Sunday, February 1, 2009

Good but not Good Enough...Yet?

Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates- Walker's star has faded somewhat since he was moved from catcher to third. The fantastic athlete with the fantastic arm hasn't reached his very high potential yet. Somewhat of an underachiever his stats are average with a career OPS of .746, but like Ka'aihue he could break out any day now.

Daniel Valencia, 3B, Minnesota Twins- Valencia is another one of those mid-range prospects in the Twins system--they seem to be full of them but they're making it work--just look at their pitching rotation for god's sake. Valencia just missed my top 100, but his stats are still very good. In his career Valencia has slugged '485, and has slugged over .500 three times--only two hiccups bring his numbers down. The kid also knows how to get on base, he usually walks a good amount, but those numbers fell at AA--which isn't out of the ordinary. What keeps him out of the top 100 is his strikeouts. In only 472 ab's in rookie ball, he had 102 strikeouts! Red flags are going up faster than on the race track if he can't make contact against such inexperienced pitchers.



Aaron Hicks,
CF, Minnesota Twins- Hicks, like Hosmer, is another kid I have yet to see in action--so I can't provide a very deep analysis. Just judging by his stats, and Baseball America deeming him the best athlete in the Twins' minor league system he's definitely a guy that would be in my top 50. He does two things that are rare among ball players, especially young ones: he takes a walk with the best of 'em and had a .409 OBP for the Gulf Coast Twins. On top of that he mixes his good bat with some speed. He's extremely young and won't be twenty until this October so he could grow and became awesome, or get grow and became lousy. It looks like the former, so watch him.



Andrew Lambo, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers- Lambo has awful character--he's a real asshole to be honest but he's a decent hitter. He was drafted as a center fielder out of Los Angeles' Newberry Park High School, but he's far too slow to stay there so he was moved to 1B. Lambo has been inconsistent in his professional career-- mashing a .959 OPS in the Dodger's rookie ball club but then at single A his OPS dropped 150 points. The good news is he finished the year very well with AA Jacksonville with an OPS 1.171 in 36 at bats in eight games. First base is always a hard one to judge because the players aren't usually very athletic but if Doug Mientkewicz still gets a contract then Lambo definitely has a chance to play in the MLB.

Eric Hosmer
, 1B, Kansas City Royals- I did pledge to never rate a player I've never seen or even heard about and Hosmer is one of those players. His stats say that he should be rated in the top 50 to the top 20 range, so he's clearly very good.

Eric Young jr., 2B/CF, Colorado Rockies- A fellow fantasy leaguer made the argument that Young should be in the top 100. Although he made a good case, Young simply doesn't have the ceiling or numbers that a top 100 prospect has and won't compare to his dad outside of speed. Young has never hit .300 but in a season in single A he struck out over 100 times--something very scary for a lead off hitter facing singe A pitching. His defense is so bad that he made Chuck Knoblauch look like Ray Sanchez. The kid made 27 errors in 2/3 of a season in 2006 which is absolutely unacceptable. He didn't improve in 2007 and made another 25 so his coaches got tired of him and moved him to Center Fielder-- this is really what kills his ranking. Like Brett Gardner, he won't be collecting a .400 OBP against MLB pitching if he still doesn't break a .400 slugging percentage or doesn't make great contact, so that OBP will definitely drop as he goes up each level. His speed is probably one of the best in the minors or even the majors, so he could turn into a very good pinch runner or a Brett Gardner type of 4th outfielder.

Trevor Crowe, CF, Cleveland Indians- The soon to be twenty six year old Crowe was curiously rated by Baseball America as one of the top Indians' prospects going in to 2008. The kid has a .275 career batting average and a low .755 OPS, especially for an outfielder. He's gotten better at his defense every year, and has turned in to a good center fielder and a plus left fielder. If Melky Cabrera got a shot then so should Crowe. He's still a speedy base runner as well.

Tyler Colvin, Chicago Cubs, OF- Colvin, the former first round prospect, has been a big disappointment for the Cubs. Once thought to be a 20-20 guy, his star has faded as his patience faded as well. In his 3 years in professional ball hes struck out over a 100 times twice and his on base percentage is an absolutely dismal .316. The potential is still there and he has some decent speed and good power potential. His ceiling is kind of like last year's injured B.J. upton.

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