Sic Transit Gloria

For some reason, every year baseball analysts, reporters, and fantasy baseball "advisers," love to over-hype every single prospect that has had a few good major league appearances the year before. The following list is a number of players that don't seem to be able to live up to their lofty expetations--at least not yet. Many of these guys will be good or even All Star players, but many of them also will disappear into the minors or become career reserves/journeymen. To Lindy's Fantasy Baseball Analysts-- Remember, only about a quarter (a third if you're lucky) the the top 100 prospects will become good or All Star MLB players. Simply put, someone has gotta fail.

2. Kei Igawa, LHP, New York Yankees- The Yankees poor scouting in Japan really cost them some dough. Igawa is a downright BAD pitcher, even out of the bullpen. A guy that can't control a 85-88 mph fastball is not a guy that you want on your team. His slider isn't bad, but again, he can barely keep it in the strike zone, much less spot it. The Yankees took him off the 40-Man Roster for 2008, and still nobody has touched him on waivers. He wins the number one spot, because he has the worst pay-production ratio and promise of any of these guys. At least Bush and Patterson still have a shot at being decent. He's doing well in AAA, but don't let that--or his first name-- fool you, he's am absolutely abominable pitcher.

3. Matt Bush, RHP/INF, Toronto Blue Jays/Free Agent- Bush, the first pick of the 2004 draft, is the owner of the largest San Diego Padres signing bonus (for a draft pick) in team history. He has fantastic tools, and can throw 95, but his behavior issues and downright poor game-knowledge killed his career. His stats as a position player were horrid, and he never made it past A-Ball in his three active seasons. Now converted to a pitcher Bush has soon a glimpse of success (seven innings worth) but he then blew out his elbow, got suspended twice more (now three times in total in his career)) for drinking-related fighting/incidents, and now once again looks hopeless. I hope he does well, because he's not a bad guy, he just has problems with stress and booze. One day he could come up as a Jose Veras type pitcher, but certainly won't ever be a star Short Stop.

4. Bryan Bullington, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates- Bullington was one of the more puzzling no.1 picks of the recent decade. The Pirates passed up Prince Fielder, Matt Cain, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Francouer for a guy that has done absolutely nothing noticeable in the minors or majors.

5. Alex Escobar, OF, Free Agent- Escobar's failure was really just bad luck. The kid has always had the tools to be Ken Griffey Jr, but a slew of shoulder and knee injuries have ruined his promise. The Mets organization were convinced that they had a Carlos Beltran on their hands, but now turning 31, Escobar has finally lost the confidence of every team in the league. His tools are still there, but as it stands, he probably won't ever be anything more than a MiLB journeyman.

6. Sean Burroughs, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays/Free Agent- Drafted 9th, in the first round of the 1998 Amateur draft, Burroughs looked to be a star. His batting average has always been decent, but his power completely dissapeared once he started playing professionally. His .358 slugging percentage in professional ball just plain isn't going to get it done--especially for a third basemen. He's not exactly a AAAA player either. His slugging percentage in the minors was still only .437, and even though he had a strong arm and good range, his career fielding percentage was just 93.8%. He's finally done, but I personally think he could still serve as a solid, low-end bench INF in the MLB. Hell, if Wil Nieves is still getting job offers than why shouldn't Sean Burroughs.


7. Timo Perez, CF, Detroit Tigers/Free Agent- Every Met fan remember's "Timo Time" running across the Shea scoreboard. Unfortunately for Timo, however, his time never came. Like Gabe Kapler, Timo is a perfect example of a AAAA player. His career MiLB numbers--a .322 batting average and an .873 OPS-- are sexy, no doubt, but his ability to play in the MLB is obviously lacking. T.P. are perfect initials for Timo, as he's an asswhipe.

8. Sidney Ponson, SP, Kansas City Royals- Ugh, the fatman really sucks. He had sooo much promise but his body/weight problems have finally made him a journeyman/veteran spot starter.I'm not going to lie, I was on Ponson's bandwagon in 2002/2003 when he got it together and started pitching like an ace. But he then proceeded to gain about 20 pounds of fat and put up a league leading 265 hits and 127 earned runs in 2004. Since then he has been below average on every one of his stops around the US. The classic "I already have my money so why should I work hard?."


