From Zeroes to Heroes

The Royals, Twins, Giants, and Nationals are all looking much better than they did last year. The Twins and Giants are suddenly contenders while the Royals and Nationals are far from the bottom of their respective leagues. Below is a ranking of the most up-and-coming teams in baseball. The record to the right of the team name is what I project to be their record in 2009.
1. San Francisco Giants, 87-75: The Giants have a scary rotation (view it below) and have an improving offense. Their pitching staff features the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, a future Hall of Famer, one of the best young pitchers in baseball, a former Cy Young Award winner and an up-and-coming power lefty. If any of those guys goes down, they still have a very good lefty in Noah Lowry, and two of the top pitching prospects in baseball--Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson-- in the minors. The playoffs are in reach for the Giants, especially in the mediocre NL West. Their sucess rests on the shoulders of their young offense--which luckily has quite a few future All Stars in Pablo Sandoval, Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa. If these three produce, and provide some help to Rowand, Winn, Lewis and Molina the sky is the limit.

Rotation: A-

1. Tim Lincecum (A)
2. Randy Johnson (B)
3. Matt Cain (B+)
4. Barry Zito (C)
5. Jonathan Sanchez (B-/B)
6. Noah Lowry (B-)

Bullpen: B

CL Brian Wilson (B)
SU Bob Howry (B-)
LHP Jeremy Affeldt (B)
MR Alex Hinshaw (B+)
MR Sergio Romo (B)
LRP Merkin Valdez (C+)

Lineup: B

LF Fred Lewis (B-)
RF Randy Winn (B-)
CF Aaron Rowand (B-)
1B Travis Ishikawa (B)
3B Pablo Sandoval (B+)
C Bengie Molina (B)
SS Edgar Renteria (B-)
2B Kevin Frandsen (B-)

Bench B+
OF Nate Schierholtz (B/B+)
Util Juan Uribe (B-)
Util Eugenio Velez (B-)
CI Rich Aurilia (C+)
C Steve Holm (C+/B-)


2. Minnesota Twins 90-72: The Twins are back in business, and this time without Santana. Their outfield is stocked and included Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and the very solid Denard Span. Jason Kubel could go .300-30-100 some day at DH, and of course, Mauer and Morneau are there to lead the way. More importantly is their improvements to their rotation. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano provide some serious umph to the rotation, while Blackburn and Perkins are solid and will eat some innings in the back of the rotation.

The best part about the 2009 Twins is their depth. If anyone gets injured, they'll have a more-than-good-enough player to replace him. Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Mike Redmond would all be starting on other teams, so to have them on their bench is a luxury. Defensively the Twins have never been better and that bullpen is looking hotter than hell with the young guns Joe Mijares and Jesse Crain. Playoffs? Almost definitely.

Rotation B+/A-

1. Scott Baker (B+)
2. Francisco Liriano (A-)
3. Kevin Slowey (B)
4. Nick Blackburn (B)
5. Glen Perkins (B-)

Bullpen B+

CL Joe Nathan (A)
SU Jesse Crain (B+)
MR Matt Guerrier (B)
LHP Craig Breslow (B+)
MR Jose Mijares (B)
MRP Luis Ayala (C+)
LRP Phil Humber (B-)

Lineup A-

LF Denard Span (B-)
2B Alexi Casilla (C+)
C Joe Mauer (A)
1B Justin Morneau (A-)
DH Jason Kubel (B)
RF Michael Cuddyer (B-)
3B Joe Crede (C+/B-)
CF Carlos Gomez (B-)
SS Nick Punto (C)

Bench A-

Util Brendan Harris (B)
OF Delmon Young (B+)
C Mike Redmond (B-)
INF Brian Buscher (C)
C Jose Morales (B-)


3. Kansas City Royals, 81-81: The Royals aren't the Red Sox or Yankees, but they're a hell of a lot better than years past. The last time they made a run at the playoffs was about a half-decade ago when Tony Pena was manager. Since then they've been the worst in the AL. Their rotation is jumping leads and bounds toward respectability, their bullpen is one of the better ones in the AL and their offense is almost in the top 5. Zach Greinke and Gil Meche are the anchors of the staff, Meche being an incredibly free agent buy for the Royals. Danny Cortes and Luke Hochever have a bright future, but still need some work. Kyle Davies is poised to have a Kevin-Slowey-type season and Brian Bannister is looking to make a comeback.

