Top 200 MLB Prospects for 2010: 51-100

2010 Top Prospects 1-50 Are Below this Post.

Click on the first Image below to see 2010 Top Prospects 51-79



Click on the below image to see 2010 Top Prospects 79-100



51-60. Most of the players listed in this range profile better as future MLB regulars than super stars. Donavan Tate doesn't fit this description. The Padres' third overall pick of the 2009 Amateur Draft was a very intelligent one. Tate has the speed and athletic prowess to be a Gold Glove centerfielder, and steal 30-40 bases annually. Tate has bat that could produce a .300 average some day, but more importantly 30-40 homers ("Taters") in his prime. Tate looks like he could be a future Grady Sizemore. Eric Hosmer had Lasic surgery this off-season and his hoping (along with the Royals management that signed him to the highest bonus in team history) that his bat will return for 2010. Hosmer has the power potential of Mark Teixeira, but needs considerable development. The Tigers' 2007 5th round pick, lefty Casey Crosby returned from Tommy John surgery throwing a 93-98 mph fastball and posted a 2.41 era with 117 k's through 104 innings in the Midwest League. His control needs more refining. Jake Arrieta spots his 91-95 mph heat well but has yet to develop a second MLB plus pitch, and hasn't shown an MLB approach to pitching. Jaff Decker, the 5'10" chubby left fielder has a sweet swing that could lead him to a .300 average in the MLB some day. However, is well below average speed, soft body and short stature keep scouts wary. The Tigers' Jake Turner is just 18, but has advanced breaking stuff and a fastball that could sit in the mid 90s with a few years of growth and development. Brett Lawrie the highest MLB draft pick (15th in '08) out of Canada in history, was moved from catcher to second base in 2009 and showed a glove that could be MLB average or slightly better some day. His strong hands/forearms give him superior bat control and his patient approach is beyond his years. With work he could develop in to an .800 MLB OPS rather easily. The Reds' Todd Frazier is still without a position . His bat isn't elite but he has the ability to stroke a near .300 average with 20 homers and 40 doubles in his MLB prime. He has the arm for third base, and the footwork for second but could end up being a Chase Headley in left field. Alex White the Indians' 2009 pick out of UNC has a plus-plus splitter and a riding fastball that sits in the 90-93 range (toping out at 95). His control needs work, and developing a change or improving his slider needs to happen before he can be considered a top pitching prospect. Cubs' shortstop Starlin Castro was ranked as the Cubs' top prospect in Baseball America's 2010 organizational rankings. At just 19 years old Castro made the 2009 MLB Futures game and was promoted to the Southern League by mid-season. Castro hit a combined .300, stole 28 bases and ripped 32 XBH's in 469 at bats. And although he did make 39 errors playing short, he was still considered the top fielding shortstop in the Florida State and Southern Leagues. His advocates consider him to be a future Tony Fernandez, with some even comparing his abilities to Derek Jeter.

61-70. Stanford alumnus, and Astros catching prospect Jason Castro doesn't have a top-tier ceiling, but his approach, intelligence and dedication have made him one of the top catching prospects in the game. In his first full season in the minors, Castro posted a .300 average and an .826 OPS between the California and Texas Leagues. He also threw out 45% of base stealers. Mets shortstop Wilmer Flores and Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas both had forgettable 2009 seasons after being heralded as five star prospects by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Both players will probably play an average to above average 3rd base in the future, and the younger Wilmer Flores has the better shot of becoming a big league regular at this point. Moustakas has been too aggressive at the plate and hasn't developed opposite field power yet-- if he can refine his approach he could still be an above average MLB hitter. Indians prospect Jason Knapp has struggled with shoulder problems lately, and this makes the trade for Cliff Lee look even better for the Phillies. If he can stay healthy however, the 6'5" Knapp could become an MLB ace or closer with his 94-98 mph fastball and hard slider. His control, delivery and secondary stuff all need work, and at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to work on them. Kyle Gibson was a steal for the Twins in the 2009 draft, falling into their laps because of a forearm stress fracture. Gibson's slider, changeup and control are all MLB plus, and his fastball can reach 92-93 mph often. Despite the injury, Gibson has the ability to reach the MLB quickly. Ike Davis finally started hitting homeruns in 2009 and then proceeded tear apart the Eastern League over the summer. Davis posted a .951 OPS with Binghampton and had 13 homers and 14 doubles in just 207 at bats. He strikes out a bit much, but as he adds muscle to his lean 6'5" frame, he could develop in to an impact MLB bat as well as a Gold Glove winner at first. Austin Jackson hit .300 with Scranton (AAA) in 2009 but hit just 4 home runs and struck out 123 tims (vs. just 40 walks) in 504 at bats. Jackson did however hit 9 triples, steal 24 bases and continue to develop toward one of the best defensive centerfielders in the minors. His athleticism keep him on this list, but his poor plate discipline, lack of power and less-than-elite speed keep his ceiling to MLB average. Splitting the season bewteen the Midwest and California Leagues, Padres' 3rd baseman James Darnell posted a ridiculous .960 OPS, hitting .311 and walloping 20 home runs, 35 doubles and four triples in just 457 at bats. Darnell is also lauded for his plate discipline, walking 87 times (vs. 89 k's) in '09. Despite his strong arm and plus range, Darnell is a poor fielder and needs to improve his hands considerably or he will end up as a corner outfielder. Drew Storen was considered by most to be an affordable, "safety pick" by the Nationals in the 2009 draft, but ended up becoming a top prospect by summers end after a dominating performance in the Eastern and Carolina Leagues. Storen's slider is an MLB plus-plus pitch, while his 93 MPH fastball and control are plus as well. The Nationals need bullpen help, and Storen will provide that help in 2010--maybe even becoming their closer. Dodgers shortstop prospect Dee Gordon, son of Tom "Flash" Gordon, has top tier speed and range, but his power, plate discipline and hands need work. If he can develop enough Gordon could be an above-average fielder, solid hitter and could steal 40-50 rather easily in the MLB.

