Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Top 200 MLB Prospects for 2010: 51-100

2010 Top Prospects 1-50 Are Below this Post.

Click on the first Image below to see 2010 Top Prospects 51-79

Click on the below image to see 2010 Top Prospects 79-100

51-60. Most of the players listed in this range profile better as future MLB regulars than super stars. Donavan Tate doesn't fit this description. The Padres' third overall pick of the 2009 Amateur Draft was a very intelligent one. Tate has the speed and athletic prowess to be a Gold Glove centerfielder, and steal 30-40 bases annually. Tate has bat that could produce a .300 average some day, but more importantly 30-40 homers ("Taters") in his prime. Tate looks like he could be a future Grady Sizemore. Eric Hosmer had Lasic surgery this off-season and his hoping (along with the Royals management that signed him to the highest bonus in team history) that his bat will return for 2010. Hosmer has the power potential of Mark Teixeira, but needs considerable development. The Tigers' 2007 5th round pick, lefty Casey Crosby returned from Tommy John surgery throwing a 93-98 mph fastball and posted a 2.41 era with 117 k's through 104 innings in the Midwest League. His control needs more refining. Jake Arrieta spots his 91-95 mph heat well but has yet to develop a second MLB plus pitch, and hasn't shown an MLB approach to pitching. Jaff Decker, the 5'10" chubby left fielder has a sweet swing that could lead him to a .300 average in the MLB some day. However, is well below average speed, soft body and short stature keep scouts wary. The Tigers' Jake Turner is just 18, but has advanced breaking stuff and a fastball that could sit in the mid 90s with a few years of growth and development. Brett Lawrie the highest MLB draft pick (15th in '08) out of Canada in history, was moved from catcher to second base in 2009 and showed a glove that could be MLB average or slightly better some day. His strong hands/forearms give him superior bat control and his patient approach is beyond his years. With work he could develop in to an .800 MLB OPS rather easily. The Reds' Todd Frazier is still without a position . His bat isn't elite but he has the ability to stroke a near .300 average with 20 homers and 40 doubles in his MLB prime. He has the arm for third base, and the footwork for second but could end up being a Chase Headley in left field. Alex White the Indians' 2009 pick out of UNC has a plus-plus splitter and a riding fastball that sits in the 90-93 range (toping out at 95). His control needs work, and developing a change or improving his slider needs to happen before he can be considered a top pitching prospect. Cubs' shortstop Starlin Castro was ranked as the Cubs' top prospect in Baseball America's 2010 organizational rankings. At just 19 years old Castro made the 2009 MLB Futures game and was promoted to the Southern League by mid-season. Castro hit a combined .300, stole 28 bases and ripped 32 XBH's in 469 at bats. And although he did make 39 errors playing short, he was still considered the top fielding shortstop in the Florida State and Southern Leagues. His advocates consider him to be a future Tony Fernandez, with some even comparing his abilities to Derek Jeter.

61-70. Stanford alumnus, and Astros catching prospect Jason Castro doesn't have a top-tier ceiling, but his approach, intelligence and dedication have made him one of the top catching prospects in the game. In his first full season in the minors, Castro posted a .300 average and an .826 OPS between the California and Texas Leagues. He also threw out 45% of base stealers. Mets shortstop Wilmer Flores and Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas both had forgettable 2009 seasons after being heralded as five star prospects by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Both players will probably play an average to above average 3rd base in the future, and the younger Wilmer Flores has the better shot of becoming a big league regular at this point. Moustakas has been too aggressive at the plate and hasn't developed opposite field power yet-- if he can refine his approach he could still be an above average MLB hitter. Indians prospect Jason Knapp has struggled with shoulder problems lately, and this makes the trade for Cliff Lee look even better for the Phillies. If he can stay healthy however, the 6'5" Knapp could become an MLB ace or closer with his 94-98 mph fastball and hard slider. His control, delivery and secondary stuff all need work, and at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to work on them. Kyle Gibson was a steal for the Twins in the 2009 draft, falling into their laps because of a forearm stress fracture. Gibson's slider, changeup and control are all MLB plus, and his fastball can reach 92-93 mph often. Despite the injury, Gibson has the ability to reach the MLB quickly. Ike Davis finally started hitting homeruns in 2009 and then proceeded tear apart the Eastern League over the summer. Davis posted a .951 OPS with Binghampton and had 13 homers and 14 doubles in just 207 at bats. He strikes out a bit much, but as he adds muscle to his lean 6'5" frame, he could develop in to an impact MLB bat as well as a Gold Glove winner at first. Austin Jackson hit .300 with Scranton (AAA) in 2009 but hit just 4 home runs and struck out 123 tims (vs. just 40 walks) in 504 at bats. Jackson did however hit 9 triples, steal 24 bases and continue to develop toward one of the best defensive centerfielders in the minors. His athleticism keep him on this list, but his poor plate discipline, lack of power and less-than-elite speed keep his ceiling to MLB average. Splitting the season bewteen the Midwest and California Leagues, Padres' 3rd baseman James Darnell posted a ridiculous .960 OPS, hitting .311 and walloping 20 home runs, 35 doubles and four triples in just 457 at bats. Darnell is also lauded for his plate discipline, walking 87 times (vs. 89 k's) in '09. Despite his strong arm and plus range, Darnell is a poor fielder and needs to improve his hands considerably or he will end up as a corner outfielder. Drew Storen was considered by most to be an affordable, "safety pick" by the Nationals in the 2009 draft, but ended up becoming a top prospect by summers end after a dominating performance in the Eastern and Carolina Leagues. Storen's slider is an MLB plus-plus pitch, while his 93 MPH fastball and control are plus as well. The Nationals need bullpen help, and Storen will provide that help in 2010--maybe even becoming their closer. Dodgers shortstop prospect Dee Gordon, son of Tom "Flash" Gordon, has top tier speed and range, but his power, plate discipline and hands need work. If he can develop enough Gordon could be an above-average fielder, solid hitter and could steal 40-50 rather easily in the MLB.

