Friday, January 29, 2010

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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Dominican I.F.A. Rafael DePaula Back on Market

After being suspended by Major League Baseball for misrepresenting his age, the young, right-handed pitcher Rafael DePaula is once again fielding offers from MLB clubs. Just weeks ago DePaula and his agent considered beginning DePaula's professional career in Japan instead of the United States. However, the relatively minor level of deception that DePaula used (a matter of a few months) has probably allowed the Dominican teenager the opportunity to being his career in the US.

Numerous teams have resumed contacting/scouting DePaula. Both the Yankees and the Red Sox are reportedly interested in signing him. The seventeen year old righty wields a low 90s fastball and a repertoire of breaking pitches that have shown impressive potential. With further maturation and development, many scouts believe that DePaula will become a fire-balling ace, capable of launching mid-to-high 90s fastballs and spinning razor sharp sliders past opposing batters.

While no formal offers have been reported, DePaula should easily command a seven-figure contract. However, his age-misrepresentation offense won't be taken lightly by many clubs--especially those that have been burned in similar (but certainly more severe) cases in the past, and his final contract will definitely max out considerably below what it would have been, had he avoided being caught.

Below is a video of DePaula pitching for scouts while in the Dominican Republic. The video is from Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus.

Rafael DePaula from Kiley McDaniel on Vimeo.

Feeling Randy Baby-- Yankees Put Randy Winn in Pinstripes


After acquiring outfield prospect Greg Golson from the Texas Rangers earlier in the week, the Yankees signed former Giants left fielder, Randy Winn, to a one year deal worth at least two million dollars.

The switch-hitting Winn who turns 36-years-old in June, has a career .286 batting average and 209 stolen bases throughout his 12 seasons in the MLB. Although Winn is coming off one of the worst years of his career--batting .262 with just two home runs and posting a disappointing .671 OPS over 538 at bats-- the Yankees found his impressive and underrated defense in the outfield corners, where he has contended for a gold glove annually, as a justifiable reason to give him a deal. While Winn fits best in left field, where he will sport one of the best gloves in the American League, he is also capable of playing plus defense in right and even playing slightly-above-average defense in center.

His relatively cheap contract, positive clubhouse presence, professional bat and plus defense make signing Winn for a year a low-risk/relatively-nice-reward-deal. What's puzzling however is the glut of outfielders that can't hit lefties that the Yankees are now left with. While Winn has actually hit lefties at a decent clip throughout his career (.280 batting average, .758 OPS) he batted just .158 and posted an abominable .384 OPS against them in 2009. Curtis Granderson has posted a .614 OPS against lefties throughout his career, while Brett Gardner has posted a .627 OPS against southpaws in his. Gardner, however, improved his pitch recognition to the point where he actually hit southpaws slightly better than right-handers in 2009.

Signing Randy Winn would make sense, however, if GM Brian Cashman does indeed close the deal on Rocco Baldelli. While Baldelli, a former super-prospect, does have a debilitating illness--channelopathy-- that has robbed him of the ability to start everyday, he does provide a cheap, lefty-mashing bat. The 28-year-old outfielder has a career .495 slugging percentage and has an .831 OPS against lefties. Outside of his 2007 season, Rocco has never had an OPS below .786 when batting against lefty pitchers. Baldelli also has a strong, accurate arm, has plus baserunning instincts and speed, and can play all three outfield positions better than the average MLB outfielder.

Currently, Cashman seems content on the minor league deal he offered to Baldelli earlier in January. Signing the Rhode Island native to a minor league contract would allow the Yankees to keep Rule-5 Draft pick, outfielder Jamie Hoffman, on the roster until he proves either worthy or ineffective. If Hoffman does struggle, he could be stashed on the disabled list--something the Nationals and many other teams are notorious for doing with their Rule-5 picks-- after the first few weeks of the season, allowing Rocco the chance to claim his spot with the big club by June. If Hoffman refuses to be stashed on the DL, the Yankees could either give him more time or attempt to return him to the Nationals. Frankly, if the Yankees have to pay a small some of money to the Dodgers for returning Hoffman, they would still net a benefit from the Bruney-for-Hoffman trade by avoiding the expensive arbitration sum that a marginally useful Bruney would have commanded.

