The Road to Recovery

Various injuries destroy the careers of young players every year. Some of the injuries, although fairly severe, are still treatable however and many of the players afflicted by them are able to "bounce back" and make a full recovery in a reasonable amount of time. Below is a list of the players that will likely "bounce back" from their injury-plagued 2008 season. The second segment is a list of players that will be less likely to make a full recovery--and many of their careers may very well be over.

Call it a Comeback

1. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland (B)- Buck was marred by post concussion syndrome in 2008, as well as various bumps and bruises. However, it doesn't look like he'll pull the "Ryan Church" and really drop off due to his head injuries. It took him the summer to recover, but he showed those skeptical of his future that he was A-O-K with a .367 batting average in September. Many scouts claim that Buck doesn't have a high ceiling--I disagree. At four different stops between A and AA ball, Buck hit .342, .361, .302 and .349. He's never really looked overmatched when healthy, and seems like a guy that could hit .300 and belt 20 homers--like a Nick Markakis--if all goes well.

2. Jake McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (B)- McGee was quite possibly Tampa's best pitching prospect before his season-ending Tommy John surgery last July. He led A-ball in strikeouts in 2006 with 171. In 2008 McGee was ranked the #15 prospect in the minors by Baseball America, and his career numbers justify this ranking. In 485 career innings he's struck out 553 batters and posted a 3.41 ERA. He has an electric curve and a very nice running fastball that tops out in the mid-nineties. He won't be ready until 2010, but believe me, when he is ready he'll be nasty.

3. Daniel Bard, CL, Boston Red Sox (A-)- The Sox are still considering using Bard as a starting pitcher since their bullpen is already crowded with talent. After his brief and rocky stint as a starter in A-ball, Bard put up incredible numbers as a reliever before and after his elbow surgery. In the Sally League in 2008, Bard had a 0.64 ERA and struck out 43 batters in 28 innings. After being promoted to AA, he proved that he can dominate even in a hitter's league, boasting a 1.99 ERA in 49 innings and posting 64 strikeouts. He has a 94-99 mph (able to hit 100) fastball, a low 90's sinking 2-seamer, a high 80's cutter, a low/mid-eighties slider and a 78-82mph circle change. All of his pitches are average or plus--the best being his slider, 2-seamer and four-seamer. Although his four-seamer is straight, he can place it well. His sinking 2-seamer is effective against lefties, and his slider dominates righties. He is just plain sick-nasty.

4. Josh Johnson, LHP, Florida Marlins (B+)- Johnson was another player that had to thank God that Tommy John had blown out his arm and forced his surgeon to invent Tommy John Elbow surgery. Johnson's arm was torn up in 2007 and the prognosis wasn't looking too good when he came back to pitch with the Marlins late in the offseason. He missed the beginning of 2008, but when he finally returned he was as good as ever. In 87 innings pitched, Johnson posted a 3.61 ERA and struck out 77 batters. He looked good, and will be a big part of the Marlins rotation in 2009. He's still only 25, so his youth and his size suggest that he'll put his arm problems behind him quickly.

5. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP, New York Yankees (B+)- Wang tore his planter fascia running the bases in an interleague game in the summer of 2008. The injury was devastating to the Yankees--they had lost their ace, and as a result, they missed out on the playoffs. Wang will be back for the start of 2009, and luckily he's a sinker- baller, so his foot work/leg-drive isn't as important to him as it is to a power pitcher like Roger Clemens. His arm is as healthy as ever, and this injury looked like as much of a fluke as any injury I've seen. He'll be good for 17 wins and 220 innings pitched in 2009 if everything goes as planned.

6. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (A-)- Gallardo was a victim of a freak accident like Wang. He tore apart his knee attempting to avoid a collision at first base on May 2, 2008. Gallardo is superb, and he's still only 23. He is being treated gingerly by Milwaukee's management, and won't be rushed into a heavy load until summer. In 396 innings in the minors, Gallardo struck out 457 batters and posted a
2.59 ERA. His major league numbers have been nearly as dominant--posting a 3.35 ERA in 134 innings pitched.

