Friday, January 2, 2009

Pitching, a Ten

A baseball team's pitching rotation is its backbone. Much like the goalie in hockey or the quarterback in football much of the game rides on the shoulders of a team's starting pitcher. Most MLB managers agree, you can have all of the offense in the world, but with a shotty pitching staff wins will be hard to come by. The Yankees learned this rule of thumb in 2008 when they missed the playoffs for the first time in decades. The Rays on the other hand flourished and nearly won a World Series while riding the shoulders of Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, James Shields, David Price and Grant Balfour. Some said that "letting the Devil out" was what got them to the playoffs, but it was the hell that Rays' pitchers inflicted on opposing teams that got them there. The teams with the best pitching rotations are listed below--


The Best

1. The New York Yankees (A)-CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chien Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Every pitcher in the Yankees' rotatoin is formidable, and C.C. Sabathia is regarded as one of the best pitchers in the MLB. Wang is model of consistensy, finally missing time last year due to a freak accident--a Giambian-torn-planter-faschia. Burnett is a wild card, but his stuff isn't. A mid 90's fastball and a sweeping slider has made Burnett a strikeout artist and a very valuable number 2 starter. Joba Chamberlain's only drawback is his questionable durability, but he has the stuff and the competitive spirit to lead this staff, and will soon be atop the majors in strikeouts, wins and era. Phil Hughes is another player with a fortune that will be determined by his durability. Before a dissapointing 2008 campaign, Hughes was regarded as the best young pitcher in the MLB. If he can stay healthy and return to his 2007 form, he also could lead this staff. If any of those 5 go down, the Yankees have plenty of security in Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, Dan Giese and maybe even Dellin Betances. This list of pitchers may not be the greatest, but all of them sans Betances has proven to be a serviceable major league starter. They get an A, and it would be a surpsie if the Yankees weren't in the mix come October.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (A)- James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, David Price. The Devil Rays are absolutely overflowing with talented, young starting pitchers. The minors holds Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Jacob McGee and Jeff Niemann, all of whom have been rated as top twenty prospects at some point. With this rotation the Rays may not be in dire need of bullpen help but it would be nice to get some to stop Kazmir's arm from falling off. The only reason the Rays aren't looking down at the Yankees is Kazmir's questionable health, but the team's depth is certainly the best in both leagues.

3. Anaheim Angels (B+)- Ervin Santana, John Lackey, Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar/Dustin Mosely. The Angels' pitching staff is deep, consistent and strong but without a true number one starter. Ervin Santana and John Lackey could easily combine for 40 wins, and Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders and Kelvim Escobar all have the tools to be top fifteen pitchers. Even if any of them go down, Nick Adenhart and Jordan Walden are still waiting in the minors for an opportunity to arise. The security of a fantastic bullpen may have decreased but Fuentes, Shields and Arredondo are a pretty good 1-2-3 combo.

4. San Francisco Giants (B+)- Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito/Noah Lowry. The Giants of new are a stark contract for the Bonds' era Giants. Pitching is their game and they're hella good at it. Tim Lincecum is hands down the best pitcher in the MLB, with Matt Cain definitely being a top ten starter. Jonathan Sanchez is a strikeout artist and is on the rise, and Randy Johnson still has something left in the tank.Zito can, at the very least eat innings, but if he fails then Noah Lowry might succeed. Outside of the Dodgers, the Giants are really the only contender in the NL West, and they may very well be in the playoff mix in 2009.

5. Boston Red Sox (B+)- Josh Beckett, John Lester, Clay Bucholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Bowden/Tim Wakefield. Theo Epstein has been very adept at putting together a very good all around team without breaking the bank. He's not a huge fan of Josh Beckett, and would like to get Hanley back--the Beckett-Hanley trade is what made him walk in the first place-- but he certainly won't argue against Beckett's ability to win. John Lester is a fantastic young pitcher and cancer survivor. He's a left and could be a 20 game winner in 2009. Clay Bucholz is the Red Sox version of Phil Hughes and will look to come in to his own in 2009. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a fantastic sophmore season in Boston going 18-3 with a measley 2.90 ERA-- its a wonder he didn't get more Cy Young consideration. Mike Bowden is a top prospect and looks like he'll be a very good number three starter- but if he fails, trusty Tim Wakefield will be ready to eat some innings.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks (B)- Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Doug Davis, Yusmeiro Petit/Jarrod Parker. The Diamond backs 1-2 punch of Haren and Webb is enough to knock out even the best of offenses. Sherzer is the Joba Chamberlain of the NL, but after those three its Doug Davis and Yusmeiro Petit. Certainly neither of these guys are embarassing, but phenom Jarrod Parker is waiting patiently in the minors to come up to the show and start busting heads.

