Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Bullish & The Bearish: Fantasy Advice on Who to Keep and Who to Get Rid of


Buy

1. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: LaRoche has a career .294 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and a very sexy .897 OPS in the minors. His 2008 debut was horrid, batting well below the "Mendoza Line" with the Pirates and Dodgers. However since 2005, LaRoche has hit over .300 every year, and has slugged about .500 in each of those years. In 1,800 at bats he has also walked 243 times-proving that he as a good eye, even at such a young age. He has been working with his hitting coach to overcome the pressure that ruined his swing in 2008. His Spring has been fantastic.

2. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz shouldn't be compared to Hughes--he's better at every aspect of the game except their small gap in control that favors Hughes. His hammer-curve is one of the best in the minors and his 95 mph riding fastball is often unhittable when he places it well. His 2008 wasn't impressive--he posted an era over 6.00-- but with an aging pitching staff the Sox may very well have Bucky back in the rotation by the All Star Break.

3. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics: Travis Buck is a hell of a hitter, hitting .326 in his minor league career. His line drive swing averages about 45 doubles in a full season, and he could easily go 20 homers and 50 doubles at some point. His horrid concussion kept him sidelined for most of 2008, but his hot September showed that he has recovered. 20 homers, 10 stolen bases, a .280-.300 batting average and 40 doubles is very possible for him this year.

4. Angel Salome, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Outside of his suddenly-decent-defense, Kendall has turned into an awful player. He has absolutely no power, and is unable to hit the ball out of the infield most of the time. He grounds into double plays and his sub .250 batting average was bad even for a catcher. Luckily th Brewers have Salome. The major-league-ready Salome won the AA batting title in his league in 2008 batting .360. He may only be 5'9".but his stocky build and his strong arm make him look like a young pudge. He may never hit more than 20 homers, but a .300 average at some point seems like a decent bet. Buy him now before too much hype makes him an early round fantasy pick. Oh and Brett Lawrie is good too.

5. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees: Most baseball fans know too little about Betances. The kid from the Bronx is a great guy--polite, kind and he regularly attends minor or and major league games to study other pitchers. He is 6'8" and has long arms and legs. He throws 93-97 mph fastballs that have considerable movement, as well as a knuckle curve that is developing into a plus-plus out pitch. He occasionally toys with a changeup, and it may be good at some point, but his two plus pitches are all he needs as of now, and they have made him an elite prospect.

Sell


1. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: In 1,175 at bats Ludwick has 65 homers, a .517 slugging percentage and 209 rbis. Ludwick is on the wrong side of thirty, and those nice career numbers are really only a product of his 2008 performance. He may not regress to an average level, but he certainly won't be as valuable as he was last year unless lightning strikes twice. Now, especially with a crowded outfield, The Cardinals will be more apt to bench Ludwick in unfavorable matchups.

2. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers- Shoulder troubles ruin careers, and that's exactly what is happening to Hurley. Sadly, he hasn't even made a career out of his talent as of now. In his 580 innings in the minors he's struck out 534 and posted a nice 3.97 era, but hasn't blown away his competition. Now with shoulder trouble, his low-mid nineties fastball will regress to average and his breaking stuff will as well. Sell.


3. Greg Smith, LHP, Colorado Rockies- Smith has some elbow trouble and didn't have good stuff to begin with. His 4.16 era in 2008 was a product of the best pitcher's park in baseball, a young arm and some luck. Now in Colorado his era will raise a point, and if he makes it to 150 innings before his arm falls off he'd be lucky. In 190 innings pitched he gave up 21 homeruns. That number of bombs is horrible considering how difficult it is to hit in that stadium. In Colorado, he'll be spanked.

4. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners- Sell him while he's still in the top 100. He has never shown anything but average hitting ability, power and bad fielding. Now that he's an outfielder (not playing third since college) his value is almost nill. He has a career .798 OPS and a 2.74 batting average in the minors and most of those at bats were in AA or below. If he's posting average numbers in the low-mid level minors its hard for me to believe he'll be anything but decent--at best--in the majors.

5. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees- Kennedy doesn't have the talent to be a good major league starter--plus he's an asshole. His 87-90 mph fastball is straight and hittable. His 12-6 curve isn't special and he doesn't control it well, and his Vulcan change is his only plus pitch. His control was supposedly close to Mussina's, but from what I've seen, he's practically Victor Zambrano or Dennis Sarfate with his placement. Sell him now while theres still some hype surrounding him.

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