Their offense is their strength. Coco Crisp was acquired from the Red Sox for Ramon Ramirez, and is looking to hit about 10-15 homers and steal 30-35 bases. David DeJesus is as solid as they come, and will probably hit near .300 with 12 homers and some good baserunning in the 2 hole. The 28-year-old Mike Aviles is underrated, even after putting up a .326 batting average in 2008, and could hit .300, 20 homers, and 40 doubles in a full season. Another underrated producer is Jose Guillen who has a cannon in right field and can usually hit 20-25 homers in 500-600 at bats. Both Butler and Gordon haven't lived up to their potential just yet, but if they do, you'll have two annual All-Stars on your hands. Butler could easily win a batting title, and Gordon will hit 40 homers some day. Alberto Callaspo doesn't get the credit he deserves, and he'll hit near .300 and play a solid second base for the Royal Blues in 2009. Miguel Olivo is all power and decent defense, and he will split at bats with the solid John Buck. Super Utility man Mark Teahen will get 400 at bats, and can put up 15 homers and a .280 batting average, while Killa Kila Ka'aihue could hit .300 some day. Looking ahead to 2009, they could make a run at the playoffs, but if not, they'll atleast be a .500 team.


Rotation B-
1. Gil Meche (B+)
2. Zach Greinke (B+)
3. Kyle Davies (B-)
4. Brian Bannister (C+)
5. Horacio Ramirez/ Luke Hochevar (C+)

Bullpen B+/A-

CL Joakim Soria (A)
SU Juan Cruz (B/B+)
LHP Ron Mahay (B)
SU Kyle Farnsworth (B)
MR Robinson Tejeda (B-)
MR Joel Peralta (C+)
LRP Jamey Wright (C+/B-)

Lineup A-

CF Coco Crisp (B)
LF David DeJesus (B)
SS Mike Aviles (B+/A-)
RF Jose Guillen (B)
3B Alex Gordon (B/B+)
DH Billy Butler (B/B+)
1B Mike Jacobs (B-)
2B Alberto Callaspo (B-)
C Miguel Olivo (C+)

Bench B

Util Mark Teahen (B-/B)
C John Buck (C+/B-)
1B Ryan Shealy (C+/B-)
INF Willy Bloomquist (C+)
1B Kila Ka'aihue (B/B+)


4. Washington Nationals, 76-86: The Nationals have a good lineup, and a deep one. They have power and speed in Dukes and Milledge. They have a developing 30 homerun hitter in Ryan Zimmerman and they have an annual 40 home run, on base machine in Adam Dunn. At short they have the very solid All Star Cristian Guzman, and at second they have defensive wizzes Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez. Nick Johnson is coming back from injury and is always a solid producer, and he'll split time with Josh Willingham.

The rotation isn't looking so hot, but it's not looking awful either. John Lannan and Scott Olsen are both solid pitchers and both will pitch 200 innings of 4.00-era-ball. Daniel Cabrera is a question mark, and has always had to the stuff to be an ace. Maybe a change of scenery will bring his potential out. Jordan Zimmerman is a future number 1, and has dominated in spring training, while Shairon Martis is a solid young gun that could post a sub 4.00 era some day. Their bullpen has been rebuilt and has improved dramatically.