71-80. The Kansas City Royals managed to get one of the 2009 draft's biggest steals by drafting Will Myers--a first round talent-- in the 3rd round. After signing, the young catcher quickly rewarded the Royals and posted a 1.106 OPS in 96 plate appearances in Rookie Ball. Myers has the potential to annually hit above .300 and slug above .500 in the MLB, and his cannon arm could make him a top notch catcher or third baseman. Angels' Trevor Reckling scores points for being left handed, otherwise he might not make the top 100. Reckling's fastball tops out at 91 and sits 87-90. His curveball has plus to plus-plus movement and his change is plus as well, making him very intriguing, but he only controls his fastball well. Tyler Clippard from the left side. Although Carlos Carrasco has ace potential with a plus-plus change and a fastball that reaches the mid-nineties regularly, his problems with homeruns and his knack for unraveling quickly have tarnished his prospect status. Matt Dominguez has yet to show much more than a plus glove with (gold glove potential), but Marlins' management believes he could be their new Mike Lowell by 2012. The big lefty, Aaron Poreda has a mid to high nineties fastball that helped him become the White Sox top Prospect in 2009. Now with the Padres, Poreda has the chance to make an impact quickly. His average breaking stuff, lack of a decent changeup and lackluster control suggest Poreda needs further seasoning however. The young Texan, Shelby Miller, was the Cardinals' first round draft pick in 2009 and has the best fastball of any of the 2009 Draft's high school pitchers. Miller's fastball has good movement and reaches 94 mph consistently. His curveball should be plus as well with some work. Miller is durable and athletic. At just 5'9" (really 5'7"), Twins Prospect Ben Revere, was considered a colossal stretch for the first round in 2007--the Twins didn't agree and picked him 28th. Revere quickly silenced his doubters and led the minors in batting (.379) in 2008. Revere features plus to plus-plus speed and rarely strikes out, but his lack of power (just 3 home runs in 1000 MiLB at bats) and weak arm make him a future Juan Pierre at best. Red Sox shortstopJose Iglesias was plucked out of the 2009 International FA market and has drawn numerous comparisons to Orlando Cabrera. His glove has the chance to be MLB plus-plus, but his bat lags well behind. The Marlins' young lefty Chad James has the best secondary pitch of any of his high school counterparts in the 2009 draft, with an advanced changeup. The pitch apparently has the ceiling of one of the best in the MLB, and because James could be hitting 93-94 mph on the radar gun in a few years, he could move quickly toward top prospect status. Josh Reddick has become a top prospect with his cannon arm, plus bat and surprising power. Reddick could be a gold glove outfielder one day, and with some added muscle could hit 25 MLB home runs as well. A Shawn Green comparison is a

