but still has the ability to be a very good MLB first baseman, very soon. Will "The Thrill" Clark could be a decent comparison with a little bit of luck.
MLB Comparison: Will Clark

10. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians- Santana won the Eastern League MVP in 2009, posting an impressive .943 OPS, ranking second with 23 homeruns, and leading the league in walks with 90 (vs. 83 k's). His arm has been rated a "70" on many scouting scales, including Baseball America's Jim Callis', but his receiving and footwork still need seasoning. Either way, Santana's potential and current abilities make him a clear candidate for becoming a top MLB catcher within the next few years. Another tough prospect to find a comparison to, he's somewhere between Russell Martin and Brian McCann when tools and ceiling are put together. He doesn't quite have the swing or build to match his minor league numbers in the majors, but given enough at bats, he could post 20 homers and an OBP around .380. The 2009 catching job is his for the taking, and while he could turn out to be Roberto Petagine, I think he'll be closer to Jorge Posada with the bat.
MLB Comparison: Jorge Posada (less bat, lighter on his feet, quicker development)

11-15. This year's Top 25' has a number of very good pitchers (especially lefties), and a lack of top-tier middle infielders. Madison Bumgarner has the potential to be one of the better left-handed pitchers in the NL, but his fastball (his bread and butter) didn't reach the mid-nineties in his MLB debut- sitting in the 88-91 MPH range and surprising many of his fans. This is certainly worrisome considering his insistence on living off of the pitch-- something he's done for most of his career.But his fastball control is unmatchable, and his developing curve has promise. Christian Friedrich has one of the best curveballs in the minors, and after striking out 159 batters in 119 innings between Asheville and Modesto, Friedrich looks like a future star, and yet another promising pitcher in the Rockies system. The recent Cuban defector, Aroldis Chapman, another left-handed pitching prospect, has been wowing scouts, recently, with his 93-98 MPH fastballs (his four-seamer reaches 100 mph on occasion) and plus breaking pitches. He has the build and body to be an MLB starter, but may end up being a high-priced, high-end MLB Closer in the Billy Wagner mold. Martin Perez, yet another young (emphasis on young at 18) lefty prospect has drawn comparisons to Johan Santana with his 91-95 mph fastball and superb change. At just 18 years old, Perez made it all the way to the Texas League in 2009, after posting a 2.31 ERA and striking out 105 in 93 innings in class A. Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings has excellent wheels, and is plus-plus on the base paths. The young burner batted .318 with 67 walks (vs. 67 k's) and stole 52 bases (caught just 7 times) between the Southern and International Leagues. His power is more of the gap type, but he still has the ability to approach Carl Crawfordian numbers in the MLB.

16-20. After a dominant 2009 season, Kyle Drabek--son of former Cy Young Award winer Doug Drabek-- has taken his post as the top pitcher in Philadelphia's farm system. Drabek tore apart the Florida State League with a 2.48 ERA and 74 K's in 61 innings. He also held his own in the Eastern League in the season's second half, going 8-2 with 3.64 ERA in 96 innings. K.D.'s fastball is often clocked in the mid 90s, and his 75-80 mph spike curve is an MLB strikeout pitch. Dustin Ackley, the consolation prize to Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 Draft, finished his college career with a batting average above .400 at UNC, and has the ability to win an MLB batting title one day. He has plus speed, and with some added muscle could hit 20 homers in the big leagues. He has the range and athleticism to be a plus MLB center fielder, but his recovery from Tommy John Surgery will determine his defensive ceiling. Chris Carter, the Athletics tops prospect strikes out a bit much, and despite a good arm doesn't have the glove skills to hold an MLB position just yet. Carter has immense power though, and tore apart the Texas League with a .337 batting average, 24 home runs and 41 doubles in 490 at bats in 2009. He could easily slot in as the A's DH in 2010. Wade Davis, leads the Rays' pack of top, young pitchers, and his 93-96 MPH fastball and solid breaking stuff have left a spot in the rotation open for him for 2010. The 6'5" righty had a very promising debut with the Rays in September, posting a 3.72 ERA and striking out 32 in 32 innings. Freddie Freeman, the 6'5" first basemen in the Braves' system, established himself as a top prospect with a 2008 South Atlantic League Performance that included an .899 OPS and a .316 batting average. In 2009 he continued to show his talent, still just 19 years old by the end of the season, batting .302 with 19 doubles and an .841 OPS in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League.

21-25. The Rays featured 5 prospects in my top 25 for 2010, and the final three lay in this range. Matt Moore emerged as a lights-out, future ace pitching for Bowling Green in class A for all of 2009. He struck out an astonishing 176 batters in 123 innings with a late-moving 4-seamer clocked in the 89-95 mph range, a tight curve that will probably be a plus MLB pitch and a developing change which could rate above average one day. Jeremy Hellickson is another promising Rays arm, and sports a 90-93 sinking 2-seamer and a change that will probably be plus at the MLB level. Hellickson's command and polish are his strong points, and his ability to spot his fastball have made him a top prospect. After giving up 22 home runs in 2008, Hellickson gave up just 8 in 114 innings between AA and AAA in 2009. He posted a 2.45 ERA, and gave up 5.7 hits and struck out 10.4 per 9 innings pitched. His less than intimidating frame and his previous troubles with the long ball keep him behind Davis and Moore. Dominic Brown, an outfielder in the Phillies organization, has the mix of tools to break the top 15 on this list, but is downgraded due to his current lack of anything plus-plus on offense. Brown hit .299 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases (although he was caught 10 times) in 295 at bats between A+ and AA. He showed plus defense in right field. He has the potential to be a very good major leaguer with some polish, and looks like a Brian Jordan type. Tim Beckham, the no. 1 overall pick in the 2008 Draft, has yet to breakout and really show his potential, but still has flashed his skills, particularly in the second half of 2009. He has the batting ability to hit .300 and approach 15-20 homers in the MLB some day, and has the athletic ability to be one of the top fielding shortstops in the minors. Many at Baseball America have jumped ship because of his 43 errors and added size in 2009, but I still am a believer in his tools and believe he'll be at short-- or at the very least, second when/if he makes the MLB. His speed is the 1st-3rd variety, and will probably be expressed in doubles and triples rather than stolen bases. Reds first base prospect, Yonder Alonso rounds out my top 25 with his advanced approach, and plus bat. He missed much of 2009 due to injury, but still managed to impress with his .880 OPS in the Florida State League, and his .292 batting average and 41 walks (vs. 46 strikeouts) in 295 at bats between the Florida State and Southern League. His speed and range are below average, and overall he projects to be an average-at-best first baseman defensively. With Joey Votto in the MLB, look for Alonso to find a new home elsewhere for 2010.

Top 200 Prospects Report Schedule:
26-50: November 12th
51-100: November 15h
100-200: November 18th


Bibliography:

Callis, Jim, Will Lingo, and Jim Shonerd. "Top Prospects by League." Baseball America Prospect Rankings. Baseball America, 1 Oct. 2010. Web. 1 Nov. 2010. .

Jaffe, Jay, Joe Sheehan, and Will Caroll. "PECOTA Card." Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. Web.

SABR Minor Leagues Database, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith. "Baseball Reference." Minor League Baseball History- Baseball-Reference.com. Sports Reference LLC. Web. .

Thanks to EJMAbaseball.com and PhillyNews.com for the Strasburg and Drabek pictures.


My grades are based primarily on my personal analysis and investigation, but do often consider the analysis of professional scouts and baseball analysts, primarily at Baseball America. I also may include the analysis of qualified peers. I do give credit to all of those that contribute.