If the Yankees don't end up signing Rocco Baldelli, it has been rumored on MLBTR.com, that Johnny Gomes could be Cashman's backup plan if he is willing to accept a minor league contract. Like Baldelli, Gomes is a former Devil Ray whom is particularly adept at hitting lefties. Unfortunately Gomes can do little else--offering a poor glove, high strikeout rates and no speed.

Gol Tending
: Yankees Acquire Outfielder Greg Golson from Rangers

Just days before signing Randy Winn for 2010, the Yankees sent a failed prosect-- former Purdue star Mitch Hilligoss-- and cash to the Texas Rangers for another failed prospect, Greg Golson. After signing a failed ballplayer, Khalil Greene, the Rangers designated Golson for assignment and immediately started listening for offers.

Golson, rated as the "Best Athlete" in the Rangers system prior to the 2009 season by Baseball America was actually somewhat of a steal for the Yanks. While he hasn't lived up to expectations (barely posting a .700 OPS in 2,558 official at bats in the minors and going hitless in a handful of MLB at bats) since being drafted 21st overall by the Phillies in 2004, the 24-year-old outfielder does possess 5 tool talent and plus-to-plus-plus speed. Even if Golson fails to hit for the average and power that he was projected to have five years into his professional career, he still possesses a strong arm, plus outfield range and the ability to be a valuable pinch runner. While Brett Gardner seems to be well entrenched in the Yankees plans for 2010, using his top-shelf speed, strong arm, and adequate (yet somewhat soft) bat to secure about a half-season worth of playing time as defensive/stolen base specialist, Golson is a somewhat comparable option whom could be a nice insurance policy if Granderson, Gardner or Winn land on the DL. Before posting a forgettable 2009 at AAA Oklahoma within the Rangers organization, Golson had batted .282 with 13 bombs, 23 stolen bases in 2008, and had received praise for his small improvements on his sometimes spectacular/sometimes sloppy defense in center field.

Women May Work from Sun to Sun but a G.M.'s Work is Never...


Now that the Yankees' outfield is somewhat more stable than what it was coming in to the 2010 offseason, GM Brian Cashman will continue to wait for a few remaining players to fall in to his price range. With Baldelli somewhat close to signing, the acquisition of veteran backstop Mike Rivera, and the loss of Jerry Hairston Jr. to the Padres, Cashman will surely turn his attention to an infielder/utilityman who could compete for a spot on the bench this Spring. While Ramiro Pena is a nice fielder, capable of playing plus defense up the middle and playing a solid third base, his hitting leaves a lot to be desired. Free agents, Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson are both likely looking elsewhere for a starting job and/or more money than the Yankees can currently offer, however. Free agent Adam Kennedy wouldn't be enough of an improvement over Pena, and Orlando Cabrera is probably too expensive. Lefty Noah Lowry, coming off a two-year spat of thoracic outlet syndrome is worth a look for his bargain-level price tag and the Yankees' sparse supply of effective left-handed relievers. Marlins second baseman, Dan Uggla is still on the trading block and may be a good fit for the Yankees if he's willing to accept both a reduction in playing time and an increase in time at third base and (possibly) left field. Uggla's recent raise in salary would make him an expensive option as well. Frankly, Jerry Hairston Jr. was a very good fit for the Bombers, and unless Cashman can find someone comparable on the trade market, his loss will be felt in 2010.

Overall, signing Randy Winn, trading nothing of value for Greg Golson and offering Rocco Baldelli a reasonable contract have put the Yankees in a good spot for 2010. While their roster does have a few holes left in it, Brian Cashman has improved upon the 2009 team and has given the Steinbrenner's the flexibility to trade for a premium player this summer and/or to bid on Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, (possibly) Matt Cain, Mariano Rivera and (possibly) Aaron Harang next winter.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Red Ink: Cincinnati Reds Sign LHP Aroldis Chapman for $30 Million

That's right. The hype, drooling, bickering and agent-firing is finally over. Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman has signed with the Cincinnati Reds for upwards of $30 million dollars and is committed for a reported 5 years.

