Sunday, January 4, 2009

The Top of the Heap


The best of the best are scattered throughout the MLB, but there is an obvious concentration in the AL East. Still, if you're drafting for fantasy value, the following players with score the best--some obvious, some not so obvious. Pitchers generally score better but there are batters that travel far ahead of the pack (Chase Utley at 2nd).

1. Tim Lincecum RHP- The best pitcher in the NL and the reining Cy Young Award winner. Lincecum is young, strange looking and lanky. His curveball is an absolute hammer, his fastball catches fire and his change is well, a hell of a change of pace. His team is only going to get better and hes surrounded by top 5 rotation with Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson and Noah Lowry/Barry Zito. Better yet he has closer Brian Wilson to back him up. At age 25, Lince is only going to get better and although a small frame, he has a hell of a delivery--easy and big.
Projected '09 Stats: 220 ip, 17-8, 2.85, 250 k's

2. C.C. Sabathia, LHP, Yankees- Sabathia is no spring chicken but I don't buy that his tired arm will carry over to 2009. First of all he's absolutely massive and looks like a formidable opponent to an Alaskan Grizzly. Second of all, he's an African American--the race statistically proven to maintain more bone and connective tissue that Caucasian or Asian pitchers after age thirty. C.C. managed to win 17 games for the lowly Indians and Brewers--imagine what he can do with Tex, Jeter and Arod backing him up. He scored the most points not just of any pitcher, but of any fantasy player in 2008.
Projected '09 Stats: 230 ip, 20-7, 3.15, 220 k's

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins- Hanley isn't long for the Marlins and Theo Epstein, always an avid fan of Hanley is salivating at the idea of bringing Hanley to beantown. Originally, Theo left the Red Sox after the trade of Hanley for Josh Beckett- yep he's that good. If he does end up wearing the red sox, then his numbers will absolutely explode-- 50-50 is very possible for him at Fenway. After all, in that thick Florida air he hit .301 with 33 homers and 35 stolen bases. He's only turning 26, so he too has nowhere to go but up.
Projected '09 Stats: .310, 35 hr, 100 rbis' 100 runs, 40 sb's

4. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals- Pujols will be turning 29 in April but he seems like he's been playing for ever. Arguably the best pure hitter in both leagues, the only drawback is that he plays a relatively stacked position-- first base. The man with the feces' name hit .357 last year and is a .334 hitter throughout his career-he has pop too, belting 37 homers in '08. Something more rare that is really only seen in Albert is his ability to make contact, the man only struck out 54 times in '08 and hasn't ever gotten withing shouting distance of 100 outside of his rookie season when he had 93.
Projected '09 Stats: .330, 35 hr, 120 rbi, 100 runs

5. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees- At 35 years old, he's maybe not the best pick for keeper leagues--you still know that you'll get a lot out of Alex--probably the best hitter ever. He had a "down" year last year and still managed 35 bombs and a .302 batting overage through 510 at bats. He's a fantasy beast, and outside of his age, he'll be productive for the next three to four years at least. Now with Brian Cashman providing and on base machine like Texeira, Arod will have a sexy amount of rbi's with Damon, Jeter and Tex in front of him.
Projected '09 Stats: .300, 40 hr, 125 rbi, 100 runs, 20 sb's

6. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets- Wright regressed a little bit last year, and as streaky as he is, he'll still managed to put up great numbers.33 homers and a .300 batting average to go along with his 15 steals. He has the potential to steal 30, but with such a weak lineup around him the Mets will be scared to run anyone outside of Jose Reyes. He's still only 26 and won't be 27 until December so you'll know you'll have right for the next decade-- if not more. More of a complement than a rock-- Wright helps any team make the playoffs.
Projected'09 Stats: .315, 30 hrs, 100 rbi, 100 runs, 20 sb's

7. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies- Hamels is a strange case. He doesn't throw particularly hard and his breaking stuff isn't Barry Zito's. He has been relying on his changeup more and more and this will keep him pitching for much longer. He pitches and pitches and pitches and proved to be a hell of a clutch pitcher through the World Series. The Phillies are looking good in '09 and that means wins for Hamels. He's still only 24 and will likely end up as one of the best of his era.
Projected '09 Stats: 20-11, 220 ip, 3.10 era, 200 k's

8. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays- Longoria is young and is on an up and coming team. His performance in the 2009 postseason left fantasy owners hungering for more. No 3rd basemen much less players could match he and BJ Upton's performance both belting about 9 homers in the postseason. He hit 27 bombs last year, in only 448 at bats. The man with the sexy name is still soo young that his ceiling is sky high--he won't even turn 24 until October 7th! He isn't rated higher because of the recent failures of Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre, but with Braun playing in LF, Longoria has become hands down the most promising 3rd basemen and a pest nipping at the heels of AROD and Wright.
Projected '09 Stats: .300, 40 hr, 110, 100 runs, 10 sb's

9. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets- Between Reyes, Wright and Beltran its a wonder the Mets don't ever make the playoffs. Reyes is good for an annual 60 sb's. His homerun and rbi totals have leveled off at about 15-20 which gives him a pretty low rating among the top 10. Even so he hits about .300, will score 100-110 runs and his 60 sb's always put him atop the league. Better yet, he's a shortsop. He's only going to be 26 in June, so he may still have some growing to do.
Projected '09 Stats: .300, 20 hr, 100 rbi, 110 runs, 60 sb

10. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees- It's impressive that Teixeira moves around so much and still maintains his power and average. Now that he's with the Al East's juggernaut his numbers will only go up, especially in front of the King of stats, Alex Rodriguez. Even though Teixeira is a beast in his own right, nobody wants to pitch around him. He has Damon and Jeter in front of them who both have plus speed and hit for average. His position makes him a bottom of the top 10 player, but his strong power, his age (28) and his batting average make him a hot commodity. Even with the friendly pitching confines of Atlanta, Teixeira still managed to belt some bombs, and he hits exceedingly well in the clutch-something the Yankees are starving for.
Projected '09 Stats: .320, 40 hr, 130 rbi, 100 runs

Top 10 Bargains-

1. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies- Because he's currently injured a lot of owners will stay away from him. He's only 31 and theres no reason to think a hip injury will ruin his career. Any second basemen that can hit .300 with 30 homers is worth a top pick and the Phillies look as strong as any team in the NL. If you can get him in the mid second round, you better swipe him.
Projected '09 Stats: .290, 30, 100 rbi, 100 runs, 10 sb's

2. Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros- It's so hard to understand why the most consistent pitcher of the new millenium hasn't won a Cy Young yet. He's won 20 games twice and won the ERA title twice and he regularly pitches between 200 and 240 innings annually. For some reason fantasy owners never put him in the same league as Brandon Webb or Dan Haren even though Oswalt's numbers are comparable. He's with a poor team, true, but his streak in September really upped his value. You'll be able to get him in the third or even fourth run (if you're lucky), so snag him if you can. He's still only 31 so he'll be a good keeper for a few more years.
Projected '09 Stats: 18-9, 3.30 era, 200 k's.

3. Dana Eveland, SP, Oakland Athletics- Eveland finally started living up to his potential in 2008 and will look to lead to Athletics' rotation in '09. He's not a top ten round pick, but his 4.34 era and an outside shot of 16 or 17 wins with the Athletics offense and Matt Holliday's big bat. His minor's numbers suggest that a sub four era is in sight, and his k's will come between his curveball and slider. His fastball is nothing to write home about but his superior control is what Ian Kennedy still strives for. Pick him in the middle rounds and lock him in as a third starter.
Projected '09 Stats: 3.90 era, 15-10, 200 ip, 150 k's

4. Jason Werth, OF, Phillies- A breakout year for the once top prospect Werth, he manged 24 bombs and 20 stolen bases in 2/3 of a season. A very solid outfielder as well, Werth has a stranglehold on the Phillies leftfield spot now that Burrell hit the road. A player that can go thirty 30 or atleast slug .500 should always go in the top 5 rounds, but I got worth in a 20 team keeper league in round 12. B.J. Upton gets all of the attention but Werth quitely put up better numbers in 2008.


5. Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh Pirates-After Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto and Matt Wieters comes Doumit, a catcher who can easily put up 30 home runs and a plus batting average. Playing for an absolutely lousy team he managed to wallop 15 homers en route to a .501 slugging percentage and a .318 batting average in just 431 at bats. He's already 28, which is old for a catcher who really didn't show much until 2007, but regardless he'll hit ahead of the pack, maybe even better. McCann is the best, no doubt, and Mauer is a close second, but I'd nab Doumit before anyone else.
Projected '09 Stats: .300, 25 hr, 80 rbi, 80 runs

6. Pat "The Bat" Burrell, OF, Tampa Bay Rays- Now that Burrell has left the unfriendly fanbase in Philly he'll be given a new start in Tampa Bay. Although Citizen's bank park certainly isn't hard to hit in, Burrell will be surrounded by a better all around lineup and will be hitting in a ball park where pop ups reach the bleachers. Because of his low average and high strikeout totals, Burrell probably won't go until the middle rounds. A guy that can hit 30 homers available in the 10th round? You bet.
Projected '09 Stats: .275, 35 hr, 90 rbi, 80 runs

7. Matt LaPorta, OF, Cleveland Indians- LaPorta has the luxury that few other rookies have-- he'll be thrown right into the outfield/1b mix with Pronk injured and Franklyn Guttierez injured. LaPorta doesn't have any MLB experience, but his MiLB stats are intimidating. LaPorta has slugged .577 throughout his MLB career and has a lofty .382 on base percentage through AA Akron Aeros and Huntsville Stars. It was a bad move for the Brewers to trade LaPorta just to rent C.C. and they'll pay for it as he becomes the next Ryan Braun. If you can get him, draft him in the middle rounds.
Projected '09 Stats: .280, 30, 80, 80

8. Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays- McGowan has been long forgotten after injury kept him injured for half of 2008. Don't be the one to forget McGowan. He was an up and coming young pitcher in 2006 when he had a 4.07 Era and 144 k's to 142 hits. True he may be injured in the beginning of the year--he AND Marcum, but when he comes back he should be the number 2 starter behind Halladay even though he dons number 1 stuff.
Projected '09 Stats: 12-8, 3.90, 180 ip, 190 k's

9. Jacob McGee, SP, Durham Bulls: Don't forget about McGee. In my fantasy league he was dropped for Skip Schumaker due to the dept of the Ray's rookie pitching and his Tommy John Surgery. But don't forget he led ALL AA pitchers on strikeouts in '07. Better yet he's a lefty. I'm not sold on Wade Davis--personally I think Wade Davis is better. I am definitely not sold on Jeff Niemann, and come September McGee could be vying for a starting spot. Either way, he's a great keeper.
Projected '10 Stats: 14-6, 4.00, 180 ip, 200 k's

10. Carlos Gonzalez, CF, Colorado Rockies- Even with the departure of Matt Holliday the Rockies have an absolutely stacked outfield. Gonzalez was in the Holliday trade and now that he was traded to the super friendly hitters park Coors Field, he'll be belting bombs. The only drawback he ever had was his strikeout rate and contact hitting ability. Regardless, average won't be improved by Coors but his home run numbers will.

11. Ryan Spilborghs, RF, Colorado Rockies- Another Rockies outfielder that is finally getting a look is Ryan Spilboroughs. He should've been starting over Taveras long ago, and will definitely be an upgrade in '09. He's generally a platoon guy like Brad Hawpe, but he still hits for averagee and some solid power. He's hit .302 throughout his career and .313 last year in only 233 at bats. His numbers don't show platoon hitter anymore as he hit over .300 against both righties and lefties so don't be afraid of him. He's starting this year, so snag him off waivers asap.
Projected '09 Stats: .310, 15 hr, 70 rbi, 90 runs, 15 sb

12. Sean Rodriguez, SS, Anaheim Angels- With Brandon Wood on the horizon Rodriguez has pretty much been forgotten about. Mike Scioscia, for some reason, prefers Chone Figgins at 3rd even though he barely breaks 20 extra base hits a year. Wood has struck out a ton in the minors, and that won't improve his stock in the AL. Granted Rodriguez has strikeout problems too, he can play SS, 3rd, or 2b and without the hype of Wood he'll be available late.In 2008 Sean Rod struggled in the majors, only hitting .202 but his AAA numbers suggest that he'll be a serious power hitting 2nd, SS, or 3rd basemen. He hit 21 homeruns in less than half a season (248 at bats) at AAA. He'll be like a Dan Uggla except cheaper.
Projected '09 Stats- .260, 20 hr, 70 rbi, 70 runs, 15 sb.

13. Travis Ishikawa, 1B, San Francisco Giants- Ishikawa didn't exactly break out in '08 but he did enough between AAA and the big club to secure the starting first base job in '09. His MLB numbers may have been mediocre, .274 with a ,432 sluggin%, his AAA numbers were through the roof- 16 homers in only 177 at bats. Ishikawa has some serious power, and is contact isn't half bad-- fairly rare among power hitting first basemen. Nobody even knows who this guy is so you should be able to snag him off waivers.
Projected '09 Stats: .290, 25 hr, 80 rbi. 70 runs

14. Matt Antonelli, 2B, San Diego Padres- Antonelli took a step back in 2008 for the AAA ball club but it looks like he'll assume the role of solid San Diego second basemen in 2009. At Wake Forest Antonelli was a top tier hitter and in 2007 he slugged .499 at A+ Lake Elsinore Storm and his batting averaeg was .314 too. Usually I wouldn't recommend a guy that hit below the Mendoza line in his only major league experience, but after scouting him myself I'm convinced he'll be Marcus Giles (of old). Second is a super thin position in '2008, so he'll be a good snag.
Projected '09 Stats: .280, 15 hr, 60 rbi, 15 sb

15. Hank Blalock, 3B/1B, Texas Rangers- It's hard to believe that Hammer'n hank is still only 28--probably because he started hitting so early. Ever since his 32 homers in 2005 Blalock has been a big dissapointment for the Rangers, but he seemed to find out something about his swing in the 333 at bats he had in 2008 that allowed him to live up to his name again. He'll probably be at 1B this year depending on how Chris Davis improves defensively and Justin Smoak's eta, but if you're without a corner infielder late, take a change on Blalock and at the very least you'll get Adam Laroche numbers.

Projected '09 Stats: .280, 25 hr, 90 rbi, 80 runs

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