Rotation B-

1. John Lannan (B)
2. Scott Olsen (B)
3. Daniel Cabrera (C+)
4. Jordan Zimmerman (B+)
5. Shairon Martis (B-)

Bullpen B

CL Joel Hanrahan (B)
SU Garret Mock (B+)
LHP Joe Beimel (B/B+)
MR Steven Shell (B)
MR Saul Rivera (B)
LRP Wilfedo Ledezma (B-)
LRP Jason Bergmann (B-)

Lineup B

CF Lastings Milledge (B)
SS Cristian Guzman (B-/B)
LF Adam Dunn (B+/A-)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (B)
RF Elijah Dukes (B)
1B Nick Johnson (B)
C Jesus Flores (B)
2B Anderson Hernandez (C)

Bench B-

OF/1B/C Josh Willingham (B-)
INF Alberto Gonzalez (C+)
OF Austin Kearns (B)
Util Ronnie Belliard (B-)
C Wil Nieves (D-)/C Luke Montz (C+)

5. Baltimore Orioles 81-81 (2010):



The Orioles are headed in the right direction, especially with their lineup. They may not compete in the AL East in 2009, but they makes this list because of their 2010 projections. Markakis, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, and Aubrey Huff are all in the top 10 at their positions--with Roberts in the top 5. Adam Jones is solid, can hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases if he finally gets there, and the platoon of Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton deserves a B. Mora has good range and has a nice bat (with no patience however) while Wigginton complements him with power and patience (but no range). Cesar Izturis is a fast and good-fielding shortstop, in the mold of Ray Sanchez while Ryan Freel is a very good utility man. Luke Scott is a nice DH capable of 25 homers annually.

The rotation has considerable issues to address. Although Jeremy Guthrie is as solid as they come, he's the only pitcher in there starting 5 that looks like a solid contender. Koji Uehara will probably be solid and he brings veteran leadership to the staff, while Adam Eaton is likely the worst starting pitcher in the AL. Mark Hendrickson has always been solid but hasn't really started the past few seasons, so he too is a wild card. Rich Hill is a project but still could develop into an ace. The 'pen needs work as well, but looks solid and is anchored by George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Matt Albers and Jim Johnson. Jamie Walker is awful, but a fellow dissapointing pitcher, Danys Baez is still just 31 and could bounce back and be effective again.

What makes the Orioles look promising isn't what they are now, but what they will be. Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are some of the best young arms in the minors, and when they get it going in the MLB they could provide some ace power to the Orioles. Brian Matuz, the second pitcher drafted in 2007, and a lefty, is one of the better pitchers in the minors as well and could be an ace some day--or at lead a solid Mark Mulder type. David Hernanez an Kam Mickolio are both developing into solid prospects as well. Th below pitching rotation is accompanied by the 2010 rotation.

Rotation C- (2010 B-/B)

1. Jeremy Guthrie (B)
2. Koji Uehara (B-/B)
3. Adam Eaton (D+)/ Chris Tillman (B)
4. Mark Hendrickson (C)/ Brian Matusz (B)
5. Rich Hill (B-/B)

Bullpen C (2010 B-)

CL Chris Ray (B)
LHP George Sherrill (B)
SU Matt Albers (B-)
SU Danys Baez (B-)
MR Jim Johnson (B)
LHP2 Jamie Walker (C+)
LRP Radhames Liz (B-)

2010 CL/SU Jake Arrieta (B+)

Lineup B/B+

CF Adam Jones (B)
2B Brian Roberts (A-)
OF Nick Markakis (A-)
1B Aubrey Huff (B/B+)
DH Luke Scott (B-)
LF Felix Pie (B-)
3B Melvin Mora (B-)
C Greg Zaun (C)/ Matt Wieters (A-)
SS Cesar Izturis (C/C+)

Bench B-

CI Ty Wigginton (B)
Util Ryan Freel (B-)
C Chad Moeller (B)
INF Chris Gomez (C)
OF/CI Nolan Reimold (C+/B-)

Minors B+/A-

C Matt Wieters (A-)
SP Chris Tillman (A-)
LHP Brian Matusz (B+)
P Jake Arrieta (B)
SP David Hernandez (B)
LHP Troy Patton (B-)
SP Chorye Spoon (C+/B-)
SP Kam Mickolio (C+/B-)
RP Hayden Penn (C+)