71-80. The Kansas City Royals managed to get one of the 2009 draft's biggest steals by drafting Will Myers--a first round talent-- in the 3rd round. After signing, the young catcher quickly rewarded the Royals and posted a 1.106 OPS in 96 plate appearances in Rookie Ball. Myers has the potential to annually hit above .300 and slug above .500 in the MLB, and his cannon arm could make him a top notch catcher or third baseman. Angels' Trevor Reckling scores points for being left handed, otherwise he might not make the top 100. Reckling's fastball tops out at 91 and sits 87-90. His curveball has plus to plus-plus movement and his change is plus as well, making him very intriguing, but he only controls his fastball well. Tyler Clippard from the left side. Although Carlos Carrasco has ace potential with a plus-plus change and a fastball that reaches the mid-nineties regularly, his problems with homeruns and his knack for unraveling quickly have tarnished his prospect status. Matt Dominguez has yet to show much more than a plus glove with (gold glove potential), but Marlins' management believes he could be their new Mike Lowell by 2012. The big lefty, Aaron Poreda has a mid to high nineties fastball that helped him become the White Sox top Prospect in 2009. Now with the Padres, Poreda has the chance to make an impact quickly. His average breaking stuff, lack of a decent changeup and lackluster control suggest Poreda needs further seasoning however. The young Texan, Shelby Miller, was the Cardinals' first round draft pick in 2009 and has the best fastball of any of the 2009 Draft's high school pitchers. Miller's fastball has good movement and reaches 94 mph consistently. His curveball should be plus as well with some work. Miller is durable and athletic. At just 5'9" (really 5'7"), Twins Prospect Ben Revere, was considered a colossal stretch for the first round in 2007--the Twins didn't agree and picked him 28th. Revere quickly silenced his doubters and led the minors in batting (.379) in 2008. Revere features plus to plus-plus speed and rarely strikes out, but his lack of power (just 3 home runs in 1000 MiLB at bats) and weak arm make him a future Juan Pierre at best. Red Sox shortstopJose Iglesias was plucked out of the 2009 International FA market and has drawn numerous comparisons to Orlando Cabrera. His glove has the chance to be MLB plus-plus, but his bat lags well behind. The Marlins' young lefty Chad James has the best secondary pitch of any of his high school counterparts in the 2009 draft, with an advanced changeup. The pitch apparently has the ceiling of one of the best in the MLB, and because James could be hitting 93-94 mph on the radar gun in a few years, he could move quickly toward top prospect status. Josh Reddick has become a top prospect with his cannon arm, plus bat and surprising power. Reddick could be a gold glove outfielder one day, and with some added muscle could hit 25 MLB home runs as well. A Shawn Green comparison is a

81-90. Royals pitchers Tim Melville and Danny Duffy are two very different-- yet equally intriguing--young pitchers. Melville has the size and stuff, while Duffy has the craftiness and the handedness. A's shortstopGrant Green fell from a possible number 2 pick going in to 2009, all the way to the Athletics. Green has bat and approach to hit .300 and get on base near 38% of the time in the MLB, and with better footwork could win a Gold Glove at short. His strong arm is impressive. Lars Anderson fell apart in 2009 and lost 250 points in OPS. His size and batting potential still make him someone to keep an eye on. Junichi Tazawa has an impressive array of breaking pitches between his slider, curve and forkball. His control is another plus and his fastball (although straight) reaches 93-94 on occasion. He tires quickly however and needs seasoning in the minors. Brad Lincoln rebounded from surgery in 2009 and showed that his slider could still be an MLB plus pitch. Jake McGee hopes that he too can recover from surgery after losing most of 2009 to TJ surgery. Being a lefty with a 95 mph fastball and nasty breaking stuff make McGee a lock to get a look in the majors. His control issues and recent arm injury suggest alotting him to the bullpen however. Daniel Hudson is a pitcher I want to see succeed, but his stuff is still questionable. Hudson's changeup is plus, but he doesn't feature a reliable slider, and although his fastball has reached 93 on occasion he controls it better in the 87-90 range. Ryan Kalish is a very solid all-around player with a good approach, plus speed, good baserunning and a good bat. However, his arm strength is below average, his power won't transfer to the MLB and his speed isn't top-tier. Dodgers' prospect Scott Elbert has fallen from possible Ace starter to future MLB set-up man because of injuries and control issues. Still, being a lefty, Elbert's 90-95 mph fastball and nasty curveball ensure that he'll have success in some capacity at the MLB level. I still think he can be a very good starer.

