Sunday, March 22, 2009

Cash Crops Part I


#1 The Boston Red Sox

If you look at the most successful teams throughout history, their teams have been built on the young talent that they've harvested from their farm. You might argue that the Yankees are an exception to this rule, however, if you take a closer look to their history, they're not. Babe Ruth was never a baby Yankee, but Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Don Mattingly, Andy Pettitte, Whitey Ford and of course, Yogi Berra were at one point in their professional careers.

Recently, the Red Sox, The Athletics, The Devil Rays and the Marlins have all been powerhouses at some time in the last decade, and all of them created those teams with a powerhouse minor league system. Over the next month, I will be ranking an providing analysis for the best Farm-Constructed MLB teams throughout the last 20 years and providing analysis. Each team is ranked by my opinion on their player quality, prospect-to-All Star (or "good" player) frequency and the team's success using those players. The last factor that goes into my ranking is the percentage of the ratio of harvested prospects on their 25 man roster in comparison to the rest of their 25 man roster. That may sound confusing, especially with such an awkward sentence, and I'm not sure how to write it more clearly, but if the percentage is 40%, then 40% of their 25 active players have been prospects for that team at one time or another. This technique may not be as effective as the usual numbers technique that I use, but bear with me, remember that I always try to give you readers some decent stuff. The number in parenthesis is the ration of former prospects now starting for the MLB team to 25 (25 man roster). The number of championships in the last decade is also listed and is next to the percentage.

1. The Boston Red Sox, (%52), 2 WS -

Looking back on the days before Theo Epstein, for a Red Sox fan, is like thinking about the Universe before the Big Bang. Epstein took an annually mediocre team and turned it into one that's won two World Series in four years. The Red Sox aren't the Devil Rays however--their team always has a veteran presence. Sometimes these veterans are rent-a-players like Jon Smoltz or Orlando Cabrera, while others bleed--well--red...Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett are two great examples. The point is, Theo is adept at finding a happy medium in constructing his roster. He mixes his powerful young-guns, his old-n'-steadies, and his high-priced free agents better than any other GM in baseball. Billy Bean got the book, Moneyball by Michael Lewis, but Epstein should get a medal. Below are some of the recent, top, young players that the Sox have raised through their farm system, from Greenville, to Pawtucket and then too the big club.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, CL-When Rivera's arm finally falls off, Papelbon will take the AL Closer's Crown off of the old man's head and step in as the most dominating closer in the AL--maybe in the MLB. Even as a Yankees/Nats fan, I love Papelbon. Papelbon's repertoire: a 95 mph 4 seamer, a mid-eighties slider, a diving splitter and an occasional change. Yes it's sexy. He's a reliever that has the stuff to be a frontline starter. His stuff is unmatchable, and he has been the biggest part of the Red Sox recent playoff run.

2. Kevin Youkilis, CI- Youkilis was drafted by the Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 MLB draft and drew Billy Beane's eye immediately. Yook is a perfect ballplayer in my opinion. The guy is %100 skill--not all muscle and 'roids. He understands the game, and most importantly, he understands that in most situations a walk is as valuable as a single. He gets on base at an impressive rate, fields the corners extremely well and is the true MVP of the Red Sox. Francona, one of the best managers of my generation, taught Youkilis to take a more liberal approach at the plate in Spring 2008. That new approach resulted in 29 homers, 115 ribbies and a .312 batting average. He is also a great role model (outside of the gut) for young baseball fans/players. No 'roids, no problem.

3. Clay Buchholz, SP- I didn't place Buchholz third because of what he is--I placed him here because he WILL be one of the best young pitchers in the AL in the next few years. Hugh's got the hype. A "ninety five MPH fastball" the Yankee fans said...Not so. His fastball is 90-92 and he's a placement pitcher. True, Hughes looks like he'll be a good player, but he's not Buchholz. Not nearly. Buchholz has a 95 mph rising four-seamer, a developing two-seamer, and a 12-6 curve that could potentially beat out Kazmir's slider for the best pitch in the AL East (outside of Rivera's cutter). Oh, and his change is pretty nasty too. He hasn't been slotted in to the rotation just yet, but if Theo knows what he is doing--and he does--he'll have him in there by mid-season. He reminds me of a young Roy Halladay.

4. Jon Lester, LHSP- Lester, drafted in the second round of the 2002 amatuer draft by the Red Sox, was one of the greatest "comeback stories" in the history of the game. Hotchkins disease kept him from the sport for a couple of seasons, but when he returned he returned with fire in his eye. With the big club, the kid threw a no-hitter in the Spring of '08. Schilling is about to ride off into the sunset, and Beckett/Daisuke can't carry all alone. Lester is the new leader of this staff, as long as the Alpha Male, Beckett, recognizes Lester's ability. In his first full season Lester went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152 k's in 210 ip. His numbers were sexy last year, and although some say he'll regress slightly in 2008 to James Shields numbers, I disagree. His curveball and his placement make me think he's closer to Cole Hamels than to Shields.

