Sic Transit Gloria

For some reason, every year baseball analysts, reporters, and fantasy baseball "advisers," love to over-hype every single prospect that has had a few good major league appearances the year before. The following list is a number of players that don't seem to be able to live up to their lofty expetations--at least not yet. Many of these guys will be good or even All Star players, but many of them also will disappear into the minors or become career reserves/journeymen. To Lindy's Fantasy Baseball Analysts-- Remember, only about a quarter (a third if you're lucky) the the top 100 prospects will become good or All Star MLB players. Simply put, someone has gotta fail.

2. Kei Igawa, LHP, New York Yankees- The Yankees poor scouting in Japan really cost them some dough. Igawa is a downright BAD pitcher, even out of the bullpen. A guy that can't control a 85-88 mph fastball is not a guy that you want on your team. His slider isn't bad, but again, he can barely keep it in the strike zone, much less spot it. The Yankees took him off the 40-Man Roster for 2008, and still nobody has touched him on waivers. He wins the number one spot, because he has the worst pay-production ratio and promise of any of these guys. At least Bush and Patterson still have a shot at being decent. He's doing well in AAA, but don't let that--or his first name-- fool you, he's am absolutely abominable pitcher.

3. Matt Bush, RHP/INF, Toronto Blue Jays/Free Agent- Bush, the first pick of the 2004 draft, is the owner of the largest San Diego Padres signing bonus (for a draft pick) in team history. He has fantastic tools, and can throw 95, but his behavior issues and downright poor game-knowledge killed his career. His stats as a position player were horrid, and he never made it past A-Ball in his three active seasons. Now converted to a pitcher Bush has soon a glimpse of success (seven innings worth) but he then blew out his elbow, got suspended twice more (now three times in total in his career)) for drinking-related fighting/incidents, and now once again looks hopeless. I hope he does well, because he's not a bad guy, he just has problems with stress and booze. One day he could come up as a Jose Veras type pitcher, but certainly won't ever be a star Short Stop.

4. Bryan Bullington, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates- Bullington was one of the more puzzling no.1 picks of the recent decade. The Pirates passed up Prince Fielder, Matt Cain, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Francouer for a guy that has done absolutely nothing noticeable in the minors or majors.

5. Alex Escobar, OF, Free Agent- Escobar's failure was really just bad luck. The kid has always had the tools to be Ken Griffey Jr, but a slew of shoulder and knee injuries have ruined his promise. The Mets organization were convinced that they had a Carlos Beltran on their hands, but now turning 31, Escobar has finally lost the confidence of every team in the league. His tools are still there, but as it stands, he probably won't ever be anything more than a MiLB journeyman.

6. Sean Burroughs, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays/Free Agent- Drafted 9th, in the first round of the 1998 Amateur draft, Burroughs looked to be a star. His batting average has always been decent, but his power completely dissapeared once he started playing professionally. His .358 slugging percentage in professional ball just plain isn't going to get it done--especially for a third basemen. He's not exactly a AAAA player either. His slugging percentage in the minors was still only .437, and even though he had a strong arm and good range, his career fielding percentage was just 93.8%. He's finally done, but I personally think he could still serve as a solid, low-end bench INF in the MLB. Hell, if Wil Nieves is still getting job offers than why shouldn't Sean Burroughs.


7. Timo Perez, CF, Detroit Tigers/Free Agent- Every Met fan remember's "Timo Time" running across the Shea scoreboard. Unfortunately for Timo, however, his time never came. Like Gabe Kapler, Timo is a perfect example of a AAAA player. His career MiLB numbers--a .322 batting average and an .873 OPS-- are sexy, no doubt, but his ability to play in the MLB is obviously lacking. T.P. are perfect initials for Timo, as he's an asswhipe.