The Bullish & The Bearish: Fantasy Advice on Who to Keep and Who to Get Rid of

Buy

1. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: LaRoche has a career .294 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and a very sexy .897 OPS in the minors. His 2008 debut was horrid, batting well below the "Mendoza Line" with the Pirates and Dodgers. However since 2005, LaRoche has hit over .300 every year, and has slugged about .500 in each of those years. In 1,800 at bats he has also walked 243 times-proving that he as a good eye, even at such a young age. He has been working with his hitting coach to overcome the pressure that ruined his swing in 2008. His Spring has been fantastic.

2. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz shouldn't be compared to Hughes--he's better at every aspect of the game except their small gap in control that favors Hughes. His hammer-curve is one of the best in the minors and his 95 mph riding fastball is often unhittable when he places it well. His 2008 wasn't impressive--he posted an era over 6.00-- but with an aging pitching staff the Sox may very well have Bucky back in the rotation by the All Star Break.

3. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics: Travis Buck is a hell of a hitter, hitting .326 in his minor league career. His line drive swing averages about 45 doubles in a full season, and he could easily go 20 homers and 50 doubles at some point. His horrid concussion kept him sidelined for most of 2008, but his hot September showed that he has recovered. 20 homers, 10 stolen bases, a .280-.300 batting average and 40 doubles is very possible for him this year.

4. Angel Salome, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Outside of his suddenly-decent-defense, Kendall has turned into an awful player. He has absolutely no power, and is unable to hit the ball out of the infield most of the time. He grounds into double plays and his sub .250 batting average was bad even for a catcher. Luckily th Brewers have Salome. The major-league-ready Salome won the AA batting title in his league in 2008 batting .360. He may only be 5'9".but his stocky build and his strong arm make him look like a young pudge. He may never hit more than 20 homers, but a .300 average at some point seems like a decent bet. Buy him now before too much hype makes him an early round fantasy pick. Oh and Brett Lawrie is good too.

5. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees: Most baseball fans know too little about Betances. The kid from the Bronx is a great guy--polite, kind and he regularly attends minor or and major league games to study other pitchers. He is 6'8" and has long arms and legs. He throws 93-97 mph fastballs that have considerable movement, as well as a knuckle curve that is developing into a plus-plus out pitch. He occasionally toys with a changeup, and it may be good at some point, but his two plus pitches are all he needs as of now, and they have made him an elite prospect.

Sell

1. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: In 1,175 at bats Ludwick has 65 homers, a .517 slugging percentage and 209 rbis. Ludwick is on the wrong side of thirty, and those nice career numbers are really only a product of his 2008 performance. He may not regress to an average level, but he certainly won't be as valuable as he was last year unless lightning strikes twice. Now, especially with a crowded outfield, The Cardinals will be more apt to bench Ludwick in unfavorable matchups.

2. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers- Shoulder troubles ruin careers, and that's exactly what is happening to Hurley. Sadly, he hasn't even made a career out of his talent as of now. In his 580 innings in the minors he's struck out 534 and posted a nice 3.97 era, but hasn't blown away his competition. Now with shoulder trouble, his low-mid nineties fastball will regress to average and his breaking stuff will as well. Sell.


3. Greg Smith, LHP, Colorado Rockies- Smith has some elbow trouble and didn't have good stuff to begin with. His 4.16 era in 2008 was a product of the best pitcher's park in baseball, a young arm and some luck. Now in Colorado his era will raise a point, and if he makes it to 150 innings before his arm falls off he'd be lucky. In 190 innings pitched he gave up 21 homeruns. That number of bombs is horrible considering how difficult it is to hit in that stadium. In Colorado, he'll be spanked.

4. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners- Sell him while he's still in the top 100. He has never shown anything but average hitting ability, power and bad fielding. Now that he's an outfielder (not playing third since college) his value is almost nill. He has a career .798 OPS and a 2.74 batting average in the minors and most of those at bats were in AA or below. If he's posting average numbers in the low-mid level minors its hard for me to believe he'll be anything but decent--at best--in the majors.

5. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees- Kennedy doesn't have the talent to be a good major league starter--plus he's an asshole. His 87-90 mph fastball is straight and hittable. His 12-6 curve isn't special and he doesn't control it well, and his Vulcan change is his only plus pitch. His control was supposedly close to Mussina's, but from what I've seen, he's practically Victor Zambrano or Dennis Sarfate with his placement. Sell him now while theres still some hype surrounding him.

No Bull %@#$ in this Bullpen

The Yankees re-constructed bullpen is looking better than ever. It took Girardi just one season to completely revamp a struggling relief staff. Torre was notorious for being a terrible bullpen manager--overtiring young relievers, pulling set up men when they make a single mistake, etc... Girardi took a bunch of journeyman and unexperienced young pitchers and made the second best 'pen in the MLB--next to the Red Sox. Sorry Mets, but you still need work--no amount of money is going to make up for the fact that the back of your pen gives up gopher balls like Caddy Shack. Below is a list of the key pieces of the Yankees' pen in 2009. With Marte and Rivera clearly entrenched in the late innings, the Yankees have a pretty open 'pen to fill with young talent. The number in parenthesis is the pitcher's potential. The number the right of their letter grade, is my grade (based on the usual college grading system) for their current ability.


The New Guns

1. David Robertson, MR, 88 (A-): Robertson is a top 100 prospect, and one of the best young relievers in the MLB. His career MiLB era is an absolutely insane 1.24 in 138 innings. His career line is 12-3, 138 ip, 190 k, .93 whip and a 1.24 era. Jose Ceda is getting a lot of the hype, and he is very good, but Robertson has the better stuff--which is saying a lot. His power 12-6 curve, sider and fastball are all plus pitches. His 4-seamer rides and his 2-seamer dips. He looks to me to be a possible heir to Rivera.

2. Phil Coke, LHR, 85 (B+)- Outside of Marte, who actually did a better job of getting out righties than lefties in 2008, the Yankees haven't had a good lefty in the bullpen since Mike Stanton. Mike Myers was a bust, and the parade of shit that Torre chose to use didn't include one effective lefty. Phil Coke didn't allow a single earned run in his September callup in 2008, and is 2-0 with a 1.86 era this spring. His 94 mph 4 seamer and his slider are both top of the line. He finally came in to his own in 2007, and now in 2009, he looks to be a lock for the 'pen.

3. Mark Melancon, CL, 78 (A-)- Melancon is widely considered to be the heir to Rivera. His mid 90's fastball and his slider are both very, very good pitches. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, he went 6-0 and posted a 1.86 ERA in Trenton in 2008. He has an outside shot at the 'pen for 2009, but it looks like the Yankees want him to get some more work in the minors first.

4. Jonathan Albaladejo, MR/LR, 80 (B)- Albaladejo was traded to the Yankees, from the Nationals, for Tyler Clippard. He missed most of 2008 with injury but looks healthy and in shape for 2009. He's a sinker/slider pitcher who has good stuff. He has a low-mid nienties fastball. In 28 career ip in the majors, Alabaledejo has put up a 2.89 era and has struck out 25. He doesn't need any more time in the minors, but with the all-of-sudden-crowed Yankees' bullpen, he may have to start the season in AAA Columbus.

5. Humberto Sanchez, SU/LR/SP, 82 (A-)- Sanchez has a very high ceiling and can really fill any role for the Yankees in 2009. He throws a mid nineties fastball and a top of the line slider. The 6'6" 230 lb righty has a big enough body to be able to shake off his elbow surgery and shouldn't have too many problems in 2009 as long as he stays in shape. His career 4.15 ERA in the minors isn't fantastic, but right before his injury he seemed to put everything together. In 72 innings in 2006, Sanchez put up nice numbers-- a 1.75 era, 86 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Theres a good chance that he'll make the pen for 2009--Girardi loves his stuff.