5. Dustin Pedroia, 2B- Nobody expected Pedroia to be what he's become except for me of course. Not to gloat, but I saw this coming...Pedroia has always been a gamer. Pedroia pushes his 5'9" (really 5'6") stature well beyond the limit. He swings like he's aiming for the Citgo Sign--quite a few blocks from Fenway-- and he fields like he has a thing for brown face paint. He makes some of the best contact in the game, striking out a ridiculously low 52 times in 653 at bats in 2008 while hitting .326. In his short career, the energizer Bunny has walked more times than he has struck out--a feat that almost no batter today could dream of. Although his minor league OPS was .845, Pedroia was never viewed as anything more than a stopgap to Hanley Ramirez, and then when Hanley was traded, he was thought to be only a decent option to hold second base down for a couple of years until a big free agent name appeared on the market. Then, in spring training '07, the little fireball started heating up. His career stats through 1262 at bats include a .313 batting average, 140 rbis, 104 BB's 101 K's, 140 rbis, 209 runs and 320 hits. His base running ability is also one of the best in the AL, slyly stealing 27 bases in his career, vs. only 3 gun-downs. If he was a Yankee, he'd already be a "lock for the Hall of Fame" like Jeter was deemed at age 26...

6. Nomar Garciaparra, SS- Before Papi, D-Ped, Schilling, Papelbon and Youkilis were beloved, there was Nomar. Jeter's smile always got the press, but Nomar was the better hitter AND fielder in his heyday. In 3,968 at bats with the Red Sox Nomar, brother of the less famous Ramon, had 1282 hits and batted .323 with 178 bombs. His arm was stronger than Jeter's, and at times, his Range Factor was nearly a point higher--even with similar pitching. Tearing apart his wrist has cost him his chance at winning a World Series as a starter, but he will be in the Hall in a few years, so don't feel too bad for him.

7. Jason Varitek, C- After being drafted in the first round of the 1993 draft by the Twins, Varitek was traded to the Mariners and then with Derek Lowe to the Sox in July, 1997. Papelbon is the pitching staff's leader, but Varitek was the one-field General for the last decade. At the plate Varitek has always been solid, extremely close in yearly statistics to Mike Lieberthal. Although Posada has the better bat, Varitek had the better glove and the bigger balls. Not only did he slap A-Rod around in 2005, but he's won a few games off of Rivera. Through about 9 seasons worth of at bats (about 450 a season is a full season for a catcher) he had 654 ribbies and 161 homers. I never really bought the "you need a catcher that can call a good game" thing, because, in the end, the pitcher decides what he pitches. If a catcher can't hit or field like Wil Nieves, I don't think he has any place in the MLB--even with a nice rapport with his pitchers. I didn't believe it until Ausmus and Varitek, and what makes Varitek an All Star is the fact that he can call a great game and hit as well. Anyway, the point is both of their staff's love them, and both of these guys are gamers. A true leader, Varitek deserves his spot in the heart of ever Red Sox fan.

8. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF- In a few years Ellsbury will be near the top of this list. The kid is Reyes-fast, and stole 50 bases in '08--amazing considering his .336 OBP. He doesn't strike out too often, and he can take a walk well enough to slot in as a leadoff man for a long time. Even though his '08 numbers weren't as earth-shattering as those he put up in 2007, his minor league numbers suggest that he'll be an annual All-Star with more experience. In barely 1000 at bats in the minors Ellsbury hit .314 with 164 runs, a .390 OBP and 105 stolen bases. That averages out to about 90 runs and 60 stolen bases a season. His power has developed at an impressive pace since his call-up, and someday he will hit 15 homers to go along with his stellar peripherals.

9. Trot Nixon, RF- Nixon had a relatively short career due to injury. Still, he was an immense talent in the early days of his career and Nix managed to help the Sox to a World Series before he left Boston. In 3,285 at bats with the Red Sox, Nixon collected 912 hits and crushed 106 bombs while posting an OPS+ of about 120. After he left the Sox his career fell apart, but while he was with them he helped them win the World Series, and helped win them more than one playoff game as well.

10. Jed Lowrie, MI- Lowrie is a very good player, but no future MVP. Still, he can hit for a high average and field most of the positions on the diamond. His lousy range should tell you that third base-- or possibly second base-- is in his future. Wherever he plays he'll be solid. He had a .381 OBP in the minors and an .827 OPS. At some point Lowrie will hit about .300, post an OBP of about .370-.390 and slug about .450. He has a nice line drive swing, and could be a number 2 hitter if Pedroia gets injured, but more than likely he'll be towards the back of the lineup. Either way, Lowrie is a guy that every team wants. And, you never know, he could turn into Mike Aviles one day.

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