91-100. Orioles third base prospect, Josh Bell, still insists remaining a switch hitter, even with such abominable platoon splits. Bell has plus power potential however, and he could end up being a solid third baseman in the MLB. Brad Holt may be an overrated Mets prospect, but he still possesses the breaking stuff to become a middle-to-backend starter on the Mets. Grant Desme, Oakland Athletics outfield prospect and shoulder surgery survivor tore apart the Midwest and California Leagues in 2009, bashing 31 homers, 31 doubles and 6 triples in 468 at bats. Then, in the Arizona Fall League, Desme was awarded the 2009 Joe Black MVP Award after leading the league in homers (11) and total bases (72). To go with his bat, Grant shows good instincts on the basepaths, stealing 40 bases in 2009. He doesn't have the speed to steal 40 in the MLB, but his above-average wheels and his saavy base running could heist 20 annually. The only part of his game that is suspect, is his contact--Desme struck out 148 times in 3/4 of a season in A-ball. Simon Castro has a fastball that sits in the 91-94 mph range and has a curve that is developing in to a plus MLB pitch. He lacks a usable changeup at this point. Jay Jackson is a hard thrower in the Cubs organization and often reachs 94-95 with his fastball. He has a good curve/slider combo as well, but still lacks a passable changeup and shows subpar control. The Dodgers' 2008 first round pick, Ethan Martin, has a fastball that sits in the 93-97 mpg range and a recently-developed, nasty power-curve. His control is well below average at this point, and his delivery and changeup both need years of refining. Italian third baseman Alex Liddi wasn't a prospect before his sensational 2009 performance in the California League. His 1.005 OPS led the League, and his 6'4" frame (although thin) suggest his numbers are more than a product of dry air. Carlos Triunfel missed most of 2009 due to injury, and at just 18 years old, the young infielder is still a mystery projection-wise. His bat could be MLB plus, but his average MLB speed, and his below-average power likely won't be useful anywhere but in the middle infield. Brandon Allen needs serious improvement in his plate discipline before he can be a successful MLB first baseman, but his size, power potential and recent success make him a candidate to be an MLB impact player for 2010. Brett Jackson was the 31st overall pick of the 2009 draft, but has the tools of a top 10 pick. Jackson has plus speed, plus power potential and could win a Gold Glove in the MLB. His strikeouts are his only question mark thus far.

Dropped off the Top 100:

Outfielder Andrew Lambo has shown little promise after being touted as having "light-tower power" potential by Baseball America in 2008. With a better approach, Lambo could still be an impressive hitter, although his poor defense, below average speed and novice plate discipline could keep his ceiling to fourth outfielder.

Bibliography:

Callis, Jim, Will Lingo, and Jim Shonerd. "Top Prospects by League." Baseball America Prospect Rankings. Baseball America, 1 Oct. 2010. Web. 1 Nov. 2010. .

Jaffe, Jay, Joe Sheehan, and Will Caroll. "PECOTA Card." Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. Web.

SABR Minor Leagues Database, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith. "Baseball Reference." Minor League Baseball History- Baseball-Reference.com. Sports Reference LLC. Web.

Top 200 MLB Prospects for 2010: 26-50

Please click the following image to view prospects 26-50. Prospects 1-25 can be found in the previous post (immediately below this one).


Click the above Image to see Prospects 26-50.


