From Zeroes to Heroes

The Royals, Twins, Giants, and Nationals are all looking much better than they did last year. The Twins and Giants are suddenly contenders while the Royals and Nationals are far from the bottom of their respective leagues. Below is a ranking of the most up-and-coming teams in baseball. The record to the right of the team name is what I project to be their record in 2009.
1. San Francisco Giants, 87-75: The Giants have a scary rotation (view it below) and have an improving offense. Their pitching staff features the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, a future Hall of Famer, one of the best young pitchers in baseball, a former Cy Young Award winner and an up-and-coming power lefty. If any of those guys goes down, they still have a very good lefty in Noah Lowry, and two of the top pitching prospects in baseball--Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson-- in the minors. The playoffs are in reach for the Giants, especially in the mediocre NL West. Their sucess rests on the shoulders of their young offense--which luckily has quite a few future All Stars in Pablo Sandoval, Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa. If these three produce, and provide some help to Rowand, Winn, Lewis and Molina the sky is the limit.

Rotation: A-

1. Tim Lincecum (A)
2. Randy Johnson (B)
3. Matt Cain (B+)
4. Barry Zito (C)
5. Jonathan Sanchez (B-/B)
6. Noah Lowry (B-)

Bullpen: B

CL Brian Wilson (B)
SU Bob Howry (B-)
LHP Jeremy Affeldt (B)
MR Alex Hinshaw (B+)
MR Sergio Romo (B)
LRP Merkin Valdez (C+)

Lineup: B

LF Fred Lewis (B-)
RF Randy Winn (B-)
CF Aaron Rowand (B-)
1B Travis Ishikawa (B)
3B Pablo Sandoval (B+)
C Bengie Molina (B)
SS Edgar Renteria (B-)
2B Kevin Frandsen (B-)

Bench B+
OF Nate Schierholtz (B/B+)
Util Juan Uribe (B-)
Util Eugenio Velez (B-)
CI Rich Aurilia (C+)
C Steve Holm (C+/B-)


2. Minnesota Twins 90-72: The Twins are back in business, and this time without Santana. Their outfield is stocked and included Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and the very solid Denard Span. Jason Kubel could go .300-30-100 some day at DH, and of course, Mauer and Morneau are there to lead the way. More importantly is their improvements to their rotation. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano provide some serious umph to the rotation, while Blackburn and Perkins are solid and will eat some innings in the back of the rotation.

The best part about the 2009 Twins is their depth. If anyone gets injured, they'll have a more-than-good-enough player to replace him. Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Mike Redmond would all be starting on other teams, so to have them on their bench is a luxury. Defensively the Twins have never been better and that bullpen is looking hotter than hell with the young guns Joe Mijares and Jesse Crain. Playoffs? Almost definitely.

Rotation B+/A-

1. Scott Baker (B+)
2. Francisco Liriano (A-)
3. Kevin Slowey (B)
4. Nick Blackburn (B)
5. Glen Perkins (B-)

Bullpen B+

CL Joe Nathan (A)
SU Jesse Crain (B+)
MR Matt Guerrier (B)
LHP Craig Breslow (B+)
MR Jose Mijares (B)
MRP Luis Ayala (C+)
LRP Phil Humber (B-)

Lineup A-

LF Denard Span (B-)
2B Alexi Casilla (C+)
C Joe Mauer (A)
1B Justin Morneau (A-)
DH Jason Kubel (B)
RF Michael Cuddyer (B-)
3B Joe Crede (C+/B-)
CF Carlos Gomez (B-)
SS Nick Punto (C)

Bench A-

Util Brendan Harris (B)
OF Delmon Young (B+)
C Mike Redmond (B-)
INF Brian Buscher (C)
C Jose Morales (B-)


3. Kansas City Royals, 81-81: The Royals aren't the Red Sox or Yankees, but they're a hell of a lot better than years past. The last time they made a run at the playoffs was about a half-decade ago when Tony Pena was manager. Since then they've been the worst in the AL. Their rotation is jumping leads and bounds toward respectability, their bullpen is one of the better ones in the AL and their offense is almost in the top 5. Zach Greinke and Gil Meche are the anchors of the staff, Meche being an incredibly free agent buy for the Royals. Danny Cortes and Luke Hochever have a bright future, but still need some work. Kyle Davies is poised to have a Kevin-Slowey-type season and Brian Bannister is looking to make a comeback.

