Prospects to Think Twice About

There are quite a few good prospects in this year's BA top 100 and The Scouting Book.com's top 1,000. However, most of these players, won't become anything more than utility players or minor league journeyman. Only a few will become stars or decent major leaguers. Below is a list of prospects that I believe have a considerable chance at failure.

1. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners-- Saunders is a big kid, standing a well-filled-out 6'4," and that's exactly why BA has placed him in the top 100. The guy has never hit above .300, never slugged above .500, strikes out, can't field and has shown absolutely nothing that would suggest that he'll be anything more than a below-average major leaguer. The fascination with him? I'm not sure...

2. Sean West, LHP, Florida Marlins-- West has some serious control issues, and if it wasn't for his left-handed 95 mph fastball, he wouldn't be a top prospect. He's walked 112 in 270 ip in his MiLB career, which includes no stops above A ball. When he gets to AAA or the Majors, umpires will start calling a tighter strikezone, and will make guys like West through his 4-seamer down the heart of the plate. He'll either get crushed for homeruns, or he'll walk too many to be effective. Either way, think twice about him.

3. Brent Lillibridge, MI, Chicago Whitesox-- Lillibridge is a guy you want to see succeed. Although listed at 5'11, 185, Lillibridge is a little guy, truely only about 5'9" 170. His MiLB career numbers aren't prospect-worthy-- hitting .270 and slugging .429. He strikeouts out far too much for a batter with little to zilch power, and after a season in which he hit .220 in AAA, it's become completely clear that he's nothing more than a solid Utility man at best.

4. Jonathan Niese, LHP, New York Mets-- Like Yankees fans, Mets fans make too much of September call-ups. Niese put up lousy MLB numbers (an ERA over 7) and hasn't shown much beyond a decent line in the minors. He's too easily hittable, like Ian Kennedy, and doesn't have the stuff to make up for his propencity to issue walks to good hitters. In 457 MiLb innings Niese has walked 166 and given up 155 hits. In the Florida State League in 2007 he gave up 151 hits in just 134.1 innings pitched.

5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies--I strongly believe that the Matt Holliday trade was more of a desperate "sell high" move, to get rid of Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street while they still have value. Gonzalez strikes out way too much, 487 times in a little over 2200 MiLB at bats. He's never walked more than 48 times in the minors, so he doesn't post a good OBP, and outside of his power, doesn't hit well enough to make up for his short comings. He has poor pitch-recognition and won't be a star. MAYBE he'll be a Mike Cameron type hitter--but nothing more.