The Over/Under- Once Overrated Prospects That Are Now Underrated

This happens a lot. There's tons of a hype for an unproven prospect and then he slips up. After he "slips" suddenly he falls back into the abyss of minor league mediocrity- no press, no scouts no chance. Some of the time these prospects are totally toast but other times they had a hiccup and are now top prospects again.

1. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals (B+)- Coming out of college Detwiler had high expectations and rightly so--a left that throws 97-100 and wields a roger Clemens' splitter is pretty mouthwatering for most MLB teams. Then reality hit, the kid needs a lot of work before he can make it big. His mechanics were said to be his primary problem, of course not his stuff. His stiff-legged motion put too much pressure on his shoulder, tired him quickly and let the ball fly out of the strike zone way too often. His 4.68 ERA in A ball was certainly not what was expected by the Nats. But is Jordan Zimmerman really the best Nats' prospect? Even over this fireballer? No way. Dewiler went from tops to a mid-range prospect overnight, slipping fairly deep in fantasy drafts. THE KID THROWS 100 MPH WITH HIS LEFT HAND WHAT ARE YOU THINKING!? Detwiler will be in the bigs AGAIN in to time, maybe as a closer (I prefer him there) or a frontline starter. To be a start though he needs to add something offspeed to his 2 pitch repertoire although both of the pitches are plus-plus.

2. Justin "J.R." Towles, C, Houston Astros (B)- Unfortunately his name isn't as fun as I once thought (I thought it was Towels). Instead its pronounced "Tolls." Towles was a huge prospect for the Astros and was handed the starting job in Houston before last season. His performance was dismal and after posting an 864 OPS in the minors, and outside of a few hiccups routinely around 900 actually, he posted an OPS well below 700 batting below the Mendoza line. For this he's been all but forgotten by anyone and everyone but the Astros. The fantasy community has abandoned him and in my three leagues I picked him up off waivers (eve in the 20 team 40 player-roster leagues). Listen, he was disappointing last year but so is Justin Upton, Steven Drew was in his first year, Mauer was nothing to write home about and neither was Reyes. Simply put most prospects don't exactly start off on fire--it took Zach Greinke near half a decade to put it together. If Towles does what he's supposed to his ceiling will be 20 homers and .300 batting average. For now he'll probably hit about .280 and crack about 15 homers.

3. Kosuke Fukudome, CF/RF, Cubs (C+/B-)- Okay, we saw Fukudome play very well in the first half--walking a ton, making good contact and playing well in the outfield. If he can return to those numbers he can be a Kevin Youkilis--pre the power increase-- in the outfield. His second half last year was SOO BAD that he lost his job to Milton Bradley and maybe even Hoffpauir. Don't forget the guy though, he doesn't have a huge ceiling but he does have a potential to be a Mark Teahen with a good OBP-- .280-.290, 12-15 homers, 10-15 stolen bases and 80-100 runs.

4. Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees, (B/B+)- Okay, Hughes pitched like a D- pitcher overall last year but when he was healthy he was B+. Its easy to forget that in 2007 he nearly threw a no hitter in his first-call up. He has an intense knuckle curve, as good as Mike Mussina's, a 91-94 mph fastball he places very well that usually sits around 92 and a good change and a cutter he's working on. The problem with Hughes has always been his health. He has a glass jaw and even cracked a rib, an injury only my grandmother could get, while pitching. If he can get to 150 innings or even 180 he could be a fantastic starter. Dan Haren and Cole Hamels comparisons may be asking too much but I think he's definitely in the realm of a Josh Johnson.

5. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees, (C+/B-)- Kennedy has a low ceiling and if you've been reading my blog you've probably noticed I'm not his biggest fan. His stuff isn't great. He throws a 86-90 4-seamer, a decent 12-6 curve that he has no control over and a plus-plus Vulcan change. His placement was supposed to be his best weapon but he walked 26 guys in 39 innings last year. If he can get 1 more pitch or at least get some control over his curve he could be a young El Duque, or even John Lannan. He struck out batter after batter in the minors with that awesome change, but it doesn't look like he'll ever get more than 6k's per 9 in the majors. Still, a C+/B- fifth starter is always a hot commodity, even for the Yankees, the team that had Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Dan Giese starting for much of the year.