Their offense is their strength. Coco Crisp was acquired from the Red Sox for Ramon Ramirez, and is looking to hit about 10-15 homers and steal 30-35 bases. David DeJesus is as solid as they come, and will probably hit near .300 with 12 homers and some good baserunning in the 2 hole. The 28-year-old Mike Aviles is underrated, even after putting up a .326 batting average in 2008, and could hit .300, 20 homers, and 40 doubles in a full season. Another underrated producer is Jose Guillen who has a cannon in right field and can usually hit 20-25 homers in 500-600 at bats. Both Butler and Gordon haven't lived up to their potential just yet, but if they do, you'll have two annual All-Stars on your hands. Butler could easily win a batting title, and Gordon will hit 40 homers some day. Alberto Callaspo doesn't get the credit he deserves, and he'll hit near .300 and play a solid second base for the Royal Blues in 2009. Miguel Olivo is all power and decent defense, and he will split at bats with the solid John Buck. Super Utility man Mark Teahen will get 400 at bats, and can put up 15 homers and a .280 batting average, while Killa Kila Ka'aihue could hit .300 some day. Looking ahead to 2009, they could make a run at the playoffs, but if not, they'll atleast be a .500 team.


Rotation B-
1. Gil Meche (B+)
2. Zach Greinke (B+)
3. Kyle Davies (B-)
4. Brian Bannister (C+)
5. Horacio Ramirez/ Luke Hochevar (C+)

Bullpen B+/A-

CL Joakim Soria (A)
SU Juan Cruz (B/B+)
LHP Ron Mahay (B)
SU Kyle Farnsworth (B)
MR Robinson Tejeda (B-)
MR Joel Peralta (C+)
LRP Jamey Wright (C+/B-)

Lineup A-

CF Coco Crisp (B)
LF David DeJesus (B)
SS Mike Aviles (B+/A-)
RF Jose Guillen (B)
3B Alex Gordon (B/B+)
DH Billy Butler (B/B+)
1B Mike Jacobs (B-)
2B Alberto Callaspo (B-)
C Miguel Olivo (C+)

Bench B

Util Mark Teahen (B-/B)
C John Buck (C+/B-)
1B Ryan Shealy (C+/B-)
INF Willy Bloomquist (C+)
1B Kila Ka'aihue (B/B+)


4. Washington Nationals, 76-86: The Nationals have a good lineup, and a deep one. They have power and speed in Dukes and Milledge. They have a developing 30 homerun hitter in Ryan Zimmerman and they have an annual 40 home run, on base machine in Adam Dunn. At short they have the very solid All Star Cristian Guzman, and at second they have defensive wizzes Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez. Nick Johnson is coming back from injury and is always a solid producer, and he'll split time with Josh Willingham.

The rotation isn't looking so hot, but it's not looking awful either. John Lannan and Scott Olsen are both solid pitchers and both will pitch 200 innings of 4.00-era-ball. Daniel Cabrera is a question mark, and has always had to the stuff to be an ace. Maybe a change of scenery will bring his potential out. Jordan Zimmerman is a future number 1, and has dominated in spring training, while Shairon Martis is a solid young gun that could post a sub 4.00 era some day. Their bullpen has been rebuilt and has improved dramatically.