7. Toronto Blue Jays (B)- Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jessie Litsch, Brett Cecil/David Purcey. Marcum won't be back until late 2009, but when healthy, even with the loss of Burnett, The Bluejays are yet another formidable rotation in the already stacked AL East. Halladay is one of the best and just missed a Cy Young in 2008. McGowan has nasty stuff and will look to make a comeback in 2009. Litsch is a winner and very consistent. Brett Cecil has the best slider in both leagues and looks like he could break out in 2009. Marcum is out, but you could certainly do worse than David Purcey.

8. New York Mets (B)- Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, John Niese, Oliver Perez(?)Derek Lowe(?). A lot of the Mets pitching success will depend on whether or not they sign Perez and/or Lowe. Santana is one of the best in the game, maybe ever. John Maine has durability issues, but when hes on he's an ace. Pelfrey has the makings of a solid number 2 starter, Niese looks more than serviceable and Oliver Perez, although inconsisent has ace stuff. Derek Lowe is getting old, true, but his sinker is as good as it always was--he'd be a decent pick up for New York, although its unlikely he'll be able to repeat his numbers with the Dodgers.

9. Chicago Cubs (B)- Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Sean Marshall/Chad Gaudin/Rich Hill/Jason Marquis/Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs have a VERY deep rotation headed by Harden, Zambrano and Dempster. Zambrano is good for 15 wins yearly, Harden, when healthy, has the best stuff in the game and Dempster was an All Star in '08. Ted Lilly is very consistent and very decent-- he's an NL Andy Pettitte. Their 5th starter is a question mark with five guys competing for the job. Sean Marshall has a good deameanor, Gaudin has decent stuff, Marquis is a solid veteran, and Jeff Samardzija has the best stuff of any of them but found success in teh bullpen in '08.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (B)-Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Jason Schmidt, James McDonald. The Dodgers don't have the deepest rotation, but if all of the parts are healthy than they could easily have a B+ rotation. Billingsley is a big game pitcher and really came in to his own in 2008 but we'll have to see how he recovers from a broken leg. Clayton Kershaw is THE next pitcher in the MLB and would be a fantastic staff leader on any team. Kuroda is consistent, McDonald is young but donns a cannon and Jason Schmidt, when healthy is a veteran who can rack up some strikeouts and wins.

Just Missed- Minnesota Twins, Chicago Whitesox

The Worst

1. Baltimore Orioles (D-)- Jeremy Guthrie, Greg Olson, Radhames Liz, Matt Albers, Chris Tillman/Troy Patton. Outside of Tillman and Guthrie the Orioles have very little pitching talent. It's hard to win when four of your five starters have ERA's above 5.00. Guthrie is a solid number two or three starter, Olson looked absolutely lost in 2009, Tillman has the makings of an ace, Liz looks no better than a good middle reliever, Patton is an injury waiting to happen and Albers is on the cusp of having rotator cuff surgery. The future is bleak in Baltimore, but atleast Wieters, Markakis and Jones will keep fans in the seats. Maybe Tillman (pictured here) can provide a rock that the team can build a future around-- he certainly has the tools. The top pitcher in last years draft, Brian Matusz looks like a sure shot for 2010's rotation, and with his snapping curveball and fajita sizzling fastball (93-95 with absolutely ridiculous lateral break) he may finally but the birds on the map.

2. Texas Rangers (D+)- Kevin Millwood, Kason Gabbard, Brandon McCarthy, Eric Hurley, Vicente Padilla/Neftali Feliz/Scott Feldman. Although the Rangers are filled to the brim with young pitching talent, it has been a long time since any of the Rangers' pitching prospects has been able to survive in Arlington. The dry air and the long ball kills young pitchers and 2009 will only solidify this fact. Nowhere to go but up, the Rangers may simply go nowhere.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (D+)- Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Ross Ohlendorf/Jeff Karstens. The Pirates finally look ready to make the next step, but before they can they really need to fix their starting rotation. Its hard to bash Maholm, hes not bad and neither is Ian Snell--despite his '09 numbers. Gorzelanny looks like he may be on the cusp of completely falling apart, Zach Duke doesn't look any better than a serviceable fifth start, Ross Olendorf is an awful starting pitcher and Jeff Karstens couldn't strike out a ten year old girl. Put these five or six together and you'll get 100 losses annually.