7. Josh Bard, C, Boston Red Sox, (B-)- After a horrendous and injury-filled 2008, it's easy to forget about how good of a contact hitter Bard actually is. In 620 at bats--a full season--between 2006 and 2007, Bard collected 189 hits, 14 homeruns, 46 doubles, 77 walks and 91 RBIs. Better yet, he batted .305. Those are damn good numbers for a catcher. Once again, Theo is a genius and he got the guy for nothing. Varitek should be a backup and a role player now that he's lost his touch, while Bard should take over and allow Kottaras to get a look here and there. ..290, 7 homers, 24 doubles and 40 rbi is probably what Bard will put up in a half season with the Sox.

8. Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays (B)- Before losing 2008 to post concussion syndrome, Hill had proven that he was a legit baller in 2007. In '07 he had a 792 OPS, hit .291 and belted 17 homers, 47 doubles and 78 rbi's-- all with good defense. For a second basemen, that is a sexy bat. Hill will be ready for 2008 and will take his job back from Joe Inglett. He has the potential to hit 20 homeruns, but he'll probably be a .285-15 homers-45 doubles-with-good-defense type guy.

9. Chris Duncan, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (B+)- Duncan has some serious power, and before 2008 he had also shown some serious potential. In '06 and '07 Duncan had a .952 and an .834 OPS. He was somewhat inconsistent in the minors, finishing with a ..417 slugging percentage in his career, but with his 6'5" frame, all it took was a few more years under his belt to show that he could easily hit 30 homers in a full season. In 2009 look for him to touch 30 homers with a batting average around .275-- '09's version of Carlos Quentin.

10. Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees (B/B+)- Hughes has the potential to be an A- pitcher but his glass body has shortened both of his major league stints into too small of a sample to really tell what he can be. He cracked a rib in 2008 and lost most of the season because of it. Although his ERA was above 6.00 in April, his performance in September and the Arizona Fall League has shown some serious promise. In 310 innings pitched in the minors, Hughes has a sparkling 2.35 ERA and 348 strikeoiuts. His 76-78 MPH knuckle-curve is near unhittable when he places it well. He also wields a plus 2 seam fastball that sits between 87-90 mph, and a plus 4-seamer that tops out at 93 and very occasionally 94 mph--usually sitting in the 90-92 mph range. He also features a cutter/slider, a nice changeup and is working on a splitter. Either way, if the kid can stay healthy he can be an ace.

Don't Call it a Comeback

1. Dontrelle Willis, LHP, Detroit Tigers (F)- Willis fell apart after leaving the pitcher friendly domain of the Marlins. His control and his body were very shaky in 2008 losing significant time to knee and forearm injuries among others. His 35 walks in 24 innings and his 9.38 ERA suggest that he is already done, even before his 27th birthday. He was also hittable in the minors, posting more hits than innings pitched in both of his stops between A+ and AAA. He's still young, but I've seen this type of play before, and unless the Tigers are hiding a serious injury, Willis will have to pull a Rick Ankiel to remain in professoinal baseball. Actually, he could very well convert to a hitter, as he does bat decently well...Anyway, the kid is a mess.

2. Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (C-)- It's hard for me to give McGowan such a downer of a projection, but the kid is in trouble. He pitched 111 innings in 2008 before falling victim to the worst possible problem for a young pitcher--a shoudler injury. His labrum was fraying and tearing, and his shoulder was simply too weak to pitch. He is supposedly going to skip labrum surgery, and concentrate on his other shoulder injury, which is even worse news. Trying to pitch for the Jays by mid-Spring is a horrid mistake for McGowan, but he seems determined to make that mistake. Even if he puts up decent numbers for a little bit, his career has been extremely shortened. Sad, but true.

3. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers (D)- Originally Hurley was a C+/B- pitcher with decent potential but with a torn rotator cuff, frayed labrum and hamstring problems his career looks to be lost. Those three injuries combined have made Hurley all but doomed to the Independent League, or atleast a career in the minors. The kid's career is over before it ever truely started--that's the sad truth.