8. Sidney Ponson, SP, Kansas City Royals- Ugh, the fatman really sucks. He had sooo much promise but his body/weight problems have finally made him a journeyman/veteran spot starter.I'm not going to lie, I was on Ponson's bandwagon in 2002/2003 when he got it together and started pitching like an ace. But he then proceeded to gain about 20 pounds of fat and put up a league leading 265 hits and 127 earned runs in 2004. Since then he has been below average on every one of his stops around the US. The classic "I already have my money so why should I work hard?."


9. Corey Patterson, CF, Washington Nationals- Patterson used to be the Cubbies favorite baby bear. Drafted 3rd overall in 1998, Patterson has had SOME MLB success, but is finally looking like he's toast. He's awful at getting on base (.291 career OBP) and his career .407 SLG doesn't exactly justify this weakness. He is a victim of WTP. He does have some speed, and can get hot with the bat, but seriously guys, do you think this guy will ever be a 20-20 player again? He'll probably never even be a regular again.


10. Eric Duncan, 1B, New York Yankees- It was either Duncan or Andy Marte here, and I honestly think Duncan is more doomed than Marte--at least Marte could be a Wilson Betemit some day. Eric Duncan was the cream of the Yankees crop before their recent wave of high powered prospects. Every "real" fan of the Yankees knows this guy, and although he didn't have the hype that Drew Henson did, he was highly touted by the organization's management. Now, after 6 seasons in the minors, his career numbers look pretty lousy for a crappy-fielding first baseman. A .247 batting average and his .416 slugging percentage are pretty much the best stats out of his career MiLB stat- line...Ouch.


11. Carlos Gomez, CF, Minnesota Twins- Sure, the kid is very young--going on 24-- but as of right now, he looks like a future, decent backup rather than a star player. Gomez's numbers last year were aweful, and they downright hurt the Twins. 614 plate appearances of .296 OBP, and .360 SLG, baseball is unacceptable for an outfielder...Even a rookie. He's shown know improvement for 2009, and is currently sporting a stomach-churning, .529 OPS. He has zero plate discipline, has never hit 10 homers or hit .300 at any level and isn't exactly a whiz on defense either. Does this sound like a future star to you? It doesn't even sound anything close to a future leadoff man to me...Much less an All Star. Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and some other stiff for Johan Santana. Fair.

12. Daniel Cabrera, SP, Washington Nationals- Now entering his 6th season in the MLB, and turning 28 in May, it's finally obvious that Cabrera will never be Josh Beckett. The guy's control is horrible, and he isn't a winner. He gives up with men on base, and even though the Orioles weren't great, they still gave him some support. His 18 Losses in 2007 should have been enough for the Orioles to get rid of him, but to their credit they stomached it for one more season. In his career he has put up more walks (486) than strike outs (480)--and that should be enough to convince you that he's garbage. He may become a decent reliever, but nothing more than a Brian Bruney or Kyle Farnsworth if that ever happens.


Takes the Cake...

1. Drew Henson, 3B, New York Yankees- Because the Yankees tend to have the most hyped and often over-hyped prospects in the game, they also tend to have the biggest busts. Drew Henson is likely the loudest bust of the past decade. He ended his minor league career with a fielding percentage a hair above .900, and had an OPS of just .728. He did manage to set a record for strikeouts (at the time) in the International League with 151, with less than a full season's worth of at bats. He quickly switched to football, after costing the Yankees millions. He faired no better, and finally retired in 2008. Nice guy, great athlete, simply couldn't put it together professionally.

Fantasy Baseball Gems, Bargains, and Busts

Try to Grab

1. Matt Wieters C- A clone of Joe Mauer. Fantastic batter, is being handed the starting job in Baltimore and should be there for years to come. Draft him in your first minor league round, or trade major league picks to get the first pick.

2. Angel Salome C- After that leg injury that Jason Kendall sustained, he went from possible Hall-of-Famer to an awful batter. His only benefit is that he doesn't strike out, and somehow played good defense in 2008 after two years of some of the worst in the league. Angel Salome will take his job soon enough, and then you have a catcher that won a batting title at AA...

