Sic Transit Gloria

For some reason, every year baseball analysts, reporters, and fantasy baseball "advisers," love to over-hype every single prospect that has had a few good major league appearances the year before. The following list is a number of players that don't seem to be able to live up to their lofty expetations--at least not yet. Many of these guys will be good or even All Star players, but many of them also will disappear into the minors or become career reserves/journeymen. To Lindy's Fantasy Baseball Analysts-- Remember, only about a quarter (a third if you're lucky) the the top 100 prospects will become good or All Star MLB players. Simply put, someone has gotta fail.

2. Kei Igawa, LHP, New York Yankees- The Yankees poor scouting in Japan really cost them some dough. Igawa is a downright BAD pitcher, even out of the bullpen. A guy that can't control a 85-88 mph fastball is not a guy that you want on your team. His slider isn't bad, but again, he can barely keep it in the strike zone, much less spot it. The Yankees took him off the 40-Man Roster for 2008, and still nobody has touched him on waivers. He wins the number one spot, because he has the worst pay-production ratio and promise of any of these guys. At least Bush and Patterson still have a shot at being decent. He's doing well in AAA, but don't let that--or his first name-- fool you, he's am absolutely abominable pitcher.

3. Matt Bush, RHP/INF, Toronto Blue Jays/Free Agent- Bush, the first pick of the 2004 draft, is the owner of the largest San Diego Padres signing bonus (for a draft pick) in team history. He has fantastic tools, and can throw 95, but his behavior issues and downright poor game-knowledge killed his career. His stats as a position player were horrid, and he never made it past A-Ball in his three active seasons. Now converted to a pitcher Bush has soon a glimpse of success (seven innings worth) but he then blew out his elbow, got suspended twice more (now three times in total in his career)) for drinking-related fighting/incidents, and now once again looks hopeless. I hope he does well, because he's not a bad guy, he just has problems with stress and booze. One day he could come up as a Jose Veras type pitcher, but certainly won't ever be a star Short Stop.

4. Bryan Bullington, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates- Bullington was one of the more puzzling no.1 picks of the recent decade. The Pirates passed up Prince Fielder, Matt Cain, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Francouer for a guy that has done absolutely nothing noticeable in the minors or majors.

5. Alex Escobar, OF, Free Agent- Escobar's failure was really just bad luck. The kid has always had the tools to be Ken Griffey Jr, but a slew of shoulder and knee injuries have ruined his promise. The Mets organization were convinced that they had a Carlos Beltran on their hands, but now turning 31, Escobar has finally lost the confidence of every team in the league. His tools are still there, but as it stands, he probably won't ever be anything more than a MiLB journeyman.

6. Sean Burroughs, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays/Free Agent- Drafted 9th, in the first round of the 1998 Amateur draft, Burroughs looked to be a star. His batting average has always been decent, but his power completely dissapeared once he started playing professionally. His .358 slugging percentage in professional ball just plain isn't going to get it done--especially for a third basemen. He's not exactly a AAAA player either. His slugging percentage in the minors was still only .437, and even though he had a strong arm and good range, his career fielding percentage was just 93.8%. He's finally done, but I personally think he could still serve as a solid, low-end bench INF in the MLB. Hell, if Wil Nieves is still getting job offers than why shouldn't Sean Burroughs.


7. Timo Perez, CF, Detroit Tigers/Free Agent- Every Met fan remember's "Timo Time" running across the Shea scoreboard. Unfortunately for Timo, however, his time never came. Like Gabe Kapler, Timo is a perfect example of a AAAA player. His career MiLB numbers--a .322 batting average and an .873 OPS-- are sexy, no doubt, but his ability to play in the MLB is obviously lacking. T.P. are perfect initials for Timo, as he's an asswhipe.

8. Sidney Ponson, SP, Kansas City Royals- Ugh, the fatman really sucks. He had sooo much promise but his body/weight problems have finally made him a journeyman/veteran spot starter.I'm not going to lie, I was on Ponson's bandwagon in 2002/2003 when he got it together and started pitching like an ace. But he then proceeded to gain about 20 pounds of fat and put up a league leading 265 hits and 127 earned runs in 2004. Since then he has been below average on every one of his stops around the US. The classic "I already have my money so why should I work hard?."