Rotation B-

1. John Lannan (B)
2. Scott Olsen (B)
3. Daniel Cabrera (C+)
4. Jordan Zimmerman (B+)
5. Shairon Martis (B-)

Bullpen B

CL Joel Hanrahan (B)
SU Garret Mock (B+)
LHP Joe Beimel (B/B+)
MR Steven Shell (B)
MR Saul Rivera (B)
LRP Wilfedo Ledezma (B-)
LRP Jason Bergmann (B-)

Lineup B

CF Lastings Milledge (B)
SS Cristian Guzman (B-/B)
LF Adam Dunn (B+/A-)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (B)
RF Elijah Dukes (B)
1B Nick Johnson (B)
C Jesus Flores (B)
2B Anderson Hernandez (C)

Bench B-

OF/1B/C Josh Willingham (B-)
INF Alberto Gonzalez (C+)
OF Austin Kearns (B)
Util Ronnie Belliard (B-)
C Wil Nieves (D-)/C Luke Montz (C+)

5. Baltimore Orioles 81-81 (2010):



The Orioles are headed in the right direction, especially with their lineup. They may not compete in the AL East in 2009, but they makes this list because of their 2010 projections. Markakis, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, and Aubrey Huff are all in the top 10 at their positions--with Roberts in the top 5. Adam Jones is solid, can hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases if he finally gets there, and the platoon of Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton deserves a B. Mora has good range and has a nice bat (with no patience however) while Wigginton complements him with power and patience (but no range). Cesar Izturis is a fast and good-fielding shortstop, in the mold of Ray Sanchez while Ryan Freel is a very good utility man. Luke Scott is a nice DH capable of 25 homers annually.

The rotation has considerable issues to address. Although Jeremy Guthrie is as solid as they come, he's the only pitcher in there starting 5 that looks like a solid contender. Koji Uehara will probably be solid and he brings veteran leadership to the staff, while Adam Eaton is likely the worst starting pitcher in the AL. Mark Hendrickson has always been solid but hasn't really started the past few seasons, so he too is a wild card. Rich Hill is a project but still could develop into an ace. The 'pen needs work as well, but looks solid and is anchored by George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Matt Albers and Jim Johnson. Jamie Walker is awful, but a fellow dissapointing pitcher, Danys Baez is still just 31 and could bounce back and be effective again.

What makes the Orioles look promising isn't what they are now, but what they will be. Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are some of the best young arms in the minors, and when they get it going in the MLB they could provide some ace power to the Orioles. Brian Matuz, the second pitcher drafted in 2007, and a lefty, is one of the better pitchers in the minors as well and could be an ace some day--or at lead a solid Mark Mulder type. David Hernanez an Kam Mickolio are both developing into solid prospects as well. Th below pitching rotation is accompanied by the 2010 rotation.

Rotation C- (2010 B-/B)

1. Jeremy Guthrie (B)
2. Koji Uehara (B-/B)
3. Adam Eaton (D+)/ Chris Tillman (B)
4. Mark Hendrickson (C)/ Brian Matusz (B)
5. Rich Hill (B-/B)

Bullpen C (2010 B-)

CL Chris Ray (B)
LHP George Sherrill (B)
SU Matt Albers (B-)
SU Danys Baez (B-)
MR Jim Johnson (B)
LHP2 Jamie Walker (C+)
LRP Radhames Liz (B-)

2010 CL/SU Jake Arrieta (B+)

Lineup B/B+

CF Adam Jones (B)
2B Brian Roberts (A-)
OF Nick Markakis (A-)
1B Aubrey Huff (B/B+)
DH Luke Scott (B-)
LF Felix Pie (B-)
3B Melvin Mora (B-)
C Greg Zaun (C)/ Matt Wieters (A-)
SS Cesar Izturis (C/C+)

Bench B-

CI Ty Wigginton (B)
Util Ryan Freel (B-)
C Chad Moeller (B)
INF Chris Gomez (C)
OF/CI Nolan Reimold (C+/B-)

Minors B+/A-

C Matt Wieters (A-)
SP Chris Tillman (A-)
LHP Brian Matusz (B+)
P Jake Arrieta (B)
SP David Hernandez (B)
LHP Troy Patton (B-)
SP Chorye Spoon (C+/B-)
SP Kam Mickolio (C+/B-)
RP Hayden Penn (C+)

The Bullish & The Bearish: Fantasy Advice on Who to Keep and Who to Get Rid of

Buy

1. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: LaRoche has a career .294 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and a very sexy .897 OPS in the minors. His 2008 debut was horrid, batting well below the "Mendoza Line" with the Pirates and Dodgers. However since 2005, LaRoche has hit over .300 every year, and has slugged about .500 in each of those years. In 1,800 at bats he has also walked 243 times-proving that he as a good eye, even at such a young age. He has been working with his hitting coach to overcome the pressure that ruined his swing in 2008. His Spring has been fantastic.

2. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz shouldn't be compared to Hughes--he's better at every aspect of the game except their small gap in control that favors Hughes. His hammer-curve is one of the best in the minors and his 95 mph riding fastball is often unhittable when he places it well. His 2008 wasn't impressive--he posted an era over 6.00-- but with an aging pitching staff the Sox may very well have Bucky back in the rotation by the All Star Break.

3. Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics: Travis Buck is a hell of a hitter, hitting .326 in his minor league career. His line drive swing averages about 45 doubles in a full season, and he could easily go 20 homers and 50 doubles at some point. His horrid concussion kept him sidelined for most of 2008, but his hot September showed that he has recovered. 20 homers, 10 stolen bases, a .280-.300 batting average and 40 doubles is very possible for him this year.

4. Angel Salome, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Outside of his suddenly-decent-defense, Kendall has turned into an awful player. He has absolutely no power, and is unable to hit the ball out of the infield most of the time. He grounds into double plays and his sub .250 batting average was bad even for a catcher. Luckily th Brewers have Salome. The major-league-ready Salome won the AA batting title in his league in 2008 batting .360. He may only be 5'9".but his stocky build and his strong arm make him look like a young pudge. He may never hit more than 20 homers, but a .300 average at some point seems like a decent bet. Buy him now before too much hype makes him an early round fantasy pick. Oh and Brett Lawrie is good too.

5. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees: Most baseball fans know too little about Betances. The kid from the Bronx is a great guy--polite, kind and he regularly attends minor or and major league games to study other pitchers. He is 6'8" and has long arms and legs. He throws 93-97 mph fastballs that have considerable movement, as well as a knuckle curve that is developing into a plus-plus out pitch. He occasionally toys with a changeup, and it may be good at some point, but his two plus pitches are all he needs as of now, and they have made him an elite prospect.

Sell

1. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: In 1,175 at bats Ludwick has 65 homers, a .517 slugging percentage and 209 rbis. Ludwick is on the wrong side of thirty, and those nice career numbers are really only a product of his 2008 performance. He may not regress to an average level, but he certainly won't be as valuable as he was last year unless lightning strikes twice. Now, especially with a crowded outfield, The Cardinals will be more apt to bench Ludwick in unfavorable matchups.

2. Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers- Shoulder troubles ruin careers, and that's exactly what is happening to Hurley. Sadly, he hasn't even made a career out of his talent as of now. In his 580 innings in the minors he's struck out 534 and posted a nice 3.97 era, but hasn't blown away his competition. Now with shoulder trouble, his low-mid nineties fastball will regress to average and his breaking stuff will as well. Sell.


3. Greg Smith, LHP, Colorado Rockies- Smith has some elbow trouble and didn't have good stuff to begin with. His 4.16 era in 2008 was a product of the best pitcher's park in baseball, a young arm and some luck. Now in Colorado his era will raise a point, and if he makes it to 150 innings before his arm falls off he'd be lucky. In 190 innings pitched he gave up 21 homeruns. That number of bombs is horrible considering how difficult it is to hit in that stadium. In Colorado, he'll be spanked.

4. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners- Sell him while he's still in the top 100. He has never shown anything but average hitting ability, power and bad fielding. Now that he's an outfielder (not playing third since college) his value is almost nill. He has a career .798 OPS and a 2.74 batting average in the minors and most of those at bats were in AA or below. If he's posting average numbers in the low-mid level minors its hard for me to believe he'll be anything but decent--at best--in the majors.

5. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees- Kennedy doesn't have the talent to be a good major league starter--plus he's an asshole. His 87-90 mph fastball is straight and hittable. His 12-6 curve isn't special and he doesn't control it well, and his Vulcan change is his only plus pitch. His control was supposedly close to Mussina's, but from what I've seen, he's practically Victor Zambrano or Dennis Sarfate with his placement. Sell him now while theres still some hype surrounding him.