26-30. Michael Taylor, the 6'6", 250 pound Stanford Alumnus and Reading left fielder tore apart the Eastern and International Leagues last year, especially early on, hitting .329 with a .549 slugging percentage, 20 bombs, 21 stolen bags in 428 at bats. His bat continued to develop, and his 53 extra base hits helped dispel any doubts that scouts had had about his power potential. At 6'5" and 250 pounds it's hard to believe there were any doubts to begin with. Taylor has plus speed and could steal 20 bases in the MLB. He has good range in left, but his arm is just adequate-- making him a good bet to be a left fielder, or even DH (if traded) in the MLB. Alcides Escobar had another nice year hitting .298 and stealing 42 bases in AAA Nashville before taking over for J.J. Hardy in the MLB and hitting at an even better clip-- batting .304 in 134 late summer plate appearances. His power and patience are both sub par and haven't seen much development, but because his platinum glove is considered the best in the minors he'll be one of the better all-around short stops in the NL. Marlins first base prospect Logan Morrison a third of the 2009 season with a broken wrist, but came back in an impressive way, posting an .854 OPS in 278 Southern League at bats. Possibly more impressive was Morrison's approach at the plate, walking 63 times vs. 46 strikeouts (1.37 BB/K rate). He hasn't shown any elite abilities, but his solid approach, decent glove, and his potential to have a plus bat and plus power keep make him an intriguing prospect. The Braves' Julio Teheran, a teenage string bean with a fireball fastball and a plus to plus-plus changeup, continued to wow scouts with his stuff. Through 43 innings for Danville, Teheran posted a K/BB ratio of 5.57 and an era of 2.68. He got roughed up a bit in single A in the second half of the season, but considering he's just 18, his performance was impressive. His mid 90s running fastball is fantastic, and his could be plus-plus when he reaches the MLB. Boston's 2008 draft pick, Ryan Westmoreland came roaring back from shoulder surgery and displayed his true 5-tool talent. In 233 at bats in the New York Penn League, Westmoreland posted an .885 OPS, smacked 15 doubles, 3 triples and 7 home runs, and stole 19 bases without being caught once. Although he DH'd for most of the year, once he recovers he could become the Red Sox version of Grady Sizemore in centerfield. His defense may end up being a tick below Sizemore's, but the other tools are there.

31-35. Jenrry Mejia continues to thrill the Mets with his 90-95 MPH fastball that features some of the best fastball movement in the minors. After dominating the Florida State League with a 1.97 era in 50 innings, Mejia posted solid numbers in AA for the remainder of the season. In 94 innings total Mejia gave up just two home runs. Because of his thin stature, and his lack of secondary stuff (although his curveball has plus potential), Mejia will probably start in the bullpen with the Mets. Casey Kelly, the Red Sox 2008 first round pick in the 2008 draft, showed that his future is in an MLB pitching rotation. Considered to be the most athletic pitcher in the minors, Kelly spent the first half of the season getting opposing batters to pound his sinking fastball into the ground and the second half making slick picks at short. Kelly controls his 88-93 mph two-seamer extremely well, and mixes in an MLB strikeout curve to whiff batters when he needs to. His 1.12 era in 47 innings with class A Greenville earned him a promotion to the Carolina League where he finished the season with a 3.09 era through 8 starts. Although his stuff won't make him a true ace, he has a very good chance at being a top tier 2-3 starter in the Red Sox rotation. Jhoulys Chacin continued his rise to the majors in 2009, finally making it in a brief stint as a reliever. After posting a nice season between the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues, where he had 3.21 combined ERA, Chacin was called up to the majors. In his brief stint, J.C. showed that he still needs some work on his control (walking eleven batters in eleven innings). His 92-94 MPH fastball is impressive and his change has developed in to an MLB strikeout pitch. Aaron Crow The Nationals' first-round pick in the 2008 draft, and the Royals first pick in the 2009 draft, has loads of potential and likely has a future as a top tier MLB starter or a power closer/reliever. He controls all of his pitches well, and wields a 91-96 mph fastball (often toughing 97) and a plus to plus-plus slider. His changeup is still in development. Fernando Martinez has been cursed with developing too quickly, too early. New York expects a bit too much from the kid, too early on. Still just 21 years old, Martinez's fielding and speed have regressed a bit, but his bat projects to be a powerful one. In 176 at bats with AAA Binghampton, Martinez slugged .540, hitting 8 homers, 16 doubles and 2 triples.

36-40. The D'Backs' small-framed righty, Jarrod Parker will miss 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Still, Parker projects to be a top notch pitcher, and his 2009 performance between A Advanced and AA supports everything scouts like about his stuff and approach. After T.J. surgery, Parker may have to scrap his high 80's slider, and stick to his plus curve, and newly developed change. Hitting for power, and drawing walks have made Tyler Flowers a top of the second-tier catching prospect. Although Flowers doesn't have the batting potential of Jesus Montero, or the defensive potential of Buster Posey, Flowers should be average behind the plate and plus in the box. Spending the season between the Southern and International Leagues in 2009, Flowers hit a combined .297 with 15 home runs, 28 doubles and 67 walks in 353 at bats. Aaron Hicks' best asset is his golden arm which is an easy 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. With that in mind, it has puzzled many scouts that the Twins have insisted on keeping Hicks in center field, rather than using his 97 mph heater on the mound. Despite his unimpressive 2009 stat line--.251/.353/.382 in the Midwest League, the kid has shown the tools to be a 20-20 player in the MLB some day, in the Adam Jones/Curtis Granderson mold. If all else fails he could be a fireballer out of the bullpen. Jordan Lyles, the Astros' second pick of the '08 draft added some cheese to his 88-93 mph fastball, and continued to refine his array of plus breaking pitches. Lyles' 6'4" frame, and long arms give his delivery "easy speed," making him a likely future MLB innings eater. In 144 innings in 2009 with Lexington, Lyles struck out 167 and posted a 3.24 era. Indians prospect Lonnie Chisenhall made the Futures Game with his impressive 2009 campaign in the Carolina League. Chisenhall hit 18 home runs and 26 doubles througout 388 at bats in the humid Carolina air. Although his defense isn't as impressive as his bat, the former short stop should be able to hold his own (with work) in the MLB.