4. Billy Wagner, CL, New York Mets (D+)- Wagner's career is all but over. Wagner will be 38 in July, and pitchers that old don't recover well from elbow surgery. He could come back and be a decent reliever, simply because he's a lefty with some good stuff that will still be decent after the surgery, but his career as a closer is over. He's had a nice career, saving 385 games. He may not hang it up right away, but know this, his days as a top tier reliever are over.

5. Pedro Martinez, RHP, New York Mets (C-)- Pedro Martinez is the best pitcher ever in my opinion. His 2000 season is simply the best pitching season ever--especially becayse he led the AL in ERA (1.74) by about 1.5 runs. The labrum injuries and an all-around tired arm are finally catching up with Pedro after four years of denial by the Red Sox and Mets. Once a fireballer with a Joba Chamberlian Slider and the best circle change in the game, Pedro has been reduced to a corner-nibbler, pitching 84-87 mph fastballs, a still-solid change and a flat slider. His 5.61 ERA in 2008 was nearly twice his career ERA (2.91) and it pretty much gurantees that Pedro won't ever return to a good pitcher--much-less a dominant one. At 37 years old, he might be able to get through 100 innings with the Mets, like David Cone did back in the day, simply out of respect--but after that they'll beg him to retire.

6. Mark Kotsay, OF/1B, Boston Red Sox (D+/C-)- Kotsay looks just about done, and with Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson, the Red Sox won't really care. The back surgery he had in 2007 kept him healthy for much of the 2008 season, but it sapped his barely average power enough to have him finish with only 6 homeruns in 2/3 of a season. His back is bad enough that it has turned him from a plus-fielder to an average one, and his days in center are definitely over. As a first basement he played well in the playoffs for the Sox, but since he'll be losing more power and more of his bat with these latest back problems, its unlikely that he'll be useful there. Looks like Kotsay is finally ABSOLUTELY useless after being semi-useless for the past few seasons.

7. Freddy Garcia, RHP, Chicago White Sox (C)- Garcia's arm and shoulder problems have kept him pretty much out of baseball for the past two seasons. Although his strikeout numbers are looking good once again, striking out 12 in 15 innings pitched in 2008, and striking out 50 in 64 innings pitched in '07, Garcia's career is just about done. The White Sox may get a solid year out of Garcia, where he'll pitch about 4.50 ERA ball, but after that, his shoulder will make him ineffective.

8. Jeff Francis, LHP, Colorado Rockies (C-)- Francis was once a B+ pitcher posting nice numbers for a pitcher starting half of his games in Coors Field. Shoulder surgery is historically devastating for a pitcher's career, and the shoulder inflammation Francis experienced last year was bad enough to make surgery look like a blessing. His 4-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 2008 were due to his wrecked shoulder, and although he wanted to pitch through it, the pain got bad enough that he simply couldn't. He'll begin rehabbing immediately, but the Rockies haven't given a time table for his return--if he ever does. His stuff was never electric to being with, so if his curve starts to flatten or his fastball loses its movement he'll be in big trouble--especially in Coors.

9. Ryan Church, RF, New York Mets (B-)- Church will improve in 2009, but his brains were seriously scrambled in 2008 and his performance showed it. His post concussion syndrome was far too sever for Minaya to rush him back like he did. Prior to his second concussion, Church had been putting up All Star numbers, slugging over .500 and hitting above .300. Upon his return however, he slumped badly enough to bring his batting average to .276, his slugging to .439 and his OPS + to a barely-average 102. His arm is still very good, and you could do worse in the corners of your outfield, but Church's All Star potential left with those lost brain cells.

10. Joe Crede, 3B, Minnesoda Twins (B-)- I like Crede--always have. He's slugged 30 home runs in 2006 and then another 22 in 2007. He's never been an OBP guys, with a career .257 batting average and a .306 OBP, but before his back injury his cheap power was valuable to the ChiSox. Now that his back is hurting him, his only asset is in serious jeopardy. Back injuries kill power, and without power, Crede is a below average player. The Twins usually make good moves and signings and have put together a nice team going in to 2009 but they should've stuck with Brendan Harris at 3rd.