6. Andrew Brackman, RHP, New York Yankees, (B)- Man, the Yankees have a lot of dissapointments...Brackman would've went in the top ten in the '07 draft but with Scott Boras as his agent he slipped all the way to the Yankees. The 6'8" (he claims 6'9") hurler throws a 94-97 four seamer that has touched 99 as well as a 91-93 2 seamer with a lot of sink. He also featuers a 82-84 mph change, and a plus knuckle curve that has a lot of movement but is also hard for him to control. The kid got Tommy John surgery which was already expected so whats the problem? Well he has very little experience in baseball and spent a lot of his time shooting hoops for NC State. Still with stuff like that he may very well end up in the Yank's rotation or even River's ayre if Robertson and Melancon can't secure the role.

7. Chris Nelson, SS, Colorado Rockies, (B-)- Nelson broke his hamat bone in 2008 and as a result had a very down year hitting .237 and had a .670 OPS. The kid has a ton of power for a shortstop, bopping .503 and then .508 between his time in the Rookie League at 18 and A+. An eighteen year old that mashes a .670 OPS is a prize. He's been ranked as high as 26 by baseball America and as a youngin he still has plenty of potential to burn. Look for him to move to second/centerfield to remedy the whole Tulowitzki blocking him problem.

8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies, (A)- We were just talking about the guy and here he is. Tulo is an incredibly talent, especially at short stop but he is prone to injury and prolonged slumps. We saw in 2007 a future star--a guy that plays Ozzie Smith defense (a range factor well over 5.00) and has the potential to his .300 and 30-35 homers. In his first full season with Colorado he had an 838 OPS, walked 57 times and hit 24 dingers in 155 games. He's sick nasty and look for his OPS to be near 900 as long as he stays healthy and matures. If and when he reaches his potential he'll be the best all around shortsop in both leagues (beating out Hanley with his super superb defense). Don't ever forget about this guy--you probably already have--BUT DO NOT

9. Troy Patton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, (B-/B)- Out of highschool Patton was looked at as a future Mike Mussina/ace. Houston traded him and his scrapped arm to the Orioles, kind of a dirty move in hindsight, for Miguel Tejada. As soon as Patton got to Baltimore his arm nearly fell off and the poor guy needed serious should surgery.He's posted some awesome numbers in the minors. He had a 2.94 ERA and 102 k's in 101 innings pitched in single A, and then a 3.00 ERA with 69 K's in another 100 ip in AA. He strikeouts have dipped somewhat, and will probably level off around a Jeremy Sowers rate now that his arm has been converted to a Frankensteinian limb. Actually, Sowers is the best comparison I can think of. A back of the rotation for most teams but probably a 3 for the Orioles. A 4.00-4.40 ERA, 180 innigs, and 100 K's sounds like his peak.

10. Jake McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, (B+)- Poor McGee. Blah blah blah, David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson are the future of the Rays blah blah blah--that's all McGee hears these days. The truth his McGee is just as good as price and BETTER than both Davis and Hellickson. A strikeout machine, leading AA in 2006, and a left-hander with good but not great mechanics McGee is a serious blue chip. He needed TJ surgery in 2008 and won't be back until 2009 but when he does make the majors you'll enjoy watching his Barry Zito curveball and his slider-like 91-95 mph fastball. To give you an idea of how insane McGee's stuff is, here's his line from 2006 in A ball- 134 ip, 3.04 ERA, 101 hits, and 171 yes, that's 171 strikeouts. He posted almost identical numbers in AA the next year. He has the potential to be a superb pitcher, not Tim Lincecum but certainly Scott Kazmir or even a Cole Hamels if every single thing goes his way.