9. Corey Patterson, CF, Washington Nationals- Patterson used to be the Cubbies favorite baby bear. Drafted 3rd overall in 1998, Patterson has had SOME MLB success, but is finally looking like he's toast. He's awful at getting on base (.291 career OBP) and his career .407 SLG doesn't exactly justify this weakness. He is a victim of WTP. He does have some speed, and can get hot with the bat, but seriously guys, do you think this guy will ever be a 20-20 player again? He'll probably never even be a regular again.


10. Eric Duncan, 1B, New York Yankees- It was either Duncan or Andy Marte here, and I honestly think Duncan is more doomed than Marte--at least Marte could be a Wilson Betemit some day. Eric Duncan was the cream of the Yankees crop before their recent wave of high powered prospects. Every "real" fan of the Yankees knows this guy, and although he didn't have the hype that Drew Henson did, he was highly touted by the organization's management. Now, after 6 seasons in the minors, his career numbers look pretty lousy for a crappy-fielding first baseman. A .247 batting average and his .416 slugging percentage are pretty much the best stats out of his career MiLB stat- line...Ouch.


11. Carlos Gomez, CF, Minnesota Twins- Sure, the kid is very young--going on 24-- but as of right now, he looks like a future, decent backup rather than a star player. Gomez's numbers last year were aweful, and they downright hurt the Twins. 614 plate appearances of .296 OBP, and .360 SLG, baseball is unacceptable for an outfielder...Even a rookie. He's shown know improvement for 2009, and is currently sporting a stomach-churning, .529 OPS. He has zero plate discipline, has never hit 10 homers or hit .300 at any level and isn't exactly a whiz on defense either. Does this sound like a future star to you? It doesn't even sound anything close to a future leadoff man to me...Much less an All Star. Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and some other stiff for Johan Santana. Fair.

12. Daniel Cabrera, SP, Washington Nationals- Now entering his 6th season in the MLB, and turning 28 in May, it's finally obvious that Cabrera will never be Josh Beckett. The guy's control is horrible, and he isn't a winner. He gives up with men on base, and even though the Orioles weren't great, they still gave him some support. His 18 Losses in 2007 should have been enough for the Orioles to get rid of him, but to their credit they stomached it for one more season. In his career he has put up more walks (486) than strike outs (480)--and that should be enough to convince you that he's garbage. He may become a decent reliever, but nothing more than a Brian Bruney or Kyle Farnsworth if that ever happens.


Takes the Cake...

1. Drew Henson, 3B, New York Yankees- Because the Yankees tend to have the most hyped and often over-hyped prospects in the game, they also tend to have the biggest busts. Drew Henson is likely the loudest bust of the past decade. He ended his minor league career with a fielding percentage a hair above .900, and had an OPS of just .728. He did manage to set a record for strikeouts (at the time) in the International League with 151, with less than a full season's worth of at bats. He quickly switched to football, after costing the Yankees millions. He faired no better, and finally retired in 2008. Nice guy, great athlete, simply couldn't put it together professionally.

The New York Yankees- Cash Crops Part II

2.) The New York Yankees, 4 WS, (56%)

Considering the Yankees' minor league system is responsible for some of the best current players in the game--Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano--it's hard to believe that they lost sight of the importance of homegrown youngsters for much of the early 2000's. Brian Cashman finally got a say in the whole thing, and has reverted back to the model that work for the Yankees in the mid to late-nineties.

1. Mariano Rivera, CL- In my opinion, Mariano Rivera is THE best Closer of all time, and certainly the best modern reliever. Yes Trevor Hoffman is great, but his change and sinker don't come close to striking the fear that Rivera's 94 mph cutter (really a slider) does on opposing batters. Rivera's resume is sparkling. He's been an All Star 9 times and counting, won the AL Rolaids Relief four times, has been both an ALCS and World Series MVP and has led the league in saves three times. He's also the best post-season reliever of all time.

2. Derek Jeter, SS- Jeter was a large part of the four World Series that Torre's Yankees won in the mid-late-1990's (and 2000). He holds numerous post-season hitting records, has a .316 career batting average, has been in the top 10 in MVP voting five times, has won three silver sluggers, has three gold gloves, and has made the All Star team nine times. You can say what you want about his fielding, but you can't deny that Jeter is deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame.