First it was Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan, then came a tidal wave of articles. Here are some of them:

From The Washington Post

From TSN

From Bleacher Report

From NESN

From Boston.com

Although Chapman is just 22 years old, he is considered to be the most talented international free agent pitcher since Daisuke Matsuzaka and even more intriguing than the Athletics' Michael Ynoa--last year's most discussed international free agent. Chapman posses a running fastball that reaches 100 mph, and sits in the 93-97 mph range. The young lefty also offers a plus to plus-plus power slider that is often clocked in the mid 80s. While he is currently a two-pitch pitcher, Chapman is also developing a average/plus curveball and a passable changeup.

Stephen Strasburg is still heralded as the supreme talent among MLB pitching prospects with a running fastball that is consistently clocked between 94-98 mph, a devastating power curve, a plus changeup and plus command. However, Strasburg is often touted as a once-in-a-decade prospect, and draws comparisons to Josh Beckett, Mark Prior, Todd Van Poppel and other former elite pitching prospects. While Chapman doesn't feature the talent that Strasburg possesses, he does feature a ceiling higher than any young lefty pitcher in the minors. Considering Martin Perez, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Matusz and Casey Crosby are part of a crop of young, supremely-talented lefty starters, Chapman certainly has considerable work in his future if he wants to match these other elite talents.

5-years and $30 million is far more than the four-year, $15.1-million-dollar deal that Strasburg and agent Scott Boras struck with the Nationals last August. However, the Nationals held exclusive rights to Strasburg after drafting him first, overall, last June. Strasburg could have commanded $50+ million on the open marker--a point that Scott Boras had often reminded Nationals GM Mike Rizzo in the months leading up to Strasburg's August signing. Still, $30 million for a prospect--one that has little experience pitching in the United States-- seems like a ridiculous number. Maybe it is a ridiculous number, but for MLB teams, who consider young pitchers--especially those that throw left-handed-- a valuable and volatile commodity, $30- mill, for a possible future ACE (or closer) is relative bargain. A relative bargain when the money invested in IFA's like Kei Igawa and Hideki Irabu by the Yankees, or the slew of fruitless signings of 16 year old Domincans and Venezuelans, each for millions of dollars, come to mind. Talent like Chapman's and the attention that he will draw, for $30 million, just isn't half-bad.

Chapman and his agents Randy and Alan Hendricks, struck a deal with the Cincinnati Reds--a team that hadn't made an audible amount of noise throughout the past few months of bidding on the young pitcher. First, the Red Sox offered Chapman about $14.5 million to sign with Boston, a number that was turned down by Chapman and his previous agent, Edwin Mejia. Then, after a pitching session that was attended by representatives from the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Reds, Athletics, Marlins and others, Chapman and his agents--once again--received a number of large offers. Chapman's pitching session wowed his audience with fastballs consistently in the mid-to-upper nineties, devastating sliders, and a 6'4", athletic build. His show dragged a number of teams that don't regularlry involve themselves in bidding wars for gold-plate free agents. Recently, the Marlins made the front page of the Miami Herald, with their statements about "opening their (small) wallets" to sign a talent like Chapman. The Marlins' front office offered the free agent about $16.5 million to play in Miami-- a city with a strong Cuban presence. Soon however, the Marlins were nudged out of the race by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels were the front runners to sign Chapman until this late move by the Reds--who offered a number almost %20 higher than that offered by the next highest bidder.

More on Chapman later.

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The Baseball Chronicle's Top 300 Prospects by Position for 2010, will be available early this week. The handbook is free, and features the most in depth and accurate scouting and analysis offered for free on the web.

An even more polished version of TBC's handbook, featuring more, and more advanced scouting reports for all MLB organizations is available by contacting me at rskelley9@gmail.com with the subject "2010 Prospect Handbook." The handbook will be $16.95 with $4.00 for S & H, and will be mailed on January 18, 2009.
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