9. Corey Patterson, CF, Washington Nationals- Patterson used to be the Cubbies favorite baby bear. Drafted 3rd overall in 1998, Patterson has had SOME MLB success, but is finally looking like he's toast. He's awful at getting on base (.291 career OBP) and his career .407 SLG doesn't exactly justify this weakness. He is a victim of WTP. He does have some speed, and can get hot with the bat, but seriously guys, do you think this guy will ever be a 20-20 player again? He'll probably never even be a regular again.


10. Eric Duncan, 1B, New York Yankees- It was either Duncan or Andy Marte here, and I honestly think Duncan is more doomed than Marte--at least Marte could be a Wilson Betemit some day. Eric Duncan was the cream of the Yankees crop before their recent wave of high powered prospects. Every "real" fan of the Yankees knows this guy, and although he didn't have the hype that Drew Henson did, he was highly touted by the organization's management. Now, after 6 seasons in the minors, his career numbers look pretty lousy for a crappy-fielding first baseman. A .247 batting average and his .416 slugging percentage are pretty much the best stats out of his career MiLB stat- line...Ouch.


11. Carlos Gomez, CF, Minnesota Twins- Sure, the kid is very young--going on 24-- but as of right now, he looks like a future, decent backup rather than a star player. Gomez's numbers last year were aweful, and they downright hurt the Twins. 614 plate appearances of .296 OBP, and .360 SLG, baseball is unacceptable for an outfielder...Even a rookie. He's shown know improvement for 2009, and is currently sporting a stomach-churning, .529 OPS. He has zero plate discipline, has never hit 10 homers or hit .300 at any level and isn't exactly a whiz on defense either. Does this sound like a future star to you? It doesn't even sound anything close to a future leadoff man to me...Much less an All Star. Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and some other stiff for Johan Santana. Fair.

12. Daniel Cabrera, SP, Washington Nationals- Now entering his 6th season in the MLB, and turning 28 in May, it's finally obvious that Cabrera will never be Josh Beckett. The guy's control is horrible, and he isn't a winner. He gives up with men on base, and even though the Orioles weren't great, they still gave him some support. His 18 Losses in 2007 should have been enough for the Orioles to get rid of him, but to their credit they stomached it for one more season. In his career he has put up more walks (486) than strike outs (480)--and that should be enough to convince you that he's garbage. He may become a decent reliever, but nothing more than a Brian Bruney or Kyle Farnsworth if that ever happens.


Takes the Cake...

1. Drew Henson, 3B, New York Yankees- Because the Yankees tend to have the most hyped and often over-hyped prospects in the game, they also tend to have the biggest busts. Drew Henson is likely the loudest bust of the past decade. He ended his minor league career with a fielding percentage a hair above .900, and had an OPS of just .728. He did manage to set a record for strikeouts (at the time) in the International League with 151, with less than a full season's worth of at bats. He quickly switched to football, after costing the Yankees millions. He faired no better, and finally retired in 2008. Nice guy, great athlete, simply couldn't put it together professionally.

Cash Crops Part I

#1 The Boston Red Sox

If you look at the most successful teams throughout history, their teams have been built on the young talent that they've harvested from their farm. You might argue that the Yankees are an exception to this rule, however, if you take a closer look to their history, they're not. Babe Ruth was never a baby Yankee, but Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Don Mattingly, Andy Pettitte, Whitey Ford and of course, Yogi Berra were at one point in their professional careers.

Recently, the Red Sox, The Athletics, The Devil Rays and the Marlins have all been powerhouses at some time in the last decade, and all of them created those teams with a powerhouse minor league system. Over the next month, I will be ranking an providing analysis for the best Farm-Constructed MLB teams throughout the last 20 years and providing analysis. Each team is ranked by my opinion on their player quality, prospect-to-All Star (or "good" player) frequency and the team's success using those players. The last factor that goes into my ranking is the percentage of the ratio of harvested prospects on their 25 man roster in comparison to the rest of their 25 man roster. That may sound confusing, especially with such an awkward sentence, and I'm not sure how to write it more clearly, but if the percentage is 40%, then 40% of their 25 active players have been prospects for that team at one time or another. This technique may not be as effective as the usual numbers technique that I use, but bear with me, remember that I always try to give you readers some decent stuff. The number in parenthesis is the ration of former prospects now starting for the MLB team to 25 (25 man roster). The number of championships in the last decade is also listed and is next to the percentage.