41-50. Brett Wallace's elephant legs allow him to generate a controlled/balanced swing that could help guide him toward a .300 batting average and 20-30 homers in the MLB one day. Between two leagues, two organizations, and three teams in 2009, Wallace hit .293 with 20 homers and found a groove with Sacramento in the Pacific Coast League where he showed off his ability with an .870 OPS. His below average speed and range limit his fielding potential, but his strong arm and good hands should keep him at third for at least a few years before he inevitably moves to first. The Rockies' 2009 first rounder Tyler Matzek seems to have a bright future after his emergence at the 2008 Aflac game. The young lefty also features a 90-95 mph fastball, a plus curve, a developing change and a developing slider. His fluid, easy delivery, plus control and plus fastball make him a nice pick for the Rockies. Derek Norris the young Nationals catcher is the National's Minor League Player of the Year for 2009 and the Sally League's offensive MVP. His patience, above average power and bat, and developing defense have made him one of the top catching prospects in the minors. Although his league leading 28 past balls in 2009 were a blemish, his strong arm and solid movement behind the plate suggest that he has a future there. Reid Brignac has lost a bit on his bat, but has gained plenty on D'. All around, Brignac could be at the top of the AL in defense at short while hitting .280-.300 with 15-20 homers some day. The Indians' Hector Rondon shot all the way up to AAA in 2009 with his polished fastball. His lack of dependable secondary pitches could send him to the bullpen soon. Tanner Scheppers is a wild card due to his shoulder issues, but his 93-98 MPH electric fastball keeps his ceiling sky-high. His power breaking ball is also a plus offering. Third baseman Josh Vitters made the futures game in 2009 and has impressed his coaches and counterparts with his bat--easily the best in the Cubs' system and one of the best in the minors. His lack of plate discipline and poor work ethic have caused his stock to drop a bit, however. Michael Saunders, the Mariners' favorite Canadian outfield prospect, had a nice season after returning from labrum surgery. Saunders hit .310 with a .922 OPS in the Pacific Coast League in 2009, and has the range (above average speed) and arm to play center one day. His plus base running nicely rounds-out his game. Michael Montgomery, the Royals young lefty has the potential to wield three plus pitches with plus control. In 110 innings pitched in 2009, the 20 year old struck out 98 and gave up just one home run while posting a 2.21 era. Dodgers flamethrower Chris Withrow rounds out my top 50 with his 96 mph fastball. Withrow's numbers aren't particularly impressive (outside of his 10.9 K/9 in 2009) due to his control issues. His stuff is top-tier however.


Bibliography:

Callis, Jim, Will Lingo, and Jim Shonerd. "Top Prospects by League." Baseball America Prospect Rankings. Baseball America, 1 Oct. 2010. Web. 1 Nov. 2010. .

Jaffe, Jay, Joe Sheehan, and Will Caroll. "PECOTA Card." Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. Web.

SABR Minor Leagues Database, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith. "Baseball Reference." Minor League Baseball History- Baseball-Reference.com. Sports Reference LLC. Web.

Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2010: 1-25

The above list is the first segment of the 200 player list that I've composed over the past thirty days. The eligibility requirements for this list are somewhat similar to those for Baseball America. The requirements are: a maximum of 150 career MLB at bats for non-pitchers, 50 career MLB innings pitched for starting pitchers, 25 career MLB innings pitched for relief pitchers.

These rankings take in to account batting and fielding abilities and statistics, age, height, weight and body type, baseball experience and position played. Their distance to the MLB is less of a factor than in Baseball America's rankings; Younger prospects that likely won't play for an MLB team in 2010 won't be ranked much lower than prospects identical in talent, but closer to the MLB.

The numerical scouting ratings (20-80) are all projections. A scouting rating of "80" for a fastball, means that the pitch will be one of the top pitches in professional baseball during the pitchers' prime years. 80's are rare, and are given for a Johan Santana change-up, Greg Maddux control and Adam Dunn power. A "50" grade represents the Major League average, "60" is fringe All-Star, and 40 is below average. A grade of 20 is given to poor minor league abilities (Sean Casey speed).