4. Houston Astros (D+)- Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler. Its hard to believe but the Astros have fallen REALLY far from the form they had a few years ago. Roy Oswalt is still one of the best starters in the NL but hes definitely not getting a younger. Wandy Rodriguez is lousy, Brandon Backe is a nobody, Mike Hampton is far removed from any sort of effectiveness and Brian Moehler is a AAA journeyman. Its hard to give the Astros a rank above the Pirates, but thats only because Oswalt is so good at carrying a staff. Whats most troubling is the lack of talent in the Astros' farm system, in fact they don't have a single prospect ranked in the top 100, much less than a serviceable pitcher. They'll stink for a long time.

5. Atlanta Braves (C)- Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurjens, Javier Vasquez, Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes/James Parr. The Braves have a young staff with some promise looking beyond 2009. Jurjens, Hanson and Vazquez are all serviceable starters with polish and Campillo and Reyes look like they can atleast hold down a number five spot. Parr is nothing more than depth, and the Braves don't look too promising for 2009, but beyond this year they'll be aok. They're a heck of a lot better than the Astros though.

6. Milwaukee Brewers (C)- Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Cris Capuano, Seth McClung/Jeff Suppan. The Brewers we hurt by free agency more than any other NL team. The loss of C.C. Sabathia has doomed the Brewers to mediocrity. Gallardo looks like he could be an ace, and Parra looks atleast decent even if he is on the cusp of injury. Outside of those two, the rest of the staff is a bunch of journeymen and number five starters. It would come as a suprise if the Brewers stayed above .500 in 2009.

7. Washington Nationals (C)- John Lannan, Jordan Zimmerman, Colin Balester, Shawn Hill/Scott Olson, Jason Bergmann/Ross Detwiler. The Nationals aren't bad, just young. Lannan proved to be a solid starter in 2009, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler look like future number 1's, Hill and Bergmann both have the ability to win and sustein a sub four ERA, Balester looks like he could put up Andy Pettitte type numbers and Scott Olson will regress, but still has the ability to win some games and eat some innings with his stuff and being that he's a lefty. As insurance Shairon Martis and Garett Mock both look like they can fill in for a starter from time to time. As they grow, the Natties will become a top 15 pitching staff in no time.

8. San Diego Padres (C+)-Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Wade LeBlanc, Josh Geer, Will Inman/Cha Seung Baek. Peavy is what holds this rotation together and the Padres are tireless working to trade him. Chris Young, when healthy is consistent and generally effective while Inman and LeBlanc look like they could become decent starters. Josh Geer isn't bad but Cha Seung Back is. Once a top prospect, Baek has fallen far from san Diego's graces and will probably end up in the bullpen or somewhere else in 2009.

9. Kansas City Royals (C+)- Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar, Zach Greinke. The Royals aren't bad, they're a heck of a lot better than the Astros for instance, but they're incredibly young and inexperienced. Greinke and Meche are both front line starters. Meche was a controversial signing in 2006 but has proven to be an innings-eating staff leader. Despite his mental issues and depression Greinke has proven that he can be an ace when he's on his game. Bannister had an off year in 2009, but if he bounces back he can be a solid innings-eating third starter. Kyle Davies was once a top prospect for the Braves, and if he fulfills his expectations he too could be a very good pitcher, Luke Hochevar has shown signs of number-one-pick-ability but still has yet to put it together. The Royals can only get better, and are quite possibly a sleeper in 2009.

10. Oakland Athletics (C+)- Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez/Justin Duchscherer. The Athletics are a very young and raw team, even more so than the Royals. They're staff is a total wildcard. However, Cahill and Anderson are both top 15 prospects, Gio Gonzalez has filthy stuff, Sean Gallagher showed flashes of brilliance and Dana Eveland looks like a very solid number 2 or three. Justin Duchscherer was in the CY Young race, and led the AL in era before he went down with injury mid-season 2009. If the Athletics can get these young guns comfortable they could be a contender in 2009, and will likely be one by 2010.

Just Missed- Cleveland Indians

No comments:

Post a Comment

Custom Search