1. The Boston Red Sox, (%52), 2 WS -

Looking back on the days before Theo Epstein, for a Red Sox fan, is like thinking about the Universe before the Big Bang. Epstein took an annually mediocre team and turned it into one that's won two World Series in four years. The Red Sox aren't the Devil Rays however--their team always has a veteran presence. Sometimes these veterans are rent-a-players like Jon Smoltz or Orlando Cabrera, while others bleed--well--red...Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett are two great examples. The point is, Theo is adept at finding a happy medium in constructing his roster. He mixes his powerful young-guns, his old-n'-steadies, and his high-priced free agents better than any other GM in baseball. Billy Bean got the book, Moneyball by Michael Lewis, but Epstein should get a medal. Below are some of the recent, top, young players that the Sox have raised through their farm system, from Greenville, to Pawtucket and then too the big club.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, CL-When Rivera's arm finally falls off, Papelbon will take the AL Closer's Crown off of the old man's head and step in as the most dominating closer in the AL--maybe in the MLB. Even as a Yankees/Nats fan, I love Papelbon. Papelbon's repertoire: a 95 mph 4 seamer, a mid-eighties slider, a diving splitter and an occasional change. Yes it's sexy. He's a reliever that has the stuff to be a frontline starter. His stuff is unmatchable, and he has been the biggest part of the Red Sox recent playoff run.

2. Kevin Youkilis, CI- Youkilis was drafted by the Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 MLB draft and drew Billy Beane's eye immediately. Yook is a perfect ballplayer in my opinion. The guy is %100 skill--not all muscle and 'roids. He understands the game, and most importantly, he understands that in most situations a walk is as valuable as a single. He gets on base at an impressive rate, fields the corners extremely well and is the true MVP of the Red Sox. Francona, one of the best managers of my generation, taught Youkilis to take a more liberal approach at the plate in Spring 2008. That new approach resulted in 29 homers, 115 ribbies and a .312 batting average. He is also a great role model (outside of the gut) for young baseball fans/players. No 'roids, no problem.

3. Clay Buchholz, SP- I didn't place Buchholz third because of what he is--I placed him here because he WILL be one of the best young pitchers in the AL in the next few years. Hugh's got the hype. A "ninety five MPH fastball" the Yankee fans said...Not so. His fastball is 90-92 and he's a placement pitcher. True, Hughes looks like he'll be a good player, but he's not Buchholz. Not nearly. Buchholz has a 95 mph rising four-seamer, a developing two-seamer, and a 12-6 curve that could potentially beat out Kazmir's slider for the best pitch in the AL East (outside of Rivera's cutter). Oh, and his change is pretty nasty too. He hasn't been slotted in to the rotation just yet, but if Theo knows what he is doing--and he does--he'll have him in there by mid-season. He reminds me of a young Roy Halladay.

4. Jon Lester, LHSP- Lester, drafted in the second round of the 2002 amatuer draft by the Red Sox, was one of the greatest "comeback stories" in the history of the game. Hotchkins disease kept him from the sport for a couple of seasons, but when he returned he returned with fire in his eye. With the big club, the kid threw a no-hitter in the Spring of '08. Schilling is about to ride off into the sunset, and Beckett/Daisuke can't carry all alone. Lester is the new leader of this staff, as long as the Alpha Male, Beckett, recognizes Lester's ability. In his first full season Lester went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152 k's in 210 ip. His numbers were sexy last year, and although some say he'll regress slightly in 2008 to James Shields numbers, I disagree. His curveball and his placement make me think he's closer to Cole Hamels than to Shields.