For players ranked 1-10, I offer MLB Comparisons using my own observations and statistics as well as some that I've found through The Baseball Prospectus. I generally shoot for a comparison of 80% of what that player could be if their development continues according to plan, and isn't halted by injuries, off the field issues etc... The comparisons are crude.

To view the Top 25, please click on the above image. The following is an in-depth look at each prospect featured in my Top 25 prospect rankings.


1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals- Strasburg leads this list without pitching in a single professional game outside of the Arizona Fall League. He's easily the most lauded prospect of this years' list, and probably the most talked about of the past decade. His 4-seam fastball--often said to hit 102 mph--sits in the 95-99 range and he has mastered control of it. This pitch projects to be one of the best in the MLB in his prime. He also features a 2-seamer with good movement that sits between 94-96 mph, an overpowering slider in the high 80s (often in the 90s), and a developing change (that could grade plus with work). The whole package makes Strasburg an elite prospect. He simply doesn't have an MLB comparison (without getting too far ahead and comparing him to the best ever), but his prospect hype and his stuff make Josh Beckett the closest available comparison.
MLB Comparison: Josh Beckett (a very good chance for more)

2. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves- Heyward will be ranked as the number 1 prospect on most top prospect lists for 2010. He's a true 5 tool player, with a great bat, great arm, plus speed, a 6'4" 220 frame and he has consistently proven himself in the minors. Just 19 years old for most of the season, Heyward posted a .963 OPS in 363 at bats between A Advanced, AA and a few AAA games. Heyward doesn't have a single hole in his game, and rates plus to plus-plus on every tool. Although he's a right fielder at the moment, he has the range and athleticism to a be very good center fielder. He doesn't quite have the power of Strawberry, but the rest of his game is similar. And barring the injuries and slow starts that hampered Cliff Floyd and J.D. Drew, Heyward looks like he could be one of the top outfield prospects of the past twenty years. Some compare him to Willie McCovey, I'd say he's more Vladamir Guerrero or Vernon Wells.
MLB Comparison: Vernon Wells

3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers- Feliz could easily be number 1 on this list-- he would have been in many previous years. His 95-101 mph fastball is absolutely electric, and his hard slider is a top of the line secondary pitch. In his MiLB career, he's struck out 325 batters in 276 innings and he whiffed 11.3 batters per 9 innings as an MLB reliever in 2009. It's difficult to find a comparison to Feliz due to his rare mix of stuff and his ripped/wiry physique, but he's somewhere between Ramon Martinez and Ubaldo Jiminez. The Rangers are slotting him in as a starter for 2010, but at the very least he'll be a very effective back of the 'pen reliever. He still needs to harness his control, and work on hiding his pitches a bit better.
MLB Comparison: Ubaldo Jiminez

4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates- Alvarez looked shaky in the first half of 2009, and he was reported to be "out of shape" by his coaches during Spring Training. He then regained his thunderous step in Altoona by June and showed his immense talent for the rest of the 2009 season. In 222 Eastern League at bats, Alvarez hit .333 and mashed 13 home runs and 18 doubles sending his OPS over 1.000. Not a fantastic fielder, he has the tools to be a solid third baseman (sporting a strong arm) and plus at first. His power is tops, and when he's on, his batting is fantastic. He needs to improve his strikeout rate, but there isn't much else that needs work in his batting game.
MLB Comparison: Miguel Cabrera

5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants- Posey has shown that he has the skill set to be one of the top 5 MLB catchers within the next couple of years. He has the bat to win a batting title and the arm and range to win a Gold Glove. His power will probably level off in the 15-20 homers area, but he could hit 40 doubles with ease. In 2009 he put up near identical numbers between AA and AAA, and batted .325 with 18 homers and 31 doubles to go with 62 walks (vs. just 68 strikeouts) in 422 at bats. He even has good 1st-3rd speed. Depending on what the Giants do in the offseason, Posey could even get a few reps at short this Spring.
MLB Comparison: Between Jason Kendall (pre-injury) and Victor Martinez.

6. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees- Montero, the young Venezuelan backstop is one of the top International Free agent signees of the past decade. Scouts have consistently rated his power as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and a few of the less conservative have been quoted in comparing his bat to a young Alex Rodriguez's. Indeed, Montero has the highest offensive potential on this list, posting a .951 OPS with a .337 batting average and 17 home runs in 347 at bats between Tampa A+ and Trenton AA as one of the youngest among his peers (19). His average-at-best potential behind the plate takes him back a few ranks-- throwing out just 20% of base runners (13% in A+) and allowing 11 passed balls in 2009. The Yankees think he can stay there with work, and I agree. There simply isn't an active comparison, but Aramis Ramirez is somewhat similar at the dish.
MLB Comparison: Aramis Ramirez

7. Michael Stanton, RF, Florida Marlins- Stanton has 80 power and is the closest thing to a guarantee for more than 30 home runs annually in the MLB, that one could possibly expect from a prospect that still can't legally order a beer in a Miami bar. At age 18, Stanton tore apart the Sally League in 2008, belting 39 homers and slugging .611. Between the Florida State League and Southern League in 2009, he was less impressive but still managed to slug .501 in 479 at bats, and had an OPS of .968 with Jupiter. He needs to work on his patience and contact--still striking out far more than he walks, but his strong arm and solid range make his defense in right field another possible plus. He could be Eric Davis or Andruw Jones at the plate, or he could be Karim Garcia. There is still a considerable space between Stanton and MLB stardom, but he has the bat.
MLB Comparison: Jermaine Dye

8. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles- The tall lefty doesn't throw hard for someone who is 6'5", but his fastball can still reach 93-94 at times. Matusz's pull resides in his control and his variety of plus pitches. Matusz throws a plus change, a plus curve and a solid slider. With continued development his curve could be his best offering, but currently his change is his best pitch, rating as one of the best secondary pitches in the 2008 draft by Baseball America. In 121 innings between A+ and AA, Matusz led his peers with a 1.91 ERA, and posted 121 strikeouts (vs. 32 walks) in 113 innings. He also went 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA (inflated by a poor first start), and 38 k's in 44 MLB innings. Currently he looks like he could be a lesser Cole Hamels, or a new Greg Swindell.
MLB Comparison: Cole Hamels

9. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers- Smoak is one of the more well-rounded prospects on this list and will probably succeed in the majors with his exceptional discipline, adept batting eye and plus defense. He has a very good bat, and although he has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira, his power potential isn't quite as impressive, but he could still approach 30 homers. In 183 at bats in the Texas League in 2009, Smoak batted .328 with a .449 OBP, six homers and ten doubles. He stumbled in AAA, but still has the ability to be a very good MLB first baseman, very soon. Will "The Thrill" Clark could be a decent comparison with a little bit of luck.
MLB Comparison: Will Clark

10. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians- Santana won the Eastern League MVP in 2009, posting an impressive .943 OPS, ranking second with 23 homeruns, and leading the league in walks with 90 (vs. 83 k's). His arm has been rated a "70" on many scouting scales, including Baseball America's Jim Callis', but his receiving and footwork still need seasoning. Either way, Santana's potential and current abilities make him a clear candidate for becoming a top MLB catcher within the next few years. Another tough prospect to find a comparison to, he's somewhere between Russell Martin and Brian McCann when tools and ceiling are put together. He doesn't quite have the swing or build to match his minor league numbers in the majors, but given enough at bats, he could post 20 homers and an OBP around .380. The 2009 catching job is his for the taking, and while he could turn out to be Roberto Petagine, I think he'll be closer to Jorge Posada with the bat.
MLB Comparison: Jorge Posada (less bat, lighter on his feet, quicker development)

11-15. This year's Top 25' has a number of very good pitchers (especially lefties), and a lack of top-tier middle infielders. Madison Bumgarner has the potential to be one of the better left-handed pitchers in the NL, but his fastball (his bread and butter) didn't reach the mid-nineties in his MLB debut- sitting in the 88-91 MPH range and surprising many of his fans. This is certainly worrisome considering his insistence on living off of the pitch-- something he's done for most of his career.But his fastball control is unmatchable, and his developing curve has promise. Christian Friedrich has one of the best curveballs in the minors, and after striking out 159 batters in 119 innings between Asheville and Modesto, Friedrich looks like a future star, and yet another promising pitcher in the Rockies system. The recent Cuban defector, Aroldis Chapman, another left-handed pitching prospect, has been wowing scouts, recently, with his 93-98 MPH fastballs (his four-seamer reaches 100 mph on occasion) and plus breaking pitches. He has the build and body to be an MLB starter, but may end up being a high-priced, high-end MLB Closer in the Billy Wagner mold. Martin Perez, yet another young (emphasis on young at 18) lefty prospect has drawn comparisons to Johan Santana with his 91-95 mph fastball and superb change. At just 18 years old, Perez made it all the way to the Texas League in 2009, after posting a 2.31 ERA and striking out 105 in 93 innings in class A. Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings has excellent wheels, and is plus-plus on the base paths. The young burner batted .318 with 67 walks (vs. 67 k's) and stole 52 bases (caught just 7 times) between the Southern and International Leagues. His power is more of the gap type, but he still has the ability to approach Carl Crawfordian numbers in the MLB.