3. Jorge Posada, C- It's hard to find a more reliable catcher than Posada. He'll probably just miss the Hall, but his numbers still put him as one of the top twenty catchers of all time. Besides his postseason success, Posada has made the All Star team five times and has won three silver sluggers. He's the true leader of the Yankees, and certainly a VERY large factor in their success.

4. Andy Pettitte, LHP- Andy Pettitte has been an absolute horse for the Yankees. He's third all-time on the Yankees' list of Wins (by a pitcher), and is ahead of stars like Ron Guidry. His career record is something you'd see in a Hall of Fame pitcher's line-- 216-116 with a 63% win-loss percentage. 179 of those wins (and counting) were with the Yankees, and at age 36 he may be old, but certainly isn't done.

5. Bernie Williams, CF- Bernabe Williams, along with Jeter, carried the Yankees on his back--offensively--to the post-season year in and year out. During their streak, the Yankees were known for their pitching, bullpen and defense--but usually didn't sport more than 3 All Star batters at once. Bernie's career .297 batting average, .380 OBP and .477, although very good, don't do justice to how valuable he was to those winning teams. For a guy that has won a Batting Title, four Gold Gloves, been to the All Star game five times, was an ALCS MVP and won a Silver Slugger, Bernie doesn't get a lot of Hall consideration. He may not be Hall-Worthy, but he certainly should be considered to be one of the best hitters in recent history.

6. Joba Chamberlain, RHP- At age 23, Joba Chamberlain hasn't had the chance to amass a long MLB resume. What he has on his resume, however, is extremely promising. Joba has the stuff, star-personality, and name to be one of THE BEST pitchers in the AL for years to come. With many of the Yankees hanging up their cleats over the past few years, and with more doing so in the next few years, Chamberlain is poised to be the Yanks' Pitching Staff leader for the next decade. Basically, he's Francisco Liriano without the elbow trouble.

7. Alfonso Soriano, 2B- Soriano only had 3 full seasons with the Yankees, but will forever be the name tied to the most famous (infamous) trade of all time--A-Rod to the Yankees. Soriano played like an MVP for 2 of the three years he started at second for the Yankees, going 39-41 in 2002 and then 38-35 in 2003. If the MLB was on the steroids-thing earlier, then he would've won an MVP in one of those years. Regardless, Soriano is a hell of a player, and even if his time with the Yankees was relatively short, his worth gave the Yankees the best hitter of the modern era.

8. Robinson Cano, 2B- Cano wasn't bad in 2007, he was actually above the league average as far as batting for a second basemen. For a guy that hit .306, .342 and .297 in the previous three years, however, his numbers were a disappointment. The kid has a bright future ahead of him, and probably a batting title (or a few) if everything goes as planned.

9. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP- Wang is about to fill the void that Pettitte is leaving behind as he slides into retirement. At age 29 Wang is a young horse. In his young career Wang has already started 98 games, pitched over 634 innings, and won 54 games. His foot injury has made some question his future.

10. Ramiro Mendoza, LRP/SP- During his time in the bigs, Mendoza was a very valuable tool. His fantastic sinker made him a great reliever to bring in with men on base--regularly inducing a double play. His ability to provide a quality starts when any of the Yankees top five went down was irreplaceable. When one of their starter's heads to the DL, most teams have to make due with rookies, or veterans from the scrap-heap. Torre's Yankees however, had an above average starter basically acting as a 6th man in the rotation.

Cash Crops Part II

3) Oakland Athletics

Clearly the Red Sox have been the best at constructing a championship team with their farm system. However, in the time of Mr. Billy Beane, the most influential figure on the business-side of baseball, it's hard to overlook the Oakland Athletics' Success over the past decade using their farm. Beane created a mainstream statistical system by which to measure baseball players. Although some of the stats he used were made before him, like "On-Base-Percentage", (OBP) he was the guy that first put these once obscure measurements to use. Now General Managers like Theo Epstein (Red Sox), Jim Bowden (Washington Nationals), Mark Shapiro (Cleveland Indians) and J.P. Ricciardi use the system that Beane assembled and are creating similar teams to the early 2000s Oakland Athletics.

Even though the Athletics haven't won a World Series in two decades, Beane's ballclub had a League Division Series streak of four years (2000-2003) and made the AL Championship Series in 2006. The impressive part isn't this team's ability to make the playoffs however. The impressive part is that the Oakland Athletics had between the third and fifth lowest payroll in the MLB during most of this timespan. Even in 2006, when Beane was allowed to open the wallet (a little) the Athletics still sported a payroll that ranked 22nd in the league. Below are the players that--from the 1990s until now--have made the Oakland Athletics the second most successful farm-based franchise.

1. Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves- Ricky Henderson was probably the best thing to come out of the Oakland System in the last 30 years, however Tim Hudson isn't a too-distant second. In 10 seasons, (6 with the Athletics) Hudson has posted a 3.48 career era, over 2000 innings pitched, 146 wins to just 77 losses, and a 1.25 WHIP. In his 6 seasons with the Athletics, from 1999-2004, Hudson posted an ERA of just over 3.30, 92 wins and pitched 1,240 innings over 183 games started. Hudson wasn't only an ace, but he was Oakland's work horse. Before C.C. Sabathia came Tim Hudson. Now 10 years after coming up with the Athletics, Hudson has the 13th best ERA among active pitchers, has started for the Athletics in the ALDS and ALCS, has made two All Star games and is ranked 9th in shutouts.

2. Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston Astros- Tejada was the emotional leader of the Athletics, along with Eric Chavez, for seven seasons. Between 1997 and 2003, Tejada drove in 604 runs (average over 100 rbi per 600 AB), hit 156 bombs and slugged about .460. In his career, Tejada has now made 5 All Star games, has won 2 silver sluggers, an MVP Award and is 17th among active players in homeruns. Now with the Astros, Tejada's star is finally fading at age 35 (in May). However, during the half of his career that he played in Oakland, Tejada led his team to the playoffs and was their most talented position-player since Rickey Henderson.

3. Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland Athletics- Eric Chavez is to the Athletics what Mattingly was to the Yankees in the 80s. Drafted by Billy Beane in 1996 out of highschool, it took Chavez less than three seasons to make the MLB roster. Now after 11 seasons, Chavez is still with the Athletics and is poised to make a comeback in 2009 after his shoulder surgery in 2006. Between 2000 and 2006 Chavez hit 199 homers, won 6 Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger and batted in 660 runs. Throughout his career Chavez has been a rock for the Athletics. Although Scott Rolen is considered one of the best (if not the best) third basemen in the NL in last 20 years, Eric Chavez is very close to first with the same amount of Silver Sluggers (one), only one less Gold Glove (6), and has even averaged 2 more home runs per 162 games (29 vs. Rolen's 27). Only two years older than Chavez, Rolen still leads the two in All Star Appearances (6 to 0), Gold Gloves, homeruns, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. However, if Chavez can recover in 2009, he'll certainly give Rolen "a run for his money" through the final years of their careers.

4. Jason Giambi, 1B, Oakland Athletics- After an eight-season stint with the Yankees, Giambi returned to the Athletics in 2009. Although steroid allegations have put a dent in Giambi's reputation, it is undeniable that he was still one of the best power-hitters since 1990. In his career Giambi has a .942 OPS, a .408 OBP, 396 home runs and over 1,270 rbi. Yankees fans never truly appreciated what Giambi brought to the team due to the team's overall lack of postseason success in the 2000s. Not counting his two off years, Giambi has hit 183 home runs, average about 100 rbis and an OPS consistently above .900 during his time with the Yankees. His trophy case, although lacking a World Series Ring, includes 5 All-Star games, an MVP award, two Silver Sluggers and the Major League's "Hutch Award going to the league's most productive hitter. Now 38, Giambi is about ready to put his fourteen-year-old career to rest.

5. Barry Zito, LHP, San Francisco Giants- Early in his career, Zito was one of the top five pitchers in baseball and the best in the AL at certain times. Even though Zito is only 30 years old, he was used to the point of complete burn-out by the Oakland Athletics. Now with the Giants, he's not the pitcher he used to be. How can a pitcher be so "done" by age 30? Easy. The Athletics completely relied on the shoulders of three young pitchers-- Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder-- for most of their playoff run in the early 2000s. For his career, Zito has already pitched only a season short of 2,000 innings (1,807 ip) and has started 287. With the Athletics, between 2000 and 2005, Zito had a 3.53 ERA, won 102 games, pitched 1,430 innings, posted a 1.25 WHIP, made 3 All Star appearances and won the American League's Cy Young Award (2002). Not only are those numbers impressive, but they certainly help explain why I'm rating this team's pitching-development as one of the best in the MLB.

cont'd 4/10/09