5. Dustin Pedroia, 2B- Nobody expected Pedroia to be what he's become except for me of course. Not to gloat, but I saw this coming...Pedroia has always been a gamer. Pedroia pushes his 5'9" (really 5'6") stature well beyond the limit. He swings like he's aiming for the Citgo Sign--quite a few blocks from Fenway-- and he fields like he has a thing for brown face paint. He makes some of the best contact in the game, striking out a ridiculously low 52 times in 653 at bats in 2008 while hitting .326. In his short career, the energizer Bunny has walked more times than he has struck out--a feat that almost no batter today could dream of. Although his minor league OPS was .845, Pedroia was never viewed as anything more than a stopgap to Hanley Ramirez, and then when Hanley was traded, he was thought to be only a decent option to hold second base down for a couple of years until a big free agent name appeared on the market. Then, in spring training '07, the little fireball started heating up. His career stats through 1262 at bats include a .313 batting average, 140 rbis, 104 BB's 101 K's, 140 rbis, 209 runs and 320 hits. His base running ability is also one of the best in the AL, slyly stealing 27 bases in his career, vs. only 3 gun-downs. If he was a Yankee, he'd already be a "lock for the Hall of Fame" like Jeter was deemed at age 26...

6. Nomar Garciaparra, SS- Before Papi, D-Ped, Schilling, Papelbon and Youkilis were beloved, there was Nomar. Jeter's smile always got the press, but Nomar was the better hitter AND fielder in his heyday. In 3,968 at bats with the Red Sox Nomar, brother of the less famous Ramon, had 1282 hits and batted .323 with 178 bombs. His arm was stronger than Jeter's, and at times, his Range Factor was nearly a point higher--even with similar pitching. Tearing apart his wrist has cost him his chance at winning a World Series as a starter, but he will be in the Hall in a few years, so don't feel too bad for him.

7. Jason Varitek, C- After being drafted in the first round of the 1993 draft by the Twins, Varitek was traded to the Mariners and then with Derek Lowe to the Sox in July, 1997. Papelbon is the pitching staff's leader, but Varitek was the one-field General for the last decade. At the plate Varitek has always been solid, extremely close in yearly statistics to Mike Lieberthal. Although Posada has the better bat, Varitek had the better glove and the bigger balls. Not only did he slap A-Rod around in 2005, but he's won a few games off of Rivera. Through about 9 seasons worth of at bats (about 450 a season is a full season for a catcher) he had 654 ribbies and 161 homers. I never really bought the "you need a catcher that can call a good game" thing, because, in the end, the pitcher decides what he pitches. If a catcher can't hit or field like Wil Nieves, I don't think he has any place in the MLB--even with a nice rapport with his pitchers. I didn't believe it until Ausmus and Varitek, and what makes Varitek an All Star is the fact that he can call a great game and hit as well. Anyway, the point is both of their staff's love them, and both of these guys are gamers. A true leader, Varitek deserves his spot in the heart of ever Red Sox fan.

8. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF- In a few years Ellsbury will be near the top of this list. The kid is Reyes-fast, and stole 50 bases in '08--amazing considering his .336 OBP. He doesn't strike out too often, and he can take a walk well enough to slot in as a leadoff man for a long time. Even though his '08 numbers weren't as earth-shattering as those he put up in 2007, his minor league numbers suggest that he'll be an annual All-Star with more experience. In barely 1000 at bats in the minors Ellsbury hit .314 with 164 runs, a .390 OBP and 105 stolen bases. That averages out to about 90 runs and 60 stolen bases a season. His power has developed at an impressive pace since his call-up, and someday he will hit 15 homers to go along with his stellar peripherals.

9. Trot Nixon, RF- Nixon had a relatively short career due to injury. Still, he was an immense talent in the early days of his career and Nix managed to help the Sox to a World Series before he left Boston. In 3,285 at bats with the Red Sox, Nixon collected 912 hits and crushed 106 bombs while posting an OPS+ of about 120. After he left the Sox his career fell apart, but while he was with them he helped them win the World Series, and helped win them more than one playoff game as well.

10. Jed Lowrie, MI- Lowrie is a very good player, but no future MVP. Still, he can hit for a high average and field most of the positions on the diamond. His lousy range should tell you that third base-- or possibly second base-- is in his future. Wherever he plays he'll be solid. He had a .381 OBP in the minors and an .827 OPS. At some point Lowrie will hit about .300, post an OBP of about .370-.390 and slug about .450. He has a nice line drive swing, and could be a number 2 hitter if Pedroia gets injured, but more than likely he'll be towards the back of the lineup. Either way, Lowrie is a guy that every team wants. And, you never know, he could turn into Mike Aviles one day.