81-90. Royals pitchers Tim Melville and Danny Duffy are two very different-- yet equally intriguing--young pitchers. Melville has the size and stuff, while Duffy has the craftiness and the handedness. A's shortstopGrant Green fell from a possible number 2 pick going in to 2009, all the way to the Athletics. Green has bat and approach to hit .300 and get on base near 38% of the time in the MLB, and with better footwork could win a Gold Glove at short. His strong arm is impressive. Lars Anderson fell apart in 2009 and lost 250 points in OPS. His size and batting potential still make him someone to keep an eye on. Junichi Tazawa has an impressive array of breaking pitches between his slider, curve and forkball. His control is another plus and his fastball (although straight) reaches 93-94 on occasion. He tires quickly however and needs seasoning in the minors. Brad Lincoln rebounded from surgery in 2009 and showed that his slider could still be an MLB plus pitch. Jake McGee hopes that he too can recover from surgery after losing most of 2009 to TJ surgery. Being a lefty with a 95 mph fastball and nasty breaking stuff make McGee a lock to get a look in the majors. His control issues and recent arm injury suggest alotting him to the bullpen however. Daniel Hudson is a pitcher I want to see succeed, but his stuff is still questionable. Hudson's changeup is plus, but he doesn't feature a reliable slider, and although his fastball has reached 93 on occasion he controls it better in the 87-90 range. Ryan Kalish is a very solid all-around player with a good approach, plus speed, good baserunning and a good bat. However, his arm strength is below average, his power won't transfer to the MLB and his speed isn't top-tier. Dodgers' prospect Scott Elbert has fallen from possible Ace starter to future MLB set-up man because of injuries and control issues. Still, being a lefty, Elbert's 90-95 mph fastball and nasty curveball ensure that he'll have success in some capacity at the MLB level. I still think he can be a very good starer.

91-100. Orioles third base prospect, Josh Bell, still insists remaining a switch hitter, even with such abominable platoon splits. Bell has plus power potential however, and he could end up being a solid third baseman in the MLB. Brad Holt may be an overrated Mets prospect, but he still possesses the breaking stuff to become a middle-to-backend starter on the Mets. Grant Desme, Oakland Athletics outfield prospect and shoulder surgery survivor tore apart the Midwest and California Leagues in 2009, bashing 31 homers, 31 doubles and 6 triples in 468 at bats. Then, in the Arizona Fall League, Desme was awarded the 2009 Joe Black MVP Award after leading the league in homers (11) and total bases (72). To go with his bat, Grant shows good instincts on the basepaths, stealing 40 bases in 2009. He doesn't have the speed to steal 40 in the MLB, but his above-average wheels and his saavy base running could heist 20 annually. The only part of his game that is suspect, is his contact--Desme struck out 148 times in 3/4 of a season in A-ball. Simon Castro has a fastball that sits in the 91-94 mph range and has a curve that is developing in to a plus MLB pitch. He lacks a usable changeup at this point. Jay Jackson is a hard thrower in the Cubs organization and often reachs 94-95 with his fastball. He has a good curve/slider combo as well, but still lacks a passable changeup and shows subpar control. The Dodgers' 2008 first round pick, Ethan Martin, has a fastball that sits in the 93-97 mpg range and a recently-developed, nasty power-curve. His control is well below average at this point, and his delivery and changeup both need years of refining. Italian third baseman Alex Liddi wasn't a prospect before his sensational 2009 performance in the California League. His 1.005 OPS led the League, and his 6'4" frame (although thin) suggest his numbers are more than a product of dry air. Carlos Triunfel missed most of 2009 due to injury, and at just 18 years old, the young infielder is still a mystery projection-wise. His bat could be MLB plus, but his average MLB speed, and his below-average power likely won't be useful anywhere but in the middle infield. Brandon Allen needs serious improvement in his plate discipline before he can be a successful MLB first baseman, but his size, power potential and recent success make him a candidate to be an MLB impact player for 2010. Brett Jackson was the 31st overall pick of the 2009 draft, but has the tools of a top 10 pick. Jackson has plus speed, plus power potential and could win a Gold Glove in the MLB. His strikeouts are his only question mark thus far.

Dropped off the Top 100:

Outfielder Andrew Lambo has shown little promise after being touted as having "light-tower power" potential by Baseball America in 2008. With a better approach, Lambo could still be an impressive hitter, although his poor defense, below average speed and novice plate discipline could keep his ceiling to fourth outfielder.


Callis, Jim, Will Lingo, and Jim Shonerd. "Top Prospects by League." Baseball America Prospect Rankings. Baseball America, 1 Oct. 2010. Web. 1 Nov. 2010. .

Jaffe, Jay, Joe Sheehan, and Will Caroll. "PECOTA Card." Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. Web.

SABR Minor Leagues Database, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith. "Baseball Reference." Minor League Baseball History- Baseball-Reference.com. Sports Reference LLC. Web.

1 comment:

  1. i think hudson should be higher..he dominated at every level but i agree with the majority of your rankings as someone who follows baseball closely


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