Sunday, December 21, 2008

What's Expected of the Yankees in 2009

No Clutch No Glory
With by far the largest payroll of any team in both leagues, the Yankees are always a favorite to make the playoffs in the AL East. With C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett (Carl Pavano Deux), Chien Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, they arguably have the most formidable rotation of any team. Their offense isn't as good as it once was. Xavier Nady played beyond his potential in 2008 and likely will come back to earth with .280 and 20-25 homers in 2009. Jorge Posada wasn't a good defensive catcher before his arm fell off, and now after shoulder surgery he'll have burners walking (running) all over him. Even though we still think of him as Baby Yankee, Derek Jeter is getting old and simply doesn't have the tools to lead this team. 11 home runs, a little over 20 doubles, an unacceptable amount of GIDP's, a handful of stolen bases and a barely .300 average along with his piss-poor defense makes Jeter an above average hitter-nothing more.

Statman and Austin in the Outfield
Who knows what A-Rod will bring? The Statman had an MVP year in 2007, but then took 25-30 games off in 2008 and once again stopped hitting in the clutch. A cleanup hitter who grounds in to double plays and strikes out with men in scoring position is frustrating at best. Melky Cabrera is still a very good defensive outfielder with a Mark Kotsay offensive upside- he should be the one starting over Mr. Gardner. Brett Gardner is an exciting guy to watch, but he shouldn't be more than a pinch runner/4th outfielder. He has absolutely no power, and might never hit one out of the park. Gardner's contact hitting ability also doesn't look too promising-- a burner that strikes over a 100 times a year doesn't fit in the lead off spot. His only value is his speed, and his somewhat effective patience but the minor leagues are littered with these type of players.

Billy Beane's Former Love Interest
Nick Swisher was a good pick-up for the Yankees. His lousy year last year seemed to be a combination of his poor relationship with Ozzie Guillen and his general misery playing in Chicago. Still, Swisher will never hit for average, but his upside is very Adam Dunn. He can walk at a Kevin Youkilis rate and he can spank 30 homeruns a year-- a Jason Giambi with some defensive value,


The 'Pen is Mightier
Perhaps the Yankees biggest question mark at the beginning of last season was their bullpen. Now that Girardi has replaced the mentally incompetent/too-soft Joe Torre, the bullpen has pulled a .180 to the point of being one of the bets in the MLB. Jose Veras is a fantastic set up man, able to pitch in big games and get big outs. Edwar Ramirez gives up the long ball but in the 7th inning he's generally very effective-- especially against lefties. Rivera is still Rivera. David Robertson deserves a spot in the pen. The guys a top prospect as a reliever and showed flashes of Scott Shields last year. Phil Coke is hittable but solid and can fill the long reliever role pretty well. Damaso Marte provides some stability and veteran leadership and another lefty arm-- he can get out righties too. In the minors Mark Melancon has torn apart AA hitters, and the big fatty Andrew Brackman is too fragile to start and his 95 mph fastball could make a conversion to MR very easy.

The Million Dollar Man and A.J. Burnout
The starting rotation obviously looks like the Yankees strongest area. C.C. Sabathia will give the Yankees a quality start almost every time out. A.J. Burnett, unspectacular and very injury prone will atleast give them 140 winnable innings. Chien Ming Wang is consistent and a winner, and is the best third starter in the AL. Joba Chamberlain is lights out, but after his arm tiring last year its hard to say how much of a load he can carry. The Steinbrenner's don't want him pitching more than 27 games this year. Phil Hughes was all but forgotten after two injur-filled years with the big boys. Still though, he's only 22 and he has the stuff and control to be an Ace. The question mark with Hughes is always his health, but a strong bullpen and a deep rotation will take some of the pressure off of his shoulder. Ian Kennedy doesn't look like he'll every be a reliable starter. He could be a decent 5th starter if he learns another pitch, but as of right now he can't scare MLB hitters at all.


The Young Guns
The Yankees minor league teams are extremely polarized. They have nobodies, career AAA players and then some very good prospects. Dellin Betances could be closer to the big team than he should be, but his stuff is incredible, his big frame looks sturdy and being a student of the game he looks like a future ace. Austin Jackson won't be a god, but a Tori Hunter/Adam Jones looks very possible. At the very least, his defense will get him a job. Mark Melancon, already mentioned above, throws fire and has recovered from T.J. surgery quickly. Francisco Cervelli looks like a very solid backup, and on many teams he would have a starting job. No power, but Cervelli's contact and plus defense will give him a roster spot somewhere. Zach McAllister shows flashes of brilliance and mixes above average stuff with very good control. You never know, he could disappear in the minors but he looks like he has a shot at a starting spot somewhere--probably not with the Yankees...trade bait.

Pride of the Baby Yankees
Jesus Montero, the pride of the Yankees' minor league system looks like the next Ivan Rodriguez-- with even more power. The kid is a beast and at 19 (20 in 2009) he's hitting 450 foot bombs to the opposite field. Austin Romine is another young Yankees catcher with an extremely high ceiling. He has power to all fields, makes contact and has a cannon for an arm-- he should be a better hitting Lou Marson in no time.

Past their "Sell by" date
Alan Horne is complete garbage. Shelley Duncan, an old, fat and hideously ugly pseudo-prospect is running out of time. His completely unacceptable defense has left him positionless and his low average and high strikeout totals have kept him in the minors.

Andrew Breakman
Finally, Andrew Brackman is coming back from T.J. surgery. The NC State product was overrated form the day he was drafted but he still has considerable upside. He throws hard, hes big and he has a good breaking ball. The only problem is that he never seems to be completely healthy. The front-line starter hes projected to be is a very big stretch for a guy that has done nothing in the minor leagues, and didn't have especially intimidating numbers at NC State. However, a top reliever or a decent middle of the rotation type starter looks very possible.

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