16-20. After a dominant 2009 season, Kyle Drabek--son of former Cy Young Award winer Doug Drabek-- has taken his post as the top pitcher in Philadelphia's farm system. Drabek tore apart the Florida State League with a 2.48 ERA and 74 K's in 61 innings. He also held his own in the Eastern League in the season's second half, going 8-2 with 3.64 ERA in 96 innings. K.D.'s fastball is often clocked in the mid 90s, and his 75-80 mph spike curve is an MLB strikeout pitch. Dustin Ackley, the consolation prize to Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 Draft, finished his college career with a batting average above .400 at UNC, and has the ability to win an MLB batting title one day. He has plus speed, and with some added muscle could hit 20 homers in the big leagues. He has the range and athleticism to be a plus MLB center fielder, but his recovery from Tommy John Surgery will determine his defensive ceiling. Chris Carter, the Athletics tops prospect strikes out a bit much, and despite a good arm doesn't have the glove skills to hold an MLB position just yet. Carter has immense power though, and tore apart the Texas League with a .337 batting average, 24 home runs and 41 doubles in 490 at bats in 2009. He could easily slot in as the A's DH in 2010. Wade Davis, leads the Rays' pack of top, young pitchers, and his 93-96 MPH fastball and solid breaking stuff have left a spot in the rotation open for him for 2010. The 6'5" righty had a very promising debut with the Rays in September, posting a 3.72 ERA and striking out 32 in 32 innings. Freddie Freeman, the 6'5" first basemen in the Braves' system, established himself as a top prospect with a 2008 South Atlantic League Performance that included an .899 OPS and a .316 batting average. In 2009 he continued to show his talent, still just 19 years old by the end of the season, batting .302 with 19 doubles and an .841 OPS in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League.

21-25. The Rays featured 5 prospects in my top 25 for 2010, and the final three lay in this range. Matt Moore emerged as a lights-out, future ace pitching for Bowling Green in class A for all of 2009. He struck out an astonishing 176 batters in 123 innings with a late-moving 4-seamer clocked in the 89-95 mph range, a tight curve that will probably be a plus MLB pitch and a developing change which could rate above average one day. Jeremy Hellickson is another promising Rays arm, and sports a 90-93 sinking 2-seamer and a change that will probably be plus at the MLB level. Hellickson's command and polish are his strong points, and his ability to spot his fastball have made him a top prospect. After giving up 22 home runs in 2008, Hellickson gave up just 8 in 114 innings between AA and AAA in 2009. He posted a 2.45 ERA, and gave up 5.7 hits and struck out 10.4 per 9 innings pitched. His less than intimidating frame and his previous troubles with the long ball keep him behind Davis and Moore. Dominic Brown, an outfielder in the Phillies organization, has the mix of tools to break the top 15 on this list, but is downgraded due to his current lack of anything plus-plus on offense. Brown hit .299 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases (although he was caught 10 times) in 295 at bats between A+ and AA. He showed plus defense in right field. He has the potential to be a very good major leaguer with some polish, and looks like a Brian Jordan type. Tim Beckham, the no. 1 overall pick in the 2008 Draft, has yet to breakout and really show his potential, but still has flashed his skills, particularly in the second half of 2009. He has the batting ability to hit .300 and approach 15-20 homers in the MLB some day, and has the athletic ability to be one of the top fielding shortstops in the minors. Many at Baseball America have jumped ship because of his 43 errors and added size in 2009, but I still am a believer in his tools and believe he'll be at short-- or at the very least, second when/if he makes the MLB. His speed is the 1st-3rd variety, and will probably be expressed in doubles and triples rather than stolen bases. Reds first base prospect, Yonder Alonso rounds out my top 25 with his advanced approach, and plus bat. He missed much of 2009 due to injury, but still managed to impress with his .880 OPS in the Florida State League, and his .292 batting average and 41 walks (vs. 46 strikeouts) in 295 at bats between the Florida State and Southern League. His speed and range are below average, and overall he projects to be an average-at-best first baseman defensively. With Joey Votto in the MLB, look for Alonso to find a new home elsewhere for 2010.

Top 200 Prospects Report Schedule:
26-50: November 12th
51-100: November 15h
100-200: November 18th


Bibliography:

Callis, Jim, Will Lingo, and Jim Shonerd. "Top Prospects by League." Baseball America Prospect Rankings. Baseball America, 1 Oct. 2010. Web. 1 Nov. 2010. .

Jaffe, Jay, Joe Sheehan, and Will Caroll. "PECOTA Card." Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC. Web.

SABR Minor Leagues Database, Tom Tango, and Sean Smith. "Baseball Reference." Minor League Baseball History- Baseball-Reference.com. Sports Reference LLC. Web. .

Thanks to EJMAbaseball.com and PhillyNews.com for the Strasburg and Drabek pictures.


My grades are based primarily on my personal analysis and investigation, but do often consider the analysis of professional scouts and baseball analysts, primarily at Baseball America. I also may include the analysis of qualified peers. I do give credit to all of those that contribute.