3. Adrian Cardenas 2B- A very decent, no name second baseman. If Trey Hillman has any sense whatsoever, and I know that he does, he will start Cardenas at second in 2009 and watch him blossom into Freddy Sanchez.

4. Erick Aybar SS- A great bargain as a low end starter or a high end back up. At a thin position he can provide a .300 batting average, 20 sb's and some runs.

5. Clayton Kershaw SP- Its no secret that this guy is the next Peavy, yet he still manages to slip beyond the 3rd or 4th round in most leagues. Grab him now, and watch him dominate the weak hitting NL West.

6. Travis Buck DH/OF- After post concussion syndrome, Buck had a slow recovery in 2009 but still managed to heat up in September. For a disappointing year, Buck was on pace for 25-3o home runs. He's good. He can hit for average and for power. With Matt Holliday in the lineup he'll get some fastballs too.

7. Jose Lopez 2B- At a thin position, a guy that doesn't strike out, hits at about .300 and cranks a Jeterly number of home runs is incredibly valuable. You can probably swipe him in the middle rounds.

8. John Danks SP- This guy has quickly become an elite starting pitcher and he's still young. If you need a frontline starter at a lower than 1st-3rd round price, he's your guy.

9. Chris Duncan OF- Everyone has forgotten about Duncan after two injury plagued seasons. Believe me when I say Duncan still has power! He still is capable of putting up Thome-like numbers, and he has a hold on the starting LF spot in St. Louis.

10. Daniel Murphy 2B/OF- The Mets have grown tired of Luis Castillo's sucking, and he's certainly not getting any faster, or better at making contact. They've all but handed Murphy the job on a silver platter-- he should do well for a guy that'll go undrafted in most leagues.

11. Elijah Dukes OF- Elijah is a criminal, and isn't the most likeable ballplayer out there. However, even playing for the Nationals, Dukes could easily put up 20-20 numbers and be a number 1 or 2 outfielder.

12. Brent Lillibridge SS- Okay, Lillibridge is a stretch, but if you're without a SS or if you're looking for a backup, Lillibridge is a solid option. In deeper leagues, a young David Eckstein for absolutely no cost is at least helpful.

13. Dana Eveland SP- Eveland finally came into his own last year with the Athletics. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but with a better offense behind him in 2009, 15 wins and a low 4.00 ERA is a very reasonable expectation. He'll be cheap.

14. Jason Werth OF- Although he was one of the primary pieces that led the Phillies to a championship, Werth has gone relatively unnoticed by most non-Philly fans. 20-25 hr's and 15-20 sb's is definitely a reasonable expectation for Werth.

15. J.R. Towles C- Deemed Houston's future a year ago, Towles failed miserably in the bigs hitting well below the "Mendoza Line". Still, Towles has the potential to hit 20 homers and bat near .300. Once again, the starting job will be his to lose. Because of his awful numbers in 2008, he'll be a cheap pick-up.

16. Howie Kendrick- Already possessing a batting title from his days in the minor leagues, Kendrick may very well earn one in the majors some day. Although he NEVER walks, he makes a lot of contact and has the potential to hit .330 and steal 20 bases.

17. Carlos Gonzalez- The friendly Coors Field will bolster Gonzalez's power numbers. He's a very good prospect, will be competing for the a starting OF spot in the spring and has the potential to be a top 20 OF.

18. Sean Rodriguez INF- An under-the-radar A-Rod (with less contact ability) Rodriguez was overshadowed by Brandon Wood for most of his prospect-career. His mammoth power at SS/2B make him an extremely intriguing player to stash on your bench. Be ready for the day he takes over a starting job in the Angel's infield.

19. Brandon Jones OF- Jones will be making a sincere push for a starting OF job in Atlanta. A tools guy without a glaring strength, Jones looks like a very solid player. Adam Jones type numbers are very possible.