6. Steven Jackson, MR, 76 (B-)- Steven Jackson has some decent stuff. A good fastball and decent breaking stuff, the southern boy may very well be one of the top 3 Yankees' 'pen prospects. It's highly unlikely that he'll make the 'pen for 2009, at least out of Spring training, but his 2.16 era suggests that the 27-year-old is MLB ready.

7. Kanekoa Texeira, SU, 74 (B)- The young Hawaiian has dominated the minors in his 144 career innings. He;s 11-5 with a 2.24 era and 149 strikeouts. He came with Swisher to the Yankees this Spring and has a very good change of being in the Yankees' pen in 2010.

8. Anthony Claggett, SU, 74 (B)- The 24-year-old Claggett may not be a star, but he is very solid. He throws a 93 mph fastball, a slurve and a solid change. He has a 2.76 ERA in 261 MiLB innings and will be in Scranton in 2009.

9. J.B. Cox, SU, 73 (B/B+)- The former college closer, Cox's stock has fallen since his first few years with the Yankees. His 4.75 ERA with Scranton last year wasn't too promising, but his slider is still one of the best in the minors. He still has a career 2.64 era in the minors, and will probably be a mid-season call-up in 2009.


The Proven Young Guns

1. Jose Veras, SU, 86 (B+)- Veras, hampered by elbow problems for most of his career came into the Yankees' bullpen dealing out of Spring training in 2008. He throws a fastball that can get to 98 mph, a hard slider and a good 12-6 curve. He was the most reliable reliever in the pen for the Yankees in 2008, outside of Bruney, and will probably make a bid to set up for Rivera in 2009.

2. Brian Bruney, SU, 83 (B)- In the minors, Bruney struck out 316 in 285 career ip. He has horrid control 164 in that span, but he had shown flashes of brilliance in 2007, and then put it together in the second half of 2008. He was the Yankees' best set up man in 2008, and he had 19 holds, a 1.83 era and 33 strikeouts in 34 ip. He gace up just 18 hits in the 34 innings but walked 16. He probably can never be a lock as a late inning reliever due to his control, but he can be a top-of-the-line middle reliever.

Back from the Dead


1. Edwar Ramirez, MR, 83 (B+)- The 6'3" 155 pound Ramirez looks 18, but is actually 28. Before learning his forking super-change, Edwar was cut from just about half of the teams in the AL. He learned that pitch in the Indy leagues and immediately won minor league relief pitcher of the year upon returning to professional ball. With Scranton in 2007 Edwar pitched 40 innings, posted a .54 era, gave up just 20 hits and struck out an insane 69. Because of his straight 88 mph fastball, and average slider, Edwar is prone to the homerun, but that superchange is one of the best pitches in the game. The 76 mph pitch, screwballs more than Pedro's circle-change, and makes hitters look absolutely horrible--even when it hangs. For most of 2008, Edwar had an ERA below 3.50, but a tough September made it rise to a still respectable 3.90. He pitched 55 innings and struck out 63.

2. Dan Giese, LR/SP, 81 (B-)- Giese is a nice guy, but never showed much potential in the minors before he hit 30. He helped the Yankees out in 2008, spot-starting and providing long relief. In 52 innings he has a 3.76 era and started 3 games. His minors numbers in AAA Columbus in 2008 were very impressive. He had a very nice 1.98 ERA in 51 innings, and struck out 51.

3. Alfredo Aceves, LR/SP, 78 (B-)- Aceves has an outside shot of making the Yankees 'pen in the long relief/spot starter role. It looks like Giese has his hands on it, but you never know...The 5'10 Mexican, already had a professional career in Mexico before coming to the Yankees. He knows how to pitch and has a lot of experience, but his stuff is only slightly above mediocre. He throws an 88-92 mpg fastball that gets some groundouts and a few different changes and breaking balls. In 140 career innings in the MiLB Aceves posted a 2.62 ERA and a .98 WHIP--so it's obvious he has some potential.