20. Adam Laroche 1B- This guy gets a whole lot of lip from the press for absolutely no reason. Always expected to be a disappointment, Laroche has consistently proved his critics wrong. With a Beer League lineup around him Laroche still puts up a good batting average, 25 homeruns and 80 rbi's yearly.


Stay Away From

1. Carlos Gomez- After being marked as the Santana-trade-guy this burner has a lot of hype surrounding him, but a leadoff hitter that strikes out 150 times a season has a scary (bad scary) future if he doesn't develop some patience.

2. Manny Ramirez- If you're in a keeper league don't be fooled by Ramirez's insane numbers in 2008. Ramirez was in his contract year, and knew that if he stepped it up and shut up he'd get a good contract. He's old and lazy--making him very risky.

3. Dan Uggla- Although second is a thin position, Uggla is a very risky pick. His strikeout numbers are disturbing, his batting average makes Cesar Izturis look decent, and his slumps kill fantasy teams. After a good first half, Uggla made 3 errors in the All Star game and then proceeded to slump badly in the second half. Don't trust him.

4. Carlos Delgado 1B- This guy was an automatic out with men on base for most of his career with the Mets. Sure, last year he put up good numbers recently, but one can only wonder about his motivation. A cleanup hitter who bats .200 (or below) with men on base is definitely a cleanup hitter you should stay away from.

5. Bobby Abreu- Away from the friendly right field wall at Yankee stadium, and without being sandwiched between Jeter and Arod, Abreu's future doesn't look too promising. 100 rbi's? Never again. 20 HR's? No way.

6. Alexi Casilla- Casilla was solid in 2008. Still, he played well beyond his potential and probably won't match his numbers from 2008 in 2009. If you can get him for cheap, then he's not a bad pickup.

7. A.J. Burnett- This guy is abominable. He takes weeks, even months off all to often and doesn't seem to care about pitching when he's not in a contract year. He'll be pitching for the Yankees, true, but will he actually pitch all that much?

8. Ryan Church- Post concussion syndrome has scrambled Church's brains. He's never been much more than a very good platoon player, and likely won't be anything special next year.

9. Ian Kennedy- Do I really need to explain why you should stay away from Kennedy? He has Little League stuff, poor control and resembles Kei Igawa more than Mike Mussina. He won't be in the rotation for 2009 and doesn't have the stuff to be a reliever. Even if he was either, hitters would use him for batting practice. On top of his lousy AAAA stuff, he's also an extremely arrogant and unlikeable guy.

10. Chris Young, OF- He and Reynolds are strikeout machines without too much upside left. Although he does have good power, his contact ability is poor and his strikeouts will kill his productivity.

11. Austin Jackson- Overhyped, overrated-- pick a label. Jackson has potential, especially on defense, however the savior he's projected to be is highly unlikely.

12. Fernando Martinez- Sure he's young, but he's not worth a first round MiLB pick while guys like Alvarez, Wieters, Snider, Cahill, LaPorta, Rasmus, Parker and Carrasco are around. He'll be a mark Kotsay (prior to the back problems).

13. Ike Davis- It may be too early to really tell what Davis is going to turn into, but so far the switch from metal bat to wooden stick has completely sapped Davis' homerun. A potato masher in college, Davis didn't hit a single homerun in nearly 250 at bats in low A ball last year. Big guys who can't run and can't drive the ball usually don't last long in the minor leagues. No matter what Baseball America says, disagree with them-- he is garbage.

14. Jason Varitek- Varitek, affectionately called "'Tek" by his teammates has been an aweful catcher for the Red Sox over the last two seasons. Why? Its no mystery, hes getting old, and getting old and playing catcher don't mix. He still gets the "he may not hit but he calls a good game and leads the team treatment" but he REALLY doesn't hit except for a few meaningless homeruns here or there. His glove and his ability to "call a game" still don't make up for his poor bat. He has really never been anything special on the defensive side of the plate. Deep down, he really can't be that shocked that the Red Sox aren't jumping to re-sign him